Polygenic risk modeling for prediction of epithelial ovarian cancer risk

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) have the potential to improve risk stratification. Joint estimation of Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) effects in models could improve predictive performance over standard approaches of PRS construction. Here, we implemented computationally efficient, penalized, logistic regression models (lasso, elastic net, stepwise) to individual level genotype data and a Bayesian framework with continuous shrinkage, “select and shrink for summary statistics” (S4), to summary level data for epithelial non-mucinous ovarian cancer risk prediction. We developed the models in a dataset consisting of 23,564 non-mucinous EOC cases and 40,138 controls participating in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC) and validated the best models in three populations of different ancestries: prospective data from 198,101 women of European ancestries; 7,669 women of East Asian ancestries; 1,072 women of African ancestries, and in 18,915 BRCA1 and 12,337 BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers of European ancestries. In the external validation data, the model with the strongest association for non-mucinous EOC risk derived from the OCAC model development data was the S4 model (27,240 SNPs) with odds ratios (OR) of 1.38 (95% CI: 1.28–1.48, AUC: 0.588) per unit standard deviation, in women of European ancestries; 1.14 (95% CI: 1.08–1.19, AUC: 0.538) in women of East Asian ancestries; 1.38 (95% CI: 1.21–1.58, AUC: 0.593) in women of African ancestries; hazard ratios of 1.36 (95% CI: 1.29–1.43, AUC: 0.592) in BRCA1 pathogenic variant carriers and 1.49 (95% CI: 1.35–1.64, AUC: 0.624) in BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers. Incorporation of the S4 PRS in risk prediction models for ovarian cancer may have clinical utility in ovarian cancer prevention programs.

ExPRSweb - An Online Repository with Polygenic Risk Scores for Common Health-related Exposures

Complex traits are influenced by genetic risk factors, lifestyle, and environmental variables, so called exposures. Some exposures, e.g., smoking or lipid levels, have common genetic modifiers identified in genome-wide association studies. Since measurements are often unfeasible, Exposure Polygenic Risk Scores (ExPRSs) offer an alternative to study the influence of exposures on various phenotypes. Here, we collected publicly available summary statistics for 28 exposures and applied four common PRS methods to generate ExPRSs in two large biobanks, the Michigan Genomics Initiative and the UK Biobank. We established ExPRS for 27 exposures and demonstrated their applicability in phenome-wide association studies and as predictors for common chronic conditions. Especially, the addition of multiple ExPRSs showed, for several chronic conditions, an improvement compared prediction models that only included traditional, disease-focused PRSs. To facilitate follow-up studies, we share all ExPRS constructs and generated results via an online repository called ExPRSweb.

Polygenic transcriptome risk scores (PTRS) can improve portability of polygenic risk scores across ancestries

Background Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are valuable to translate the results of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) into clinical practice. To date, most GWAS have been based on individuals of European-ancestry leading to poor performance in populations of non-European ancestry. Results We introduce the polygenic transcriptome risk score (PTRS), which is based on predicted transcript levels (rather than SNPs), and explore the portability of PTRS across populations using UK Biobank data. Conclusions We show that PTRS has a significantly higher portability (Wilcoxon p=0.013) in the African-descent samples where the loss of performance is most acute with better performance than PRS when used in combination.

Genetic determinants of polygenic prediction accuracy within a population

Genomic risk prediction is on the emerging path towards personalized medicine. However, the accuracy of polygenic prediction varies strongly in different individuals. In this study, based on up to 352,277 White British participants in the UK Biobank, we constructed polygenic risk scores for 15 physiological and biochemical quantitative traits after performing genome-wide association studies (GWASs). We identified 185 polygenic prediction variability quantitative trait loci (pvQTLs) for 11 traits by Levene’s test among 254,376 unrelated individuals. We validated the effects of pvQTLs using an independent test set of 58,927 individuals. A score aggregating 51 pvQTL SNPs for triglycerides had the strongest Spearman correlation of 0.185 (p-value < 1.0x10−300) with the squared prediction errors. We found a strong enrichment of complex genetic effects conferred by pvQTLs compared to risk loci identified in GWASs, including 89 pvQTLs exhibiting dominance effects. Incorporation of dominance effects into polygenic risk scores significantly improved polygenic prediction for triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, vitamin D, and platelet. After including 87 dominance effects for triglycerides, the adjusted R2 for the polygenic risk score had an 8.1% increase on the test set. In addition, 108 pvQTLs had significant interaction effects with measured environmental or lifestyle exposures. In conclusion, we have discovered and validated genetic determinants of polygenic prediction variability for 11 quantitative biomarkers, and partially profiled the underlying complex genetic effects. These findings may assist interpretation of genomic risk prediction in various contexts, and encourage novel approaches for constructing polygenic risk scores with complex genetic effects.

Genetic liability to rheumatoid arthritis on autism and autistic traits: polygenic risk score and Mendelian randomization analyses

Higher prevalence of autism in offspring born to mothers with rheumatoid arthritis has been reported in observational studies. We investigated (a) the associations between maternal and offspring’s own genetic liability for rheumatoid arthritis and autism-related outcomes in the offspring using polygenic risk scores (PRS) and (b) whether the effects were causal using Mendelian randomization (MR). Using the latest genome-wide association (GWAS) summary data on rheumatoid arthritis and individual-level data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, United Kingdom, we constructed PRSs for maternal and offspring genetic liability for rheumatoid arthritis (single-nucleotide polymorphism [SNP] p-value threshold 0.05). We investigated associations with autism, and autistic traits: social and communication difficulties, coherence, repetitive behaviours and sociability. We used modified Poisson regression with robust standard errors. In two-sample MR analyses, we used 40 genome-wide significant SNPs for rheumatoid arthritis and investigated the causal effects on risk for autism, in 18,381 cases and 27,969 controls of the Psychiatric Genetics Consortium and iPSYCH. Sample size ranged from 4992 to 7849 in PRS analyses. We found little evidence of associations between rheumatoid arthritis PRSs and autism-related phenotypes in the offspring (maternal PRS on autism: RR 0.89, 95%CI 0.73–1.07, p = 0.21; offspring’s own PRS on autism: RR 1.11, 95%CI 0.88–1.39, p = 0.39). MR results provided little evidence for a causal effect (IVW OR 1.01, 95%CI 0.98–1.04, p = 0.56). There was little evidence for associations between genetic liability for rheumatoid arthritis on autism-related outcomes in offspring. Lifetime risk for rheumatoid arthritis has no causal effects on autism.

Improving Machine Learning Prediction of ADHD Using Gene Set Polygenic Risk Scores and Risk Scores from Genetically Correlated Phenotypes

Background: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs), which sum the effects of SNPs throughout the genome to measure risk afforded by common genetic variants, have improved our ability to estimate disorder risk for Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) but the accuracy of risk prediction is rarely investigated. Methods: With the goal of improving risk prediction, we performed gene set analysis of GWAS data to select gene sets associated with ADHD within a training subset. For each selected gene set, we generated gene set polygenic risk scores (gsPRSs), which sum the effects of SNPs for each selected gene set. We created gsPRS for ADHD and for phenotypes having a high genetic correlation with ADHD. These gsPRS were added to the standard PRS as input to machine learning models predicting ADHD. We used feature importance scores to select gsPRS for a final model and to generate a ranking of the most consistently predictive gsPRS. Results: For a test subset that had not been used for training or validation, a random forest (RF) model using PRSs from ADHD and genetically correlated phenotypes and an optimized group of 20 gsPRS had an area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.70 to 0.74). This AUC was a statistically significant improvement over logistic regression models and RF models using only PRS from ADHD and genetically correlated phenotypes. Conclusions: Summing risk at the gene set level and incorporating genetic risk from disorders with high genetic correlations with ADHD improved the accuracy of predicting ADHD. Learning curves suggest that additional improvements would be expected with larger study sizes. Our study suggests that better accounting of genetic risk and the genetic context of allelic differences results in more predictive models.

Polygenic risk prediction based on singular value decomposition with applications to alcohol use disorder

Background/aim The polygenic risk score (PRS) shows promise as a potentially effective approach to summarize genetic risk for complex diseases such as alcohol use disorder that is influenced by a combination of multiple variants, each of which has a very small effect. Yet, conventional PRS methods tend to over-adjust confounding factors in the discovery sample and thus have low power to predict the phenotype in the target sample. This study aims to address this important methodological issue. Methods This study proposed a new method to construct PRS by (1) approximating the polygenic model using a few principal components selected based on eigen-correlation in the discovery data; and (2) conducting principal component projection on the target data. Secondary data analysis was conducted on two large scale databases: the Study of Addiction: Genetics and Environment (SAGE; discovery data) and the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health; target data) to compare performance of the conventional and proposed methods. Result and conclusion The results show that the proposed method has higher prediction power and can handle participants from different ancestry backgrounds. We also provide practical recommendations for setting the linkage disequilibrium (LD) and p value thresholds.