Security Dilemma, Minority Complex, Greed, and Political Economy

This chapter explores the nature of Myanmar’s ‘Rohingya’ conflict against concepts of a demographic security dilemma, an ethnic security dilemma, a dual minority complex, and then the question of the impact of resources through two lenses, the ‘greed thesis’ and the political economy of conflict. It examines Rohingya population growth data, and the tripartite nature of the ethnic security dilemma, which suggests that times of political transition can facilitate heightened fears between rival ethnic or cultural groups and make them more vulnerable to extremist narratives and recourse to violence. It explores the deep sense of existential threat experienced by all parties, and how, from a regional and social-psychological perspective, a majority group within a country or region can feel as if they are a threatened minority competing for territorial and cultural survival. The chapter then moves into a discussion about the role of the State in the conflict, often overlooked or downplayed yet vitally important. It then considers the economic aspects of the conflict, analyzing these from ‘greed thesis’ and political economy perspectives, highlighting the interplay between the pre-existing conflict and the post-transition economic dynamics in the region.

The Rohingya ‘Origin’ Narrative

Chapters Three and Four articulate the competing historical narratives and representations of memory sustaining Myanmar’s ‘Rohingya’ conflict. This chapter examines what the authors designate the Rohingya ‘Origin’ narrative, and interrogates it against the available historical record; the next chapter considers the Rakhine and Burman perspectives. Drawing on the concept of intractable conflict, this chapter commences with an assessment of ‘Rohingya’ written historical sources and their sociopolitical context, then presents an overview and critique of these historical accounts. The chapter summarizes the key narrative of Rohingya origins, examining their representation of various waves of Muslim migration in the distant past, seeking to establish the Rohingya as a national race with deep historical roots in Arakan—and a people integral to Arakan’s political and socioeconomic life until its 1784 conquest by the Burmans. The chapter then offers an analysis of the pre-colonial Muslim population, and assesses their perspectives about the origins of the contemporary conflict. The chapter thus documents and analyses Rohingya claims that various waves of settlers have been assimilated, over centuries, into what is now a single ethic identity with a strong historical connection to the land, and a distinct language, culture and history which should now be considered indigenous to the region.

Complexities, Misconceptions, and Context

This chapter introduces the complexity of Myanmar’s ‘Rohingya’ conflict, and address a series of misconceptions widely held about it in the international community. It discusses the scale of recent violence, extent of displacement and degree of international condemnation, including discussion of Aung San Suu Kyi’s failure to adequately address the conflict. It also expresses serious concern about international advocacy campaigns, arguing many undermine any chance of cooperation by the very actors who are most required to implement any solution. The chapter then deals with three misconceptions about the conflict in some detail, arguing that the conflict is not recent, not merely oppression of a despised ethnoreligious minority, and not about denial of citizenship and statelessness per se. Instead, it notes profound social cleavages dating back more than a century, with multiple bouts of devastating violence. It identifies the conflict as tripartite, between the Burman-led state, local ethnic Rakhine and the ‘Rohingya’. And it argues that citizenship and statelessness is a by-product of a deeper power struggle over Myanmar polity and political power. The chapter concludes with an introduction to the geographical, historical, economic and socio-political context.

The International Community

This chapter concludes the book by offering a discussion of the role the international community has played, and could play, in both the conflict and conflict resolution. It summarizes the most important findings from the analysis throughout the book, and explores them in the context of the recommendations made by the Kofi Annan-led Advisory Commission on Rakhine State. These recommendation are widely recognized as the best proposals to date towards resolution of the underlying issues and long-term drivers of the conflict, although they were handed down just before the latest violence so do not deal with the latest injustices and human flight. This chapter explore the Commission’s recommendations, how these would affect underlying conflict drivers and grievances, and any further factors or actions required for any peaceful resolution. It discusses the need for a complete reframing of the issues away from race and indigeneity, pointing to the pathway for this, and highlighting the opportunity it poses for the wider Myanmar peace process. The chapter concludes with a grave warning of the moral hazard posed by international community action or advocacy, signaling the need for far more informed and strategic international responses.

Identity and Territory Grievances in Rakhine State

This chapter explores the nature of Myanmar’s ‘Rohingya’ conflict against the two most common non-material ‘grievance’ explanations in the literature, with the aim to highlight how their interplay shapes and reshapes the trajectories of the conflict: grievance based around identity (or ethnicity) and territory. The chapter highlights how the importance of issues of identity driving this conflict helps explain the resistance to the name ‘Rohingya’ within Myanmar, and discusses the reification of ethnic political identities in Myanmar. It argues that the politicization of ethnicity has led to a politics of ethnicity in Myanmar, and now a politics of indigeneity (taing-yin-tha) as a means of projecting control, through domination over the ‘national race’ minorities by instrumentalizing exclusion of other races, like the Rohingya. The chapter then discusses the framing of violence, and the danger of collectivization in conflicts labelled as ‘ethnic, discussing their complexity, fluidity and propensity to reframe micro-level crime or violence as ‘ethnic’. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the importance of territory to this conflict, in the light of the emphasis on territorial control as a marker of legitimacy in international politics.

Rakhine–Burman Narratives

Chapters Three and Four articulate the competing historical narratives and representations of memory sustaining Myanmar’s ‘Rohingya’ conflict. The last chapter examined the Rohingya ‘Origin’ historical narrative; this chapter considers the Rakhine and Burman perspectives, and interrogates them against the available historical record. This chapter documents and analyses three Rakhine—Burman perspectives, which the authors designate: a) the Rakhine ‘Independence’ narrative, which justifies demands for their autonomy from Burman domination; b) the Burman ‘Unity’ narrative, which claims a shared ancestry and historical unity between all of Myanmar’s national races (excluding Rohingya) as the basis for expectations that minorities will unite with them, to form a political community at the heart of the Union of Myanmar; and c) the Rakhine-Burman ‘Infiltration’ narrative, which claims an influx of Bengali Muslims during the colonial and post-Independence period poses an existential threat to the ethnic Rakhine, to Buddhism and to the Myanmar nation. Discussion of each of these narratives includes an assessment of written historical sources and their sociopolitical context, and an overview and critique of these narratives in the light of known history and Bar-Tal’s (2013) ideas about intractable conflict. The chapter concludes with a demographic analysis highlighting the growth of the Muslim population in Rakhine during the colonial period.

Recent Violence and Significance

This chapter illustrates the tripartite nature of this conflict, by exploring the interrelated outbreaks of serious violence in Rakhine State, Myanmar over the past five years. These are the 2012 intercommunal violence between ethnic Rakhine and ‘Rohingya’, the 2015-16 Arakan Army armed insurgency between Rakhine and the Burman-led state, and the 2016-17 insurgency Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army and its backlash, which was primarily between the Burman-led military (Tatmadaw) and the ‘Rohingya’. Documenting each of these clashes and power struggles in specific detail, it highlights the multi-polar nature of this conflict and illustrates some of the key fears, grievances and deep social fault lines making any resolution complex. The chapter concludes by discussing the significance of this conflict on Myanmar’s domestic politics, economic and political transition, and international support.