Summer atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Arctic Ocean and their influences on September sea ice extent: A cautionary tale

Abstract Contemporary climate science seeks to understand the rate and magnitude of a warming global climate and how it impacts regional variability and teleconnections. One of the key drivers of regional climate is the observed reduction in end of summer sea-ice extent over the Arctic. Here the authors show that interannual variations between the September Arctic sea-ice concentration, especially in the East Siberian Sea, and the maximum Okhotsk sea-ice extent in the following winter are positively correlated, which is not explained by the recent warming trend only. An increase of sea ice both in the East Siberian Sea and the Okhotsk Sea and corresponding atmospheric patterns, showing a seesaw between positive anomalies of sea level pressures over the Arctic Ocean and negative anomalies over the midlatitudes, are related to cold anomalies over the high-latitude Eurasian continent. The patterns of atmospheric circulation and air temperatures are similar to those of the annually integrated Arctic Oscillation (AO). The negative annual AO forms colder anomalies in autumn sea surface temperatures both over the East Siberian Sea and the Okhotsk Sea, which causes heavy sea-ice conditions in both seas through season-to-season persistence.

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Arctic Sea Ice Retreat in 2007 Follows Thinning Trend

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2008jcli2521.1 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 22 (1) ◽

pp. 165-176 ◽

Cited By ~ 143

Author(s):

R. W. Lindsay ◽

J. Zhang ◽

A. Schweiger ◽

M. Steele ◽

H. Stern

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Ocean ◽

Ocean Model ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Ice Thickness ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Pacific Side ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

The Arctic Ocean

Abstract The minimum of Arctic sea ice extent in the summer of 2007 was unprecedented in the historical record. A coupled ice–ocean model is used to determine the state of the ice and ocean over the past 29 yr to investigate the causes of this ice extent minimum within a historical perspective. It is found that even though the 2007 ice extent was strongly anomalous, the loss in total ice mass was not. Rather, the 2007 ice mass loss is largely consistent with a steady decrease in ice thickness that began in 1987. Since then, the simulated mean September ice thickness within the Arctic Ocean has declined from 3.7 to 2.6 m at a rate of −0.57 m decade−1. Both the area coverage of thin ice at the beginning of the melt season and the total volume of ice lost in the summer have been steadily increasing. The combined impact of these two trends caused a large reduction in the September mean ice concentration in the Arctic Ocean. This created conditions during the summer of 2007 that allowed persistent winds to push the remaining ice from the Pacific side to the Atlantic side of the basin and more than usual into the Greenland Sea. This exposed large areas of open water, resulting in the record ice extent anomaly.

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Moisture transport from the Arctic: a characterization from a Lagrangian perspective

Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica ◽

10.18172/cig.3477 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 44 (2) ◽

pp. 659 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

M. Vázquez ◽

R. Nieto ◽

A. Drumond ◽

L. Gimeno

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Ocean ◽

Moisture Transport ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Moisture Loss ◽

Lagrangian Model ◽

The Arctic ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

The Arctic Ocean ◽

Moisture Supply

The Arctic Ocean has suffered extreme reductions in sea ice in recent decades, and these observed changes suggest implications in terms of moisture transport. The Arctic region is a net sink of moisture in terms of the total hydrological cycle, however, its role as a moisture source for specific regions has not been extensively studied. Our results show that 80% of the moisture supply from the Arctic contributes to precipitation over itself, representing about 8% of the global moisture supply to the Arctic, the remaining 20% is distributed in the surrounding. A reduction in the sea ice extent could make the Arctic Ocean a slightly higher source of moisture to itself or to the surrounding areas. The analysis of the areas affected by Arctic moisture transport is important for establishing those areas vulnerable to change in a framework of a growing sea ice decline. To this end, the Lagrangian model FLEXPART was used in this work to establish the main sinks for the Arctic Ocean, focusing on the moisture transport from this region. The results suggest that most of the moisture loss occurs locally over the Arctic Ocean itself, especially in summer. Some moisture contribution from the Arctic Ocean to continental areas in North America and Eurasia is also noted in autumn and winter especially from Central Arctic, the East Siberian Sea, the Laptev, Kara, Barents, East Greenland and Bering Seas, and the Sea of Okhotsk.

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Mechanisms influencing seasonal-to-interannual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC

10.5194/tc-2017-122 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Jun Ono ◽

Hiroaki Tatebe ◽

Yoshiki Komuro ◽

Masato I. Nodzu ◽

Masayoshi Ishii

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Ocean ◽

Barents Sea ◽

Heat Content ◽

The Arctic ◽

Subsurface Water ◽

Lead Times ◽

Sea Ice Concentration ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

The Arctic Ocean

Abstract. To assess the skill of predictions of the seasonal-to-interannual detrended sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean (SIEAO) and to clarify the underlying physical processes, we conducted ensemble hindcasts, started on January 1st, April 1st, July 1st, and October 1st for each year from 1980 to 2011, for lead times of up three years, using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) version 5 initialized with the observed atmosphere and ocean anomalies and sea ice concentration. Significant skill is found for the winter months: the December SIEAO can be predicted up to 1 year ahead. This skill is attributed to the subsurface ocean heat content originating in the North Atlantic. The subsurface water flows into the Barents Sea from spring to fall and emerges at the surface in winter by vertical mixing, and eventually affects the sea ice variability there. Meanwhile, the September SIEAO predictions are skillful for lead times of up to 3 months, due to the persistence of sea ice in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian Seas initialized in July, as suggested by previous studies.

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Introduction

The Arctic ◽

10.1093/wentk/9780190649814.003.0050 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Klaus Dodds ◽

Mark Nuttall

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Ocean ◽

The State ◽

The Arctic ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Resource Potential ◽

The Arctic Ocean ◽

Thawing Permafrost

Every week, stories about the Arctic, usually addressing the state of sea ice extent and thickness, diminishing glaciers, rapidly thawing permafrost, acidification of the Arctic Ocean, the resource potential of the region, the opening of new shipping routes, and possible geopolitical tensions, appear in the...

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Diminishing Sea-Ice Extent and Thickness in the Arctic Ocean

Environmental Security in the Arctic Ocean - NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security ◽

10.1007/978-94-007-4713-5_4 ◽

2012 ◽

pp. 15-30 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Peter Wadhams

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Ocean ◽

The Arctic ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

The Arctic Ocean

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The effect of Arctic sea-ice extent on the absorbed (net) solar flux at the surface, based on ISCCP-D2 cloud data for 1983–2007

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-10-777-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 777-787 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

C. Matsoukas ◽

N. Hatzianastassiou ◽

A. Fotiadi ◽

K. G. Pavlakis ◽

I. Vardavas

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Ocean ◽

Cloud Amount ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

Solar Flux ◽

The Arctic ◽

Transfer Model ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

The Arctic Ocean

Abstract. We estimate the effect of the Arctic sea ice on the absorbed (net) solar flux using a radiative transfer model. Ice and cloud input data to the model come from satellite observations, processed by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and span the period July 1983–June 2007. The sea-ice effect on the solar radiation fluctuates seasonally with the solar flux and decreases interannually in synchronisation with the decreasing sea-ice extent. A disappearance of the Arctic ice cap during the sunlit period of the year would radically reduce the local albedo and cause an annually averaged 19.7 W m−2 increase in absorbed solar flux at the Arctic Ocean surface, or equivalently an annually averaged 0.55 W m−2 increase on the planetary scale. In the clear-sky scenario these numbers increase to 34.9 and 0.97 W m−2, respectively. A meltdown only in September, with all other months unaffected, increases the Arctic annually averaged solar absorption by 0.32 W m−2. We examined the net solar flux trends for the Arctic Ocean and found that the areas absorbing the solar flux more rapidly are the North Chukchi and Kara Seas, Baffin and Hudson Bays, and Davis Strait. The sensitivity of the Arctic absorbed solar flux on sea-ice extent and cloud amount was assessed. Although sea ice and cloud affect jointly the solar flux, we found little evidence of strong non-linearities.

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The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016: a year of record-low highs and higher-than-expected lows

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-12-433-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 433-452 ◽

Cited By ~ 30

Author(s):

Alek A. Petty ◽

Julienne C. Stroeve ◽

Paul R. Holland ◽

Linette N. Boisvert ◽

Angela C. Bliss ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Ocean ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Ice Cover ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Atlantic Sector ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

The Arctic Ocean

Abstract. The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016 was highly noteworthy, as it featured record low monthly sea ice extents at the start of the year but a summer (September) extent that was higher than expected by most seasonal forecasts. Here we explore the 2016 Arctic sea ice state in terms of its monthly sea ice cover, placing this in the context of the sea ice conditions observed since 2000. We demonstrate the sensitivity of monthly Arctic sea ice extent and area estimates, in terms of their magnitude and annual rankings, to the ice concentration input data (using two widely used datasets) and to the averaging methodology used to convert concentration to extent (daily or monthly extent calculations). We use estimates of sea ice area over sea ice extent to analyse the relative “compactness” of the Arctic sea ice cover, highlighting anomalously low compactness in the summer of 2016 which contributed to the higher-than-expected September ice extent. Two cyclones that entered the Arctic Ocean during August appear to have driven this low-concentration/compactness ice cover but were not sufficient to cause more widespread melt-out and a new record-low September ice extent. We use concentration budgets to explore the regions and processes (thermodynamics/dynamics) contributing to the monthly 2016 extent/area estimates highlighting, amongst other things, rapid ice intensification across the central eastern Arctic through September. Two different products show significant early melt onset across the Arctic Ocean in 2016, including record-early melt onset in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Our results also show record-late 2016 freeze-up in the central Arctic, North Atlantic and the Alaskan Arctic sector in particular, associated with strong sea surface temperature anomalies that appeared shortly after the 2016 minimum (October onwards). We explore the implications of this low summer ice compactness for seasonal forecasting, suggesting that sea ice area could be a more reliable metric to forecast in this more seasonal, “New Arctic”, sea ice regime.

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Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-12-675-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 675-683 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Jun Ono ◽

Hiroaki Tatebe ◽

Yoshiki Komuro ◽

Masato I. Nodzu ◽

Masayoshi Ishii

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Ocean ◽

Barents Sea ◽

Heat Content ◽

The Arctic ◽

Subsurface Water ◽

Lead Times ◽

Sea Ice Concentration ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

The Arctic Ocean

Abstract. To assess the skill of seasonal to inter-annual predictions of the detrended sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean (SIEAO) and to clarify the underlying physical processes, we conducted ensemble hindcasts, started on 1 January, 1 April, 1 July and 1 October for each year from 1980 to 2011, for lead times up to three years, using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) version 5 initialised with the observed atmosphere and ocean anomalies and sea ice concentration. Significant skill is found for the winter months: the December SIEAO can be predicted up to 11 months ahead (anomaly correlation coefficient is 0.42). This skill might be attributed to the subsurface ocean heat content originating in the North Atlantic. A plausible mechanism is as follows: the subsurface water flows into the Barents Sea from spring to fall and emerges at the surface in winter by vertical mixing, and eventually affects the sea ice variability there. Meanwhile, the September SIEAO predictions are skillful for lead times of up to two months, due to the persistence of sea ice in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian seas initialised in July, as suggested by previous studies.

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