Glacier Runoff Variation Since 1981 in the Upper Naryn River Catchments, Central Tien Shan

Water resources in Central Asia strongly depend on glaciers, which in turn adjust their size in response to climate variations. We investigate glacier runoff in the period 1981–2019 in the upper Naryn basin, Kyrgyzstan. The basins contain more than 1,000 glaciers, which cover a total area of 776 km2. We model the mass balance and runoff contribution of all glaciers with a simplified energy balance melt model and distributed accumulation model driven by ERA5 LAND re-analysis data for the time period of 1981–2019. The results are evaluated against discharge records, satellite-derived snow cover, stake readings from individual glaciers, and geodetic mass balances. Modelled glacier volume decreased by approximately 6.7 km3 or 14%, and the majority of the mass loss took place from 1996 until 2019. The decreasing trend is the result of increasingly negative summer mass balances whereas winter mass balances show no substantial trend. Analysis of the discharge data suggests an increasing runoff for the past two decades, which is, however only partly reflected in an increase of glacier melt. Moreover, the strongest increase in discharge is observed in winter, suggesting either a prolonged melting period and/or increased groundwater discharge. The average runoff from the glacierized areas in summer months (June to August) constitutes approximately 23% of the total contributions to the basin’s runoff. The results highlight the strong regional variability in glacier-climate interactions in Central Asia.

Antifungal Resistance in Clinical Isolates of Candida glabrata in Ibero-America

In different regions worldwide, there exists an intra-and inter-regional variability in the rates of resistance to antifungal agents in Candida glabrata, highlighting the importance of understanding the epidemiology and antifungal susceptibility profiles of C. glabrata in each region. However, in some regions, such as Ibero-America, limited data are available in this context. Therefore, in the present study, a systematic review was conducted to determine the antifungal resistance in C. glabrata in Ibero-America over the last five years. A literature search for articles published between January 2015 and December 2020 was conducted without language restrictions, using the PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and LILACS databases. The search terms that were used were “Candida glabrata” AND “antifungal resistance” AND “Country”, and 22 publications were retrieved from different countries. The use of azoles (fluconazole, itraconazole, voriconazole, posaconazole, isavuconazole, ketoconazole, and miconazole) varied between 4.0% and 100%, and that of echinocandins (micafungin, caspofungin, and anidulafungin) between 1.1% and 10.0%. The limited information on this subject in the region of Ibero-America emphasizes the need to identify the pathogens at the species level and perform antifungal susceptibility tests that may lead to the appropriate use of these drugs and the optimal doses in order to avoid the development of antifungal resistance or multi-resistance.

Identifying regional variation in place visit behavior during a global pandemic

The emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in 2019 lead to a global pandemic that altered the activity behavior of most people on our planet. While government regulations and public concern modified visitation patterns to places of interest, little research has examined the nuanced changes in the length of time someone spends at a place, nor the regional variability of these changes. In this work, we examine place visit duration in four major U.S. cities, identify which place types saw the largest and smallest changes, and quantify variation between cities. Furthermore, we identify socio-economic and demographic factors that contribute to changes in visit duration and demonstrate the varying influence of these factors by region. The results of our analysis indicate that the pandemic's impact on visiting behavior varies between cities, though there are commonalities found in certain types of places. Our findings suggest that places of interest within lower income communities experienced less change in visit duration than others. An increase in the percentage of younger, Black or Hispanic populations within a community also resulted in a smaller decrease in visit duration than in other communities. These findings offer insight into the factors that contribute to changes in visiting behavior and the resilience of communities to a global pandemic.

SARAH-3 – a new satellite-based Climate Data Record of Surface Solar Radiation parameters

<p class="western"><span lang="en-US">The EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) generates and distributes high quality long-term climate data records (CDR) of energy and water cycle parameters, which are freely available.</span></p> <p class="western"><span lang="en-US">In 2022, a new version of the “Surface Solar Radiation data set – Heliosat” will be released: SARAH-3. As the previous editions, the SARAH-3 climate data record is based on satellite observations from the first and second METEOSAT generations and provides various surface radiation parameters, including global radiation, direct radiation, sunshine duration, photosynthetic active radiation and others. SARAH-3 covers the time period 1983 to 2020 and offers 30-minute instantaneous data as well as daily and monthly means on a regular 0.05° x 0.05° lon/lat grid.</span></p> <p class="western" align="left"><span lang="en-US">In this presentation, an overview of the SARAH climate data record and their applications will be given. A focus will be on the SARAH-3 developments and validation with surface reference observations. Further, SARAH-3 will be used for a first analysis of the climate variability and potential trends of global radiation in Europe during the last decades. </span><span lang="en-US">The data record reveals that there is an increasing trend of surface solar radiation in Europe during the last decades, which is superimposed by decadal and regional variability.</span></p>

Large, near-term increases in climate-induced tree growth may help offset impacts of increasing disturbance across Canadian boreal forest

Large projected increases in forest disturbance pose a major threat to future wood fibre supply and carbon sequestration in the cold-limited, Canadian boreal forest ecosystem 1–4. Given the large sensitivity of tree growth to temperature, warming-induced increases in forest productivity have the potential to reduce these threats, but research efforts to date have yielded contradictory results attributed to limited data availability, methodological biases, and regional variability in forest dynamics 5–8. Here we apply a novel machine-learning algorithm to an unprecedented network of over 1 million tree growth records from 18,715 permanent sample plots distributed across both Canada and the US, spanning a 16.5°C climatic gradient, and project the near-term (2050s time period) growth of the six most abundant tree species in the Canadian boreal forest. Our results reveal a large, positive effect of increasing thermal energy on tree growth for most of the target species, leading to 40-52% projected gains in growth with climate change under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The magnitude of these gains, which peak in the colder and wetter regions of the boreal forest, suggests warming-induced growth increases should no longer be considered marginal, but may in fact significantly offset some of the negative impacts of projected increases in drought and wildfire on wood supply and carbon sequestration and have major implications on ecological forecasts and the global economy.

Unpacking the WEF Nexus Index: A Regional and Sub-Regional Analysis of Northern Canada

The water–energy–food (WEF) nexus has emerged as a leading tool for assessing integrated resource management strategies and for monitoring progress towards the WEF-related Sustainable Development Goals. A notable outcome of WEF nexus research has been the calculation of the global WEF Nexus Index, which provides a quantitative ranking of country-level WEF security for 170 nations. As valuable as this ranking is, the aggregation of country-level WEF data obscures regional differences, particularly in remote regions that are sparsely populated and differ in geography, economy, and climate. This has proven to be the case for northern Canada, which despite representing 40% of Canada’s total land area, accounts for less than 1% of the Canadian population, most of whom are Indigenous. Whereas Canada ranks 5th globally in their WEF security, northern Canada, if treated independently, would rank 67th on the global WEF Nexus Index rankings. Evaluating each WEF sector independently, northern Canada would rank 22nd in water security, 90th in energy security, and 113th in food security. Our results further reveal that considerable inter-regional variability exists between northern territories and provinces, where Nunavik would rank 54th, Northwest Territories 67th, Yukon 69th, Labrador 80th, and Nunavut 107th on the global index. By highlighting these differences, we hope that this research can aid decision-makers in developing informed, regionally specific, and integrative resource policy responses that remedy rather than amplify existing WEF-related inequalities.

Divergent trajectories of ocean warming and acidification

The ocean provides a major sink for anthropogenic heat and carbon. This sink results in ocean changes through the dual stressors of warming and acidification which can negatively impact the health of the marine ecosystem. Projecting the ocean’s future uptake is essential to understand and adapt to further climate change and its impact on the ocean. Historical ocean uptake of heat and CO2 are tightly correlated, but here we show the trajectories diverge over the 21st century. This divergence occurs regionally, increasing over time, resulting from the unique combination of physical and chemical drivers. We explored this relationship using a high-resolution ocean model and a ‘business as usual’ CO2 emission pathway, and demonstrate that the regional variability in the carbon-to-heat uptake ratios is more pronounced than for the subsequent carbon-to-heat storage (change in inventory) ratios, with a range of a factor of 30 (6) in heat-to-carbon uptake (storage) ratios among the defined regions. The regional differences in heat and carbon trajectories result in coherent regional patterns for sea surface warming and acidification by the end of this century. Relative to the mean global change (MGC) at the sea surface of 2.55°C warming and a decrease of 0.32 in pH, the North Pacific will exceed the MGC for both warming and acidification, the Southern Ocean for acidification only, and the tropics and midlatitude northern hemisphere will exceed MGC only for warming. Regionally, mapping the ocean warming and acidification informs where the marine environment will experience larger changes in one or both. Globally, the projected ocean uptake of anthropogenic heat and carbon informs the degree to which the ocean can continue to serve as a sink for both into the future.