Analysis and prediction of a mesoscale convective system over East China with an ensemble square root filter radar data assimilation approach

Radar observation data with high temporal and spatial resolution are used in the data assimilation experiment to improve precipitation forecast of a numerical model. The numerical model considered in this study is Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with double-moment 6-class microphysics scheme (WDM6). We calculated radar equivalent reflectivity factor using higher resolution WRF and compared with radar observations in South Korea. To compare the precipitation forecast characteristics of three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation of radar data, four experiments are performed based on different precipitation types. Comparisons of the 24-h accumulated rainfall with Automatic Weather Station (AWS) data, Contoured Frequency by Altitude Diagram (CFAD), Time Height Cross Sections (THCS), and vertical hydrometeor profiles are used to evaluate and compare the accuracy. The model simulations are performed with and with-out 3D-VAR radar reflectivity, radial velocity and AWS assimilation for two mesoscale convective cases and two synoptic scale cases. The radar data assimilation experiment improved the location of precipitation area and rainfall intensity compared to the control run. Especially, for the two convective cases, simulating mesoscale convective system was greatly improved.

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Evaluation of Different Storm Parameters as the Proxies for Gridded Total Lightning Flash Rates: A Convection-Allowing Model Study

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12010095 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 95

Author(s):

Xinyao Qian ◽

Haoliang Wang

Keyword(s):

Data Assimilation ◽

Mesoscale Convective System ◽

Radar Data ◽

Skill Score ◽

Convective System ◽

Test Case ◽

Lightning Flash ◽

Simulation Accuracy ◽

Mesoscale Convective ◽

Total Lightning

Lightning simulation is important for a variety of applications, including lightning forecast, atmospheric chemical simulation, and lightning data assimilation. In this study, the potential of five storm parameters (graupel volume, precipitation ice mass, radar echo volume, maximum updraft, and updraft volume) to be used as the proxy for the diagnosis of gridded total lightning flash rates has been investigated in a convection-allowing model. A mesoscale convective system occurred in the Guangdong province of China was selected as the test case. Radar data assimilation was used to improve the simulation accuracy of the convective clouds, hence providing strong instantaneous correlations between observed and simulated storm signatures. The areal coverage and magnitude of the simulated lightning flash rates were evaluated by comparing to those of the total lightning observations. Subjective and the Fractions Skill Score (FSS) evaluations suggest that all the five proxies tested in this study are useful to indicate general tendencies for the occurrence, region, and time of lightning at convection-allowing scale (FSS statistics for the threshold of 1 flash per 9 km2 per hour were around 0.7 for each scheme). The FSS values were decreasing as the lightning flash rate thresholds used for FSS computation increased for all the lightning diagnostic schemes with different proxies. For thresholds from 1 to 3 and 16 to 20 flashes per 9 km2 per hour, the graupel contents related schemes achieved higher FSS values compared to the other three schemes. For thresholds from 5 to 15 flashes per 9 km2 per hour, the updraft volume related scheme yielded the largest FSS. When the thresholds of lightning flash rates were greater than 13 flashes per 9 km2 per hour, the FSS values were below 0.5 for all the lightning diagnostic schemes with different proxies.

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Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of a Tornadic Mesoscale Convective System from Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses Using WSR-88D and CASA Radar Data

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/mwr-d-11-00117.1 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 140 (7) ◽

pp. 2126-2146 ◽

Cited By ~ 43

Author(s):

Nathan Snook ◽

Ming Xue ◽

Youngsun Jung

Keyword(s):

Kalman Filter ◽

Data Assimilation ◽

Ensemble Kalman Filter ◽

Mesoscale Convective System ◽

Radar Data ◽

Radar Reflectivity ◽

Convective System ◽

Ensemble Forecasts ◽

Probabilistic Forecasts ◽

Mesoscale Convective

Abstract This study examines the ability of a storm-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to predict precipitation and mesovortices within a tornadic mesoscale convective system that occurred over Oklahoma on 8–9 May 2007, when the model is initialized from ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) analyses including data from four Engineering Research Center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) X-band and five Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) S-band radars. Ensemble forecasts are performed and probabilistic forecast products generated, focusing on prediction of radar reflectivity (a proxy of quantitative precipitation) and mesovortices (an indication of tornado potential). Assimilating data from both the CASA and WSR-88D radars for the ensemble and using a mixed-microphysics ensemble during data assimilation produces the best probabilistic mesovortex forecast. The use of multiple microphysics schemes within the ensemble aims to address at least partially the model physics uncertainty and effectively plays a role of flow-dependent inflation (in precipitation regions) during EnKF data assimilation. The ensemble predicts with high probability (approximately 0.65) the near-surface mesovortex associated with the first of three reported tornadoes. Though a bias toward stronger precipitation is noted in the ensemble forecasts, all experiments produce skillful probabilistic forecasts of radar reflectivity on a 0–3-h time scale as evaluated by multiple probabilistic verification metrics. These results suggest that both the inclusion of CASA radar data and use of a mixed-microphysics ensemble during EnKF data assimilation positively impact the skill of 2–3-h ensemble forecasts of mesovortices, despite having little impact on the quality of precipitation forecasts (analyzed in terms of predicted radar reflectivity), and are important steps toward an operational EnKF-based ensemble analysis and probabilistic forecast system to support convective-scale warn-on-forecast operations.

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Ensemble Probabilistic Prediction of a Mesoscale Convective System and Associated Polarimetric Radar Variables Using Single-Moment and Double-Moment Microphysics Schemes and EnKF Radar Data Assimilation

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/mwr-d-16-0162.1 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 145 (6) ◽

pp. 2257-2279 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Bryan J. Putnam ◽

Ming Xue ◽

Youngsun Jung ◽

Nathan A. Snook ◽

Guifu Zhang

Keyword(s):

Mesoscale Convective System ◽

Radar Data ◽

Convective Precipitation ◽

Convective System ◽

Ensemble Forecasts ◽

Verification Methods ◽

Probabilistic Forecasts ◽

Mesoscale Convective ◽

Single Moment ◽

Double Moment

Abstract Ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts are performed for a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that occurred over Oklahoma on 8–9 May 2007, initialized from ensemble Kalman filter analyses using multinetwork radar data and different microphysics schemes. Two experiments are conducted, using either a single-moment or double-moment microphysics scheme during the 1-h-long assimilation period and in subsequent 3-h ensemble forecasts. Qualitative and quantitative verifications are performed on the ensemble forecasts, including probabilistic skill scores. The predicted dual-polarization (dual-pol) radar variables and their probabilistic forecasts are also evaluated against available dual-pol radar observations, and discussed in relation to predicted microphysical states and structures. Evaluation of predicted reflectivity (Z) fields shows that the double-moment ensemble predicts the precipitation coverage of the leading convective line and stratiform precipitation regions of the MCS with higher probabilities throughout the forecast period compared to the single-moment ensemble. In terms of the simulated differential reflectivity (ZDR) and specific differential phase (KDP) fields, the double-moment ensemble compares more realistically to the observations and better distinguishes the stratiform and convective precipitation regions. The ZDR from individual ensemble members indicates better raindrop size sorting along the leading convective line in the double-moment ensemble. Various commonly used ensemble forecast verification methods are examined for the prediction of dual-pol variables. The results demonstrate the challenges associated with verifying predicted dual-pol fields that can vary significantly in value over small distances. Several microphysics biases are noted with the help of simulated dual-pol variables, such as substantial overprediction of KDP values in the single-moment ensemble.

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The Analysis and Prediction of Microphysical States and Polarimetric Radar Variables in a Mesoscale Convective System Using Double-Moment Microphysics, Multinetwork Radar Data, and the Ensemble Kalman Filter

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/mwr-d-13-00042.1 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 142 (1) ◽

pp. 141-162 ◽

Cited By ~ 43

Author(s):

Bryan J. Putnam ◽

Ming Xue ◽

Youngsun Jung ◽

Nathan Snook ◽

Guifu Zhang

Keyword(s):

Kalman Filter ◽

Ensemble Kalman Filter ◽

Mesoscale Convective System ◽

Radar Data ◽

Cold Pool ◽

Convective System ◽

Polarimetric Radar ◽

Microphysics Scheme ◽

Mesoscale Convective ◽

Double Moment

Abstract Doppler radar data are assimilated with an ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) in combination with a double-moment (DM) microphysics scheme in order to improve the analysis and forecast of microphysical states and precipitation structures within a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that passed over western Oklahoma on 8–9 May 2007. Reflectivity and radial velocity data from five operational Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) S-band radars as well as four experimental Collaborative and Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) X-band radars are assimilated over a 1-h period using either single-moment (SM) or DM microphysics schemes within the forecast ensemble. Three-hour deterministic forecasts are initialized from the final ensemble mean analyses using a SM or DM scheme, respectively. Polarimetric radar variables are simulated from the analyses and compared with polarimetric WSR-88D observations for verification. EnKF assimilation of radar data using a multimoment microphysics scheme for an MCS case has not previously been documented in the literature. The use of DM microphysics during data assimilation improves simulated polarimetric variables through differentiation of particle size distributions (PSDs) within the stratiform and convective regions. The DM forecast initiated from the DM analysis shows significant qualitative improvement over the assimilation and forecast using SM microphysics in terms of the location and structure of the MCS precipitation. Quantitative precipitation forecasting skills are also improved in the DM forecast. Better handling of the PSDs by the DM scheme is believed to be responsible for the improved prediction of the surface cold pool, a stronger leading convective line, and improved areal extent of stratiform precipitation.

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Comparison of 3DVar and EnSRF Data Assimilation Using Radar Observations for the Analysis and Prediction of an MCS

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2018/8694295 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 2018 ◽

pp. 1-18 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Shibo Gao ◽

Jinzhong Min

Keyword(s):

Data Assimilation ◽

Three Dimensional ◽

Mesoscale Convective System ◽

Final Analysis ◽

Radar Data ◽

Radar Reflectivity ◽

Precipitation Forecast ◽

Convective System ◽

Wind Fields ◽

Radar Observations

Using radar observations, the performances of the ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) and an indirect three-dimensional variational (3DVar) data assimilation method were compared for a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that occurred in the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains, Colorado (USA). The results showed that the root mean square innovations (RMSIs) of EnSRF were lower than 3DVar for radar reflectivity and radial velocity and that the spread of EnSRF was generally consistent with its RMSIs. EnSRF substantially improved the analysis of the MCS compared with an experiment without radar data assimilation, and it produced a slight but noticeable improvement over 3DVar in terms of both coverage and intensity. Forecast results initiated from the final analysis revealed that EnSRF generally produced the best prediction of the MCS, with improved quantitative reflectivity and precipitation forecast skills. EnSRF also demonstrated better performance than 3DVar in the prediction of neighborhood probability for reflectivity at thresholds of 20 and 35 dBZ, which better matched the observed radar reflectivity in terms of both shape and extension. Additionally, the humidity, temperature, and wind fields were also improved by EnSRF; the largest error reduction was found in the water vapor field near the surface and at upper levels.

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Identifikasi Karakteristik Quasi-Linear Convective System Pada Maret Sampai Mei 2017 Di Wilayah Pangkalan Bun Berbasis Radar Cuaca

Prosiding SNFA (Seminar Nasional Fisika dan Aplikasinya) ◽

10.20961/prosidingsnfa.v4i0.35918 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 4 ◽

pp. 110

Author(s):

Meldisa Putri Maulidyah ◽

Rossian Nursiddiq Islamiardi ◽

Rezky Fajar Maulana ◽

Kristian Adi Putra Tamba ◽

Imma Redha Nugraheni ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Coastal Plain ◽

Descriptive Analysis ◽

Mesoscale Convective System ◽

Heavy Rain ◽

Radar Data ◽

Horizontal Wind ◽

Convective System ◽

Raw Data ◽

Mesoscale Convective ◽

Strong Winds

Abstract: Quasi Linear Convective System (QLCS) is one of the phenomena of meso-scale convective weather systems (MCS), which are linear in shape with an unspecified leftime and potentially bad weather in the form of heavy rain and strong winds. This research will identify, analyze, and characterize QLCS in the Pangkalan Bun region, Central Kalimantan, as a research location with a period of March to May 2017 using raw data radar data base of Pangkalanbun type C-Band single polarization type Selex SI Gematronik. Method of research was conducted in a descriptive analysis with a description of the QLCS temporally and spatially. The results showed the most duration was 30-60 minutes. The location of the QLCS formation is dominant in the coastal plain or lowland areas. The type of formation of QLCS is dominant broken line.Abstrak: Quasi Linear Convective System (QLCS) merupakan salah satu fenomena dari sistem cuaca konvektif skala meso atau Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) yang berbentuk linear dengan masa hidup tidak ditentukan dan berpotensi cuaca buruk berupa hujan lebat dan angin kencang. Pada penelitian ini akan mengidentifikasi, menganalisis, dan mengarakteristikan QLCS di wilayah cakupan radar Pangkalan Bun, Kalimantan Tengah sebagai lokasi penelitian dengan jangka waktu bulan Maret sampai Mei tahun 2017 menggunakan raw data radar cuaca Pangkalan Bun tipe C-Band jenis polarisasi tunggal Selex SI Gematronik. Metode yang dilakukan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis deskriptif produk Column Max (CMAX), Combined Moment (CM), Strom Structure Analysis (SSA), Severe Weather Indicator (SWI), dan Horizontal WInd (HWIND). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan durasi pembentukan QLCS terbanyak terjadi dalam rentang 30-60 menit dengan lokasi pembentukan QLCS dominan pada area coastal plain atau dataran rendah. Tipe pembentukan QLCS dominan broken line dan banyak terjadi di pagi hari.

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The Initiation and Organization of a Severe Hail‐Producing Mesoscale Convective System in East China: A Numerical Study

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres ◽

10.1029/2020jd032606 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 125 (17) ◽

Author(s):

Liping Luo ◽

Ming Xue ◽

Kefeng Zhu

Keyword(s):

Numerical Study ◽

Mesoscale Convective System ◽

East China ◽

Convective System ◽

Mesoscale Convective

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Evaluating Forecast Performance and Sensitivity to the GSI EnKF Data Assimilation Configuration for the 28 – 29 May 2017 Mesoscale Convective System Case

Weather and Forecasting ◽

10.1175/waf-d-20-0071.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Jonathan Labriola ◽

Youngsun Jung ◽

Chengsi Liu ◽

Ming Xue

Keyword(s):

Data Assimilation ◽

Forecast Error ◽

Mesoscale Convective System ◽

Radar Data ◽

Forecast Skill ◽

Convective System ◽

Observation Error ◽

Forecast Performance ◽

Radar Observations ◽

Data Thinning

AbstractIn an effort to improve radar data assimilation configurations for potential operational implementation, GSI EnKF data assimilation experiments based on the operational system employed by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) realtime Spring Forecast Experiments are performed. These experiments are followed by 6-hour forecasts for an MCS on 28 – 29 May 2017. Configurations examined include data thinning, covariance localization radii and inflation, observation error settings, and data assimilation frequency for radar observations.The results show experiments that assimilate radar observations more frequently (i.e., 5 – 10 minutes) are initially better at suppressing spurious convection. However, assimilating observations every 5 minutes causes spurious convection to become more widespread with time, and modestly degrades forecast skill through the remainder of the forecast window. Ensembles that assimilate more observations with less thinning of data or use a larger horizontal covariance localization radius for radar data predict fewer spurious storms and better predict the location of observed storms. Optimized data thinning and horizontal covariance localization radii have positive impacts on forecast skill during the first forecast hour that are quickly lost due to the growth of forecast error. Forecast skill is less sensitive to the ensemble spread inflation factors and observation errors tested during this study. These results provide guidance towards optimizing the configuration of the GSI EnKF system. Among DA the configurations tested, the one employed by the CAPS Spring Forecast Experiment produces the most skilled forecasts while remaining computationally efficient for realtime use.

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