Characterizing the dynamic movement of thunderstorms using VLF/LF total lightning data over the Pearl River Delta region

This paper reveals the characteristics of thunderstorm dynamic movement using total lightning data obtained from the VLF/LF measurement. Eight thunderstorms, which was evenly distributed in the morning, midday, afternoon and evening, are selected to compare the different kinematic features around the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in the south of China from 17 May to 23 May 2014. The connected-neighborhood labeling method is used to identify lightning clusters and obtain the centroids. Significant characterization parameters are put forward as metrics to reveal the kinematic features of thunderstorms, including the duration, valid area (VA), velocity, direction, and farthest distance in longitude and latitude during the life cycle of storm. A common trend is that the storms initiate in the west of the PRD region, moving to the east and disappearing after the thunderstorm travels around 106.5 km in longitude. There are two kinds of distribution to depict the property of valid area, which are one-peak distribution with the maximum in the mature stage and two-peak distribution with a relatively smaller peak in the early time of storm. The velocity does not show the same trend as the variation of VA which shows the steady increase or decrease during the lifetime of thunderstorm. The biggest VA and highest velocity are 891 km2 occurred on the evening of 17 May and 204.8 km h−1 occurred on the morning of 20 May. The 19 May evening storm was the weakest, with the maximum of VA and velocity being 253 km2 and 115.3 km h−1, respectively. The motion of storms shows a distinct pattern, as the spread of direction distributes tightly in the range of 0°–90° and 270°–360°. The movement characteristics of thunderstorm and the associated parameters may help to improve the nowcasting and forecasting system of thunderstorms in this region.

Clouds’ Microphysical Properties and Their Relationship with Lightning Activity in Northeast Brazil

The Northeast region of Brazil (NEB) has a high rate of deaths from lightning strikes (18% of the country’s total). The region has states, such as Piauí, with high mortality rates (1.8 deaths per million), much higher than the national rate (0.8) and the NEB rate (0.5). In this sense, the present work analyzes the microphysical characteristics of clouds with and without the occurrence of total lightning. For this purpose, data from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS), TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR), aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite from 1998 to 2013 were used. The TRMM data were analyzed to establish a relationship between the occurrence of lightning and the clouds’ microphysical characteristics, comparing them as a function of lightning occurrence classes, spatial location and atmospheric profiles. A higher lightning occurrence is associated with higher values of ice water path (>38.9 kg m−2), rain water path (>2 kg m−2), convective precipitation (>5 mm h−1) and surface precipitation (>7 mm h−1), in addition to slightly higher freezing level height values. Reflectivity observations (>36 dBZ) demonstrated typical convective profile curves, with higher values associated with classes with higher lightning densities (class with more than 6.8 flash km−2 year−1).

Revisiting Lightning Activity and Parameterization Using Geostationary Satellite Observations

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 16 (GOES-16) detects total lightning continuously, with a high spatial resolution and detection efficiency. Coincident data from the GLM and the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) are used to explore the correlation between the cloud top properties and flash activity across the continental United States (CONUS) sector from May to September 2020. A large number of collocated infrared (IR) brightness temperature (TBB), cloud top height (CTH) and lightning data provides robust statistics. Overall, the likelihood of lightning occurrence and high flash density is higher if the TBB is colder than 225 K. The higher CTH is observed to be correlated with a larger flash rate, a smaller flash size, stronger updraft, and larger optical energy. Furthermore, the cloud top updraft velocity (w) is estimated based on the decreasing rate of TBB, but it is smaller than the updraft velocity of the convective core. As a result, the relationship between CTH and lightning flash rate is investigated independently of w over the continental, oceanic and coastal regimes in the tropics and mid-latitudes. When the CTH is higher than 12 km, the flash rates of oceanic lightning are 38% smaller than those of both coastal and continental lightning. In addition, it should be noted that more studies are necessary to examine why the oceanic lightning with low clouds (CTH < 8 km) has higher flash rates than lightning over land and coast. Finally, the exponents of derived power relationship between CTH and lightning flash rate are smaller than four, which is underestimated due to the GLM detection efficiency and the difference between IR CTH and 20 dBZ CTH. The results from combining the ABI and GLM products suggest that merging multiple satellite datasets could benefit both lightning activity and parameterization studies, although the parallax corrections should be considered.

Assimilating FY-4A Lightning and Radar Data for Improving Short-Term Forecasts of a High-Impact Convective Event with a Dual-Resolution Hybrid 3DEnVAR Method

A dual-resolution, hybrid, three-dimensional ensemble-variational (3DEnVAR) data assimilation method combining static and ensemble background error covariances is used to assimilate radar data, and pseudo-water vapor observations to improve short-term severe weather forecasts with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. The higher-resolution deterministic forecast and the lower-resolution ensemble members have 3 and 9 km horizontal resolution, respectively. The water vapor pseudo-observations are derived from the combined use of total lightning data and cloud top height from the Fengyun-4A(FY-4A) geostationary satellite. First, a set of single-analysis experiments are conducted to provide a preliminary performance evaluation of the effectiveness of the hybrid method for assimilating multisource observations; second, a set of cycling analysis experiments are used to evaluate the forecast performance in convective-scale high-frequency analysis; finally, different hybrid coefficients are tested in both the single and cycling experiments. The single-analysis results show that the combined assimilation of radar data and water vapor pseudo-observations derived from the lightning data is able to generate reasonable vertical velocity, water vapor and hydrometeor adjustments, which help to trigger convection earlier in the forecast/analysis and reduce the spin-up time. The dual-resolution hybrid 3DEnVAR method is able to adjust the wind fields and hydrometeor variables with the assimilation of lightning data, which helps maintain the triggered convection longer and partially suppress spurious cells in the forecast compared with the three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) method. A cycling analysis that introduced a large number of observations with more frequent small adjustments is able to better resolve the observed convective events than a single-analysis approach. Different hybrid coefficients can affect the forecast results, either in the single deterministic or cycling analysis experiments. Overall, we found that a static coefficient of 0.4 and an ensemble coefficient of 0.6 yields the best forecast skill for this event.

Impact of Assimilating GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper Flash Extent Density Data on Severe Convection Forecast in a Warn-on-Forecast System

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R) Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) instrument detects total lightning rate at high temporal and spatial resolution over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions. The GLM observations provide detection and monitoring of deep electrified convection. This study explores the impact of assimilating the GLM derived flash extent density (FED) on the analyses and short-term forecasts of two severe weather events into an experimental Warn-on-Forecast system (WoFS) using the Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation technique. Sensitivity experiments are conducted using two tornadic severe storm events, one with a line of individual supercells and the other one with both isolated cells and a severe convective line. The control experiment (CTRL) assimilates conventional surface observations and geostationary satellite cloud water path into WoFS. Additional experiments also assimilate either GLM FED or radar data (RAD), or a combination of both (RAD+GLM). It is found that assimilating GLM data in the absence of radar data into the WoFS improves the short-term forecast skill over CTRL in one case, while in the other case degrades the forecast skill by generating weaker cold pools and overly suppressing convection, mainly owing to assimilating zero FED values in the trailing stratiform regions. Assimilating unexpectedly low FED values in some regions due to low GLM detection efficiency also accounts for the poorer forecasts. Although RAD provides superior forecasts over GLM, the combination RAD+GLM shows further gains in both cases. Additional observation operators should consider different storm types and GLM detection efficiency.

Fast and Fine Location of Total Lightning from Low Frequency Signals Based on Deep-Learning Encoding Features

Lightning location provides an important means for the study of lightning discharge process and thunderstorms activity. The fine positioning capability of total lightning based on low-frequency signals has been improved in many aspects, but most of them are based on post waveform processing, and the positioning speed is slow. In this study, artificial intelligence technology is introduced for the first time to lightning positioning, based on low-frequency electric-field detection array (LFEDA). A new method based on deep-learning encoding features matching is also proposed, which provides a means for fast and fine location of total lightning. Compared to other LFEDA positioning methods, the new method greatly improves the matching efficiency, up to more than 50%, thereby considerably improving the positioning speed. Moreover, the new algorithm has greater fine-positioning and anti-interference abilities, and maintains high-quality positioning under low signal-to-noise ratio conditions. The positioning efficiency for return strokes of triggered lightning was 99.17%, and the standard deviation of the positioning accuracy in the X and Y directions was approximately 70 m.

Effects of Day/Night Factor on the Detection Performance of FY4A Lightning Mapping Imager in Hainan, China

In this study, the effect of day/night factor on the detection performance of the FY4A lightning mapping imager (LMI) is evaluated using the Bayesian theorem, and by comparing it to the measurements made by a ground-based low-frequency magnetic field lightning location system. Both the datasets were collected in the summers of 2019–2020 in Hainan, China. The results show that for the observed summer thunderstorms in Hainan, the daytime detection efficiencies of LMI (DELMI) were 20.41~35.53% lower than the nighttime DELMI. Compared to other space-based lightning sensors (lightning imaging sensors/optical transient detectors (LIS/OTD) and geostationary lightning mapper (GLM)), the detection performance of LMI is more significantly influenced by the day/night factor. The DELMI rapidly dropped within about four hours after sunrise while it increased before sunset. For the storms that formed at night and lasted for an entire day, the DELMI remained relatively low during the daytime, even as the thunderstorms intensified. The poor detection performance of LMI during daytime is probably because of the sunlight reflection by clouds and atmosphere, which results in larger background radiative energy density (RED) than that at night. During night, LMI captured the lightning signals well with low RED (8.38~10.63 μJ sr−1 m−2 nm−1). However, during daytime, signals with RED less than 77.12 μJ sr−1 m−2 nm−1 were filtered, thus lightning groups could rarely be identified by LMI, except those with extremely high RED. Due to the limitations of the Bayesian theorem, the obtained DE in this study was “relative” DE rather than “absolute” DE. To obtain the absolute DE of LMI, the total lightning density is necessary but can hardly be measured. Nonetheless, the results shown here clearly indicate the strong impact of day/night factor on the detection performance of LMI, and can be used to improve the design and post-processing method of LMI.

3D Total Lightning Observation Network in Tokyo Metropolitan Area (Tokyo LMA)

The National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience deployed a lightning mapping array (LMA) in the Tokyo metropolitan area in March 2017. Called the “Tokyo LMA,” it obtains detailed three-dimensional observations of the total lightning activity (cloud-to-ground and intracloud flashes) in storms. The network initially consisted of 8 receiving stations, expanded to 12 stations in March 2018. Real-time total lightning images were first opened on the webpage in Japan. Real-time observations from the Tokyo LMA will be used in nowcasting lightning hazards and mitigating lightning disasters. Archived data will be used to develop lightning prediction techniques and a lightning climatology for the Tokyo metropolitan area.

Evaluating the Performance of Lightning Data Assimilation from BLNET Observations in a 4DVAR-Based Weather Nowcasting Model for a High-Impact Weather over Beijing

The Beijing Broadband Lightning Network (BLNET) was successfully set up in North China and had yielded a considerable detection capability of total lightning (intracloud and cloud to ground) over the regions with complex underlying (plains, mountains, and oceans). This study set up a basic framework for the operational application of assimilating total lightning activities from BLNET and assesses the potential benefits in cloud-scale, very short-term forecast (nowcasting) by modulating the vertical velocity using the 4DVar technique. Nowcast statistics aggregated over 11 cycles show that the nowcasting performances with the assimilation of BLNET lightning datasets outperform RAD and the assimilation of GLD360 (Global Lightning) datasets. The assimilation of BLNET data improves the model's dynamical states in the analysis by enhancing the convergence and updraft in and near the convective system. To better implement of assimilating real-time lightning data, this study also conducts sensitivity experiments to investigate the impact of the horizontal length scale of a distance-weighted interpolation, binning time intervals, and different vertical profile or distance weights prior to the DA. The results indicate that the best forecast performance for assimilating BLNET lightning datasets is obtained in a 4DVar cycle when the lightning accumulation interval is 3 min, the radius of horizontal interpolation is 5 × 5, and the statistically vertical velocity profile and the distance weights obtained from cumulus cloud.