scholarly journals Multivariate spatio-temporal modelling for assessing Antarctica's present-day contribution to sea-level rise

2015 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 159-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Zammit-Mangion ◽  
Jonathan Rougier ◽  
Nana Schön ◽  
Finn Lindgren ◽  
Jonathan Bamber
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Temporal Modelling ◽  
Spatio Temporal

scholarly journals Depositional setting and limiting factors of early Late Cretaceous glaucony formation: implications from Cenomanian glauconitic strata (Elbtal Group, Germany)

Facies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Wilmsen ◽  
Udita Bansal
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Late Cretaceous ◽  
Limiting Factors ◽  
High Accumulation ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Facies Types ◽  
Facies Succession ◽  
Early Late

AbstractCenomanian strata of the Elbtal Group (Saxony, eastern Germany) reflect a major global sea-level rise and contain, in certain intervals, a green authigenic clay mineral in abundance. Based on the integrated study of five new core sections, the environmental background and spatio-temporal patterns of these glauconitic strata are reconstructed and some general preconditions allegedly needed for glaucony formation are critically questioned. XRD analyses of green grains extracted from selected samples confirm their glauconitic mineralogy. Based on field observations as well as on the careful evaluation of litho- and microfacies, 12 glauconitc facies types (GFTs), broadly reflecting a proximal–distal gradient, have been identified, containing granular and matrix glaucony of exclusively intrasequential origin. When observed in stratigraphic succession, GFT-1 to GFT-12 commonly occur superimposed in transgressive cycles starting with the glauconitic basal conglomerates, followed up-section by glauconitic sandstones, sandy glauconitites, fine-grained, bioturbated, argillaceous and/or marly glauconitic sandstones; glauconitic argillaceous marls, glauconitic marlstones, and glauconitic calcareous nodules continue the retrogradational fining-upward trend. The vertical facies succession with upwards decreasing glaucony content demonstrates that the center of production and deposition of glaucony in the Cenomanian of Saxony was the nearshore zone. This time-transgressive glaucony depocenter tracks the regional onlap patterns of the Elbtal Group, shifting southeastwards during the Cenomanian 2nd-order sea-level rise. The substantial development of glaucony in the thick (60 m) uppermost Cenomanian Pennrich Formation, reflecting a tidal, shallow-marine, nearshore siliciclastic depositional system and temporally corresponding to only ~ 400 kyr, shows that glaucony formation occurred under wet, warm-temperate conditions, high accumulation rates and on rather short-term time scales. Our new integrated data thus indicate that environmental factors such as great water depth, cool temperatures, long time scales, and sediment starvation had no impact on early Late Cretaceous glaucony formation in Saxony, suggesting that the determining factors of ancient glaucony may be fundamentally different from recent conditions and revealing certain limitations of the uniformitarian approach.

Spatio-temporal decomposition of geophysical signals in North America

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aoibheann Brady ◽  
Jonathan Rougier ◽  
Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma ◽  
Yann Ziegler ◽  
Richard Westaway ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Isostatic Adjustment ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Vertical Land Motion ◽  
Early Results ◽  
Spatio Temporal

<p>Sea level rise is one of the most significant consequences of projected future changes in climate. One factor which influences sea level rise is vertical land motion (VLM) due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), which changes the elevation of the ocean floor. Typically, GIA forward models are used for this purpose, but these are known to vary with the assumptions made about ice loading history and Earth structure. In this study, we implement a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework to explore a data-driven VLM solution for North America, with the aim of separating out the overall signal into its GIA and hydrology (mass change) components. A Bayesian spatio-temporal model is implemented in INLA using satellite (GRACE) and in-situ (GPS) data as observations. Under the assumption that GIA varies in space but is constant in time, and that hydrology is both spatially- and temporally-variable, it is possible to separate the contributions of each component with an associated uncertainty level. Early results will be presented. Extensions to the BHM framework to investigate sea level rise at the global scale, such as the inclusion of additional processes and incorporation of increased volumes of data, will be discussed.</p>

scholarly journals A biological indicator for measuring and communicating local sea level rise captured in historic photographs.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Max Rouja ◽  
Craig W Schneider ◽  
Vid Petrovic ◽  
Steve Blasco ◽  
Eric Lo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Biological Indicator ◽  
Rocky Intertidal ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Blue Green Algae ◽  
Digital Twin ◽  
Upward Shift ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract This paper explores a novel approach to collecting and communicating local site-specific data on recent sea level rise (SLR) using black zone biotic levels left on historic coastal stone structures by a stable community of cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) at the Royal Naval Dockyard in Bermuda. Photographs taken at the Dockyard in 1870, 2007 and 2017 show an upward shift in this living cyanobacterial community. A spatio-temporal digital twin computed from historic and contemporary photo assets was created to test the viability of these black zone lines as a proxy for sea level rise (SLR) measurements in Bermuda. Shifts in these black zone lines when analyzed through the digital twin demonstrate an average upward shift of 2.2 mm per year between 1870 and 2007 and 2.7 mm per year between 1870 and 2017, somewhat lower than the Global estimates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report predictions. However, the digital twin showed a dramatic upward shift of 8.8 cm between 2007 and 2017, or 8.8 mm per year, which coincided with Bermuda's highest recorded tidal extent since 1932. Black zone cyanobacteria are highly SLR sensitive and over long time scales comparative imagery of black zones could present a proper indicator of average sea level rise. At timescales less than 10 years the black zone may be best indicative of episodic tidal extent. As SLR will continue to shift supralittoral cyanobacteria upwards in Bermuda and in warm rocky intertidal zones worldwide, tidal monitoring and black zone assessments may prove to be a useful combination in documenting and communicating the reality, extent and possible acceleration of local SLR.

scholarly journals Assessing population exposure to coastal flooding due to sea level rise

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathew E. Hauer ◽  
Dean Hardy ◽  
Scott A. Kulp ◽  
Valerie Mueller ◽  
David J. Wrathall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Population Exposure ◽  
Temporal Heterogeneity ◽  
Annual Probability ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Heterogeneity ◽  
Differential Exposure ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe exposure of populations to sea-level rise (SLR) is a leading indicator assessing the impact of future climate change on coastal regions. SLR exposes coastal populations to a spectrum of impacts with broad spatial and temporal heterogeneity, but exposure assessments often narrowly define the spatial zone of flooding. Here we show how choice of zone results in differential exposure estimates across space and time. Further, we apply a spatio-temporal flood-modeling approach that integrates across these spatial zones to assess the annual probability of population exposure. We apply our model to the coastal United States to demonstrate a more robust assessment of population exposure to flooding from SLR in any given year. Our results suggest that more explicit decisions regarding spatial zone (and associated temporal implication) will improve adaptation planning and policies by indicating the relative chance and magnitude of coastal populations to be affected by future SLR.

Glacial Contributions to 21st Century Sea Level Rise

Eos ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kate Wheeling
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Mass Change ◽  
Sources Of Uncertainty

Researchers identify the main sources of uncertainty in projections of global glacier mass change, which is expected to add about 8–16 centimeters to sea level, through this century.

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