scholarly journals Extreme value distributions describe interannual variability in the North Atlantic spring bloom

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Britten
2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (6) ◽  
pp. 2029-2040 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harriet S. Cole ◽  
Stephanie Henson ◽  
Adrian P. Martin ◽  
Andrew Yool

Abstract The annual phytoplankton bloom is a key event in pelagic ecosystems. Variability in the timing, or phenology, of these blooms affects ecosystem dynamics with implications for carbon export efficiency and food availability for higher trophic levels. Furthermore, interannual variability in phytoplankton bloom timing may be used to monitor changes in the pelagic ecosystem that are either naturally or anthropogenically forced. The onset of the spring bloom has traditionally been thought to be controlled by the restratification of the water column and shoaling of the mixed layer, as encapsulated in Sverdrup's critical depth hypothesis. However, this has been challenged by recent studies which have put forward different mechanisms. For example, the critical turbulence hypothesis attributes bloom initiation to a reduction in turbulent mixing associated with the onset of positive net heat fluxes (NHFs). To date, the majority of studies on bloom initiation mechanisms have concentrated on North Atlantic datasets leaving their validity in other subpolar regions unknown. Here, we use chlorophyll output from a model that assimilates satellite ocean colour data to calculate bloom initiation timing and examine the basin-wide drivers of spatial and interannual variability. We find that the date that the NHF turns positive is a stronger predictor for the date of bloom initiation, both spatially and interannually, across the North Atlantic than changes in the mixed layer depth. However, results obtained from the North Pacific and Southern Ocean show no such basin-wide coherency. The lack of consistency in the response of the subpolar basins indicates that other drivers are likely responsible for variability in bloom initiation. This disparity between basins suggests that the North Atlantic bloom initiation processes are unique and therefore that this region may not be a suitable model for a global, theoretical understanding of the mechanisms leading to the onset of the spring bloom.


Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 329
Author(s):  
Albenis Pérez-Alarcón ◽  
José C. Fernández-Alvarez ◽  
Rogert Sorí ◽  
Raquel Nieto ◽  
Luis Gimeno

The combined effect of the sea surface temperature (SST) and the North Atlantic subtropical high-pressure system (NASH) in the interannual variability of the genesis of tropical cyclones (TCs) and landfalling in the period 1980–2019 is explored in this study. The SST was extracted from the Centennial Time Scale dataset from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and TC records were obtained from the Atlantic Hurricane Database of the NOAA/National Hurricane Center. The genesis and landfalling regions were objectively clustered for this analysis. Seven regions of TC genesis and five for landfalling were identified. Intercluster differences were observed in the monthly frequency distribution and annual variability, both for genesis and landfalling. From the generalized least square multiple regression model, SST and NASH (intensity and position) covariates can explain 22.7% of the variance of the frequency of TC genesis, but it is only statistically significant (p < 0.1) for the NASH center latitude. The SST mostly modulates the frequency of TCs formed near the West African coast, and the NASH latitudinal variation affects those originated in the Lesser Antilles arc. For landfalling, both covariates explain 38.7% of the variance; however, significant differences are observed in the comparison between each region. With a statistical significance higher than 90%, SST and NASH explain 33.4% of the landfalling variability in the archipelago of the Bahamas and central–eastern region of Cuba. Besides, landfalls in the Gulf of Mexico and Central America seem to be modulated by SST. It was also found there was no statistically significant relationship between the frequency of genesis and landfalling with the NASH intensity. However, the NASH structure modulates the probability density of the TCs trajectory that make landfall once or several times in their lifetime. Thus, the NASH variability throughout a hurricane season affects the TCs trajectory in the North Atlantic basin. Moreover, we found that the landfalling frequency of TCs formed near the West Africa coast and the central North Atlantic is relatively low. Furthermore, the SST and NASH longitude center explains 31.6% (p < 0.05) of the variance of the landfalling intensity in the archipelago of the Bahamas, while the SST explains 26.4% (p < 0.05) in Central America. Furthermore, the 5-year moving average filter revealed decadal and multidecadal variability in both genesis and landfalling by region. Our findings confirm the complexity of the atmospheric processes involved in the TC genesis and landfalling.


2019 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evangelia Louropoulou ◽  
Martha Gledhill ◽  
Thomas J. Browning ◽  
Dhwani K. Desai ◽  
Jan-Lukas Menzel Barraqueta ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (14) ◽  
pp. 4661-4682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Virginie Racapé ◽  
Patricia Zunino ◽  
Herlé Mercier ◽  
Pascale Lherminier ◽  
Laurent Bopp ◽  
...  

Abstract. The North Atlantic Ocean is a major sink region for atmospheric CO2 and contributes to the storage of anthropogenic carbon (Cant). While there is general agreement that the intensity of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) modulates uptake, transport and storage of Cant in the North Atlantic Subpolar Ocean, processes controlling their recent variability and evolution over the 21st century remain uncertain. This study investigates the relationship between transport, air–sea flux and storage rate of Cant in the North Atlantic Subpolar Ocean over the past 53 years. Its relies on the combined analysis of a multiannual in situ data set and outputs from a global biogeochemical ocean general circulation model (NEMO–PISCES) at 1∕2∘ spatial resolution forced by an atmospheric reanalysis. Despite an underestimation of Cant transport and an overestimation of anthropogenic air–sea CO2 flux in the model, the interannual variability of the regional Cant storage rate and its driving processes were well simulated by the model. Analysis of the multi-decadal simulation revealed that the MOC intensity variability was the major driver of the Cant transport variability at 25 and 36∘ N, but not at OVIDE. At the subpolar OVIDE section, the interannual variability of Cant transport was controlled by the accumulation of Cant in the MOC upper limb. At multi-decadal timescales, long-term changes in the North Atlantic storage rate of Cant were driven by the increase in air–sea fluxes of anthropogenic CO2. North Atlantic Central Water played a key role for storing Cant in the upper layer of the subtropical region and for supplying Cant to Intermediate Water and North Atlantic Deep Water. The transfer of Cant from surface to deep waters occurred mainly north of the OVIDE section. Most of the Cant transferred to the deep ocean was stored in the subpolar region, while the remainder was exported to the subtropical gyre within the lower MOC.


2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 8477-8520 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Bagniewski ◽  
K. Fennel ◽  
M. J. Perry ◽  
E. A. D'Asaro

Abstract. The North Atlantic spring bloom is one of the main events that lead to carbon export to the deep ocean and drive oceanic uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere. Here we use a suite of physical, bio-optical and chemical measurements made during the 2008 spring bloom to optimize and compare three different models of biological carbon export. The observations are from a Lagrangian float that operated south of Iceland from early April to late June, and were calibrated with ship-based measurements. The simplest model is representative of typical NPZD models used for the North Atlantic, while the most complex model explicitly includes diatoms and the formation of fast sinking diatom aggregates and cysts under silicate limitation. We carried out a variational optimization and error analysis for the biological parameters of all three models, and compared their ability to replicate the observations. The observations were sufficient to constrain most phytoplankton-related model parameters to accuracies of better than 15%. However, the lack of zooplankton observations leads to large uncertainties in model parameters for grazing. The simulated vertical carbon flux at 100 m depth is similar between models and agrees well with available observations, but at 600 m the simulated flux is much larger for the model with diatom aggregation. While none of the models can be formally rejected based on their misfit with the available observations, the model that includes export by diatom aggregation has slightly better fit to the observations and more accurately represents the mechanisms and timing of carbon export based on observations not included in the optimization. Thus models that accurately simulate the upper 100 m do not necessarily accurately simulate export to deeper depths.


2014 ◽  
Vol 119 (9) ◽  
pp. 6121-6139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew B. Alkire ◽  
Craig Lee ◽  
Eric D'Asaro ◽  
Mary Jane Perry ◽  
Nathan Briggs ◽  
...  

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