scholarly journals Tropical cyclone wind speed constraints from resultant storm surge deposition: A 2500 year reconstruction of hurricane activity from St. Marks, FL

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 2993-3008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine M. Brandon ◽  
Jonathan D. Woodruff ◽  
D. Phil Lane ◽  
Jeffrey P. Donnelly
Author(s):  
Elio Roca-Flores ◽  
Gerardo G. Naumis

The ranking of events is a powerful way to study the complexity of rare catastrophic events as earthquakes and hurricanes. Hurricane activity can be quantified by the annual accumulated cyclone energy index (ACE), which contains the information of the maximum sustained wind speed, duration and frequency of the tropical cyclone season. Here, the ranking of the Northeast Pacific annual ACE is obtained and fitted using nonlinear regression with several two- and three-parameter ranking laws that fit the tail and head of the data, where lives the information of relevant events for human society. The logarithmic like function [Formula: see text] overperforms all other fits. A sliding window analysis of the parameters [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] of such a function shows that forcing and dissipation processes are anticorrelated.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Rezuanul Islam ◽  
Chia-Ying Lee ◽  
Kyle T. Mandli ◽  
Hiroshi Takagi

AbstractThis study presents a new storm surge hazard potential index (SSHPI) for estimating tropical cyclone (TC) induced peak surge levels at a coast. The SSHPI incorporates parameters that are often readily available at real-time: intensity in 10-min maximum wind speed, radius of 50-kt wind, translation speed, coastal geometry, and bathymetry information. The inclusion of translation speed and coastal geometry information lead to improvements of the SSHPI to other existing surge indices. A retrospective analysis of SSHPI using data from 1978–2019 in Japan suggests that this index captures historical events reasonably well. In particular, it explains ~ 66% of the observed variance and ~ 74% for those induced by TCs whose landfall intensity was larger than 79-kt. The performance of SSHPI is not sensitive to the type of coastal geometry (open coasts or semi-enclosed bays). Such a prediction methodology can decrease numerical computation requirements, improve public awareness of surge hazards, and may also be useful for communicating surge risk.


2021 ◽  
Vol 02 (03) ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Shih-Ang Hsu ◽  

Spatial relation between wind stress and storm surge during two hurricanes in 2020 is investigated. It is found that, during Laura’s landfall, the area inside of 65 knots (34 m s -1) isotach or line of equal wind speed can produce up to 18 ft (5.5 m) inundation and during Delta, the area inside of 50 knots (26 m s -1) up to 11 ft (3.3 m) high water level above the ground. The tropical cyclone (TC) surface analysis near landfall by the Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch (RAMMB) is recommended as a first approximation for coastal environmental and engineering applications during a TC.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Islam ◽  
Chia-Ying Lee ◽  
Kyle T. Mandli ◽  
Hiroshi Takagi

This study presents a new storm surge hazard potential index (SSHPI) for estimating tropical cyclone (TC) induced maximum surge levels at a coast. The SSHPI incorporates parameters that are often readily available at real-time: intensity in 10-minute maximum wind speed, radius of 50-kt wind, translation speed, coastal geometry, and bathymetry information. The inclusion of translation speed and coastal geometry information lead to improvements of the SSHPI to other existing surge indices. A retrospective analysis of SSHPI using data from 1978–2019 in Japan suggests that this index captures historical events reasonably well. In particular, it explains ~66% of the observed variance and ~74% for those induced by TCs whose landfall intensity was larger than 79-kt. The performance of SSHPI is not sensitive to the type of coastal geometry (open coasts or semi-enclosed bays). Such a prediction methodology can decrease numerical computation requirements, improve public awareness of surge hazards, and may also be useful for communicating surge risk.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Li

<p><span>Tropical cyclones could cause large casualties and economic loss in coastal area of China. It is of great importance to develop a method that can provide pre-event rapid loss assessment in a timely manner prior to the landing of a tropical cyclone. In this study, a pre-event tropical cyclone disaster loss assessment method based on similar tropical cyclone retrieval with multiple hazard indicators is proposed. Multiple indicators include tropical cyclone location, maximum wind speed, central pressure, radius of maximum wind, forward speed, Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE), maximum storm surge, and maximum significant wave height. Firstly, the track similarity is measured by similarity deviation considering only the locations of tropical cyclone tracks. Secondly, the intensity similarity is measured by best similarity coefficient using central pressure, radius of maximum wind, maximum wind speed, moving speed, wind, storm surge, and wave intensity indices. Then, the potential loss of current tropical cyclone is assessed based on the retrieved similar tropical cyclones loss. Taking tropical cyclone Utor (2013) that affected China as an example, the potential loss is predicted according to the five most similar historical tropical cyclones which are retrieved from all the historical tropical cyclones. The method is flexible for rapid disaster loss assessment since it provides a relatively satisfactory result based on two scenarios of input dataset availability.</span></p>


Author(s):  
Masafumi KIMIZUKA ◽  
Tomotsuka TAKAYAMA ◽  
Hiroyasu KAWAI ◽  
Masafumi MIYATA ◽  
Katsuya HIRAYAMA ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamish Steptoe ◽  
Nicholas Henry Savage ◽  
Saeed Sadri ◽  
Kate Salmon ◽  
Zubair Maalick ◽  
...  

AbstractHigh resolution simulations at 4.4 km and 1.5 km resolution have been performed for 12 historical tropical cyclones impacting Bangladesh. We use the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting 5th generation Re-Analysis (ERA5) to provide a 9-member ensemble of initial and boundary conditions for the regional configuration of the Met Office Unified Model. The simulations are compared to the original ERA5 data and the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) tropical cyclone database for wind speed, gust speed and mean sea-level pressure. The 4.4 km simulations show a typical increase in peak gust speed of 41 to 118 knots relative to ERA5, and a deepening of minimum mean sea-level pressure of up to −27 hPa, relative to ERA5 and IBTrACS data. The downscaled simulations compare more favourably with IBTrACS data than the ERA5 data suggesting tropical cyclone hazards in the ERA5 deterministic output may be underestimated. The dataset is freely available from 10.5281/zenodo.3600201.


2021 ◽  
Vol 164 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nobuhito Mori ◽  
Nozomi Ariyoshi ◽  
Tomoya Shimura ◽  
Takuya Miyashita ◽  
Junichi Ninomiya

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