Impact of cyclone bogusing and regional assimilation on tropical cyclone track and intensity predictions

bl v/;;u dk mÌs’; vYi vof/k iwokZuqeku esa pØokr ds iFk vkSj mldh rhozrk dk iwokZuqeku yxkus ds fy, MCY;w-vkj-,Q- lehdj.k vkSj iwokZuqeku iz.kkyh esa m".kdfVca/kh; dkYifud pØokr ds vk/kkj ij mlds izHkko dk fu/kkZj.k djuk gSA bl izHkko dks pØokr ds izHkko dh =qfV] dsUnzh; nkc vkSj vf/kdre lrr iou xfr ds :i esa crk;k x;k gSA ;g v/;;u o"kZ 2010 esa cus rhu pØokrksa uker% ‘ySyk’ ¼caxky dh [kkM+h½] ‘fxjh’ ¼caxky dh [kkM+h½ vkSj ‘QsV’ ¼vjc lkxj½ ij vk/kkfjr gSA MCY;w- vkj- ,Q- ekWMy izpkyukRed ,u-lh-,e- vkj-MCY;w-,Q- Vh- 382 ,y 64 ds fo’ys"k.k vkSj iwokZuqekuksa dk mi;ksx djrk gS vkSj bl ekWMy dks pØokr ds iFk vkSj bldh rhozrk dk iwokZuqeku yxkus ds fy, 72 ?kaVs rd lekdfyr fd;k x;k gSA bl ijh{k.k ds pkj lSVksa dh tk¡p dh xbZ ¼i½ fu;a=.k ijh{k.k ¼lh-,u-Vh-,y-½ ftlesa uk rks lehdj.k vkSj uk gh dkYifud pØokr dks vk/kkj ekuk x;k gSA bl ekWMy dk vkjaHk varoZsf’kr HkweaMyh; ekWMy fo’ys"k.k dk mi;ksx djrs gq, fd;k x;kA ¼ii½ lehdj.k ijh{k.k ¼oh-,-vkj-½ esa MCY;w- vkj- ,Q- oh- ,- vkj- vk¡dM+k lehdj.k iz.kkyh ¼fcuk dkYifud vk/kkj ij ekuk x;k pØokr½ dk mi;ksx djrs gq, ekWMy dh vkjafHkd fLFkfr;k¡ rS;kj dh xbaZA ¼iii½ pØokr ds ijh{k.k ¼ch-vks-th-½ lehdj.k ds fcuk dsoy dkYifud pØokr dks ekurs gq, dkYifud vk/kkj ij pØokr ds iz;ksx fd, x, gSaA bl ekeys esa dkYifud vk?kkj ij pØokr dk mi;ksx djrs gq, ekWMy ds izFke vuqeku dks la’kksf/kr fd;k x;k vkSj bldk vkjafHkd fLFkfr;ksa ds :i esa mi;ksx fd;k x;k gSA ¼iv½ pkSFks ijh{k.k esa dkYifud vk/kkj ij pØokr ds ckn MCY;-w vkj- ,Q- vk¡dM+k lehdj.k ¼ch- vks- th- oh- ,- vkj-½ nksuksa dk mi;ksx djrs gq, ekWMy dh vkjafHkd fLFkfr;k¡ rS;kj dh xbZA buls izkIr gq, ijh.kkeksa ls vkjafHkd fLFkfr;ksa esa dkYifud pØokr ds mYys[kuh; izHkko dk irk pyk gSA ;s rhuksa gh pØokr dkYifud ¼ch-vks-th- vkSj oh-,-vkj-½ iz;ksxksa dh vkjafHkd fLFkfr;ksa ¼0000 ;w- Vh- lh-½ esa ik, x, tk ldrs gSa tks vU;Fkk dkYifud vk/kkj ij rS;kj fd, x, pØokrksa ds vHkko esa ¼oh- ,-vkj- vkSj lh- ,u- Vh- ,y-½ iz;ksx esa ugha gksrh gSA ch- vks- th- oh- ,- vkj- ijh{k.k ds iFk =qfV;ksa esa mYys[kuh; deh ns[kh xbZ gSA oh- ,- vkj- dh rqyuk esa ch- vks- th- oh- ,- vkj- esa iFk =qfV esa vf/kdre deh Øe’k% ‘ySyk’ esa 76-8 izfr’kr] ‘fxjh’ esa 87-3 izfr’kr vkSj ‘QsV’ esa 51-5 izfr’kr jghA ‘ySyk’ vkSj ‘fxjh’ ds fy, oh-,-vkj- dh rqyuk esa ch-vks-th-oh-,-vkj- esa fy, x, izs{k.k vf/kdre lrr@Øfed iou xfr vkSj vf/kdre dsUnzh; nkc ds fudV gSaA The aim of this study is to assess the impact of tropical cyclone bogusing in WRF assimilation and forecast system for cyclone track and intensity prediction in short range forecast. The impact is demonstrated in terms of track error, central pressure, and maximum sustained wind speed. The study is based on the three cyclones; namely 'LAILA' (Bay of Bengal), 'GIRI' (Bay of Bengal) and 'PHET' (Arabian Sea), formed in the year 2010. The WRF model makes use of the operational NCMRWF T382L64 analysis and forecasts and the model is integrated upto 72 hrs for producing the cyclone track and intensity forecast. Four sets of experiments were performed: (i) The control experiment (CNTL) in which neither assimilation nor cyclone bogusing is done. The model is initialized using interpolated global model analysis. (ii) In assimilation experiment (VAR), model initial condition is prepared using WRF VAR data assimilation system (without cyclone bogusing). (iii) The cyclone bogusing experiment (BOG) featuring cyclone bogusing alone without assimilation. In this case the model first guess is modified using cyclone bogusing and used as the initial condition. (iv) In the forth experiment, the initial condition of the model is prepared with both cyclone bogusing followed with WRF data assimilation (BOGVAR). Results indicate remarkable impact of cyclone bogusing on the initial condition. All three cyclones can be located in the initial conditions (0000 UTC) of bogus (BOG and BOGVAR) experiments which were otherwise absent in no-bogus (VAR and CNTL) experiments. Significant reductions in track errors occurred in BOGVAR experiment. The maximum reduction in track error in BOGVAR compare to VAR is 76.8 % in 'LAILA', 87.3 % in 'GIRI' and 51.5 % in 'PHET' respectively. Maximum sustained wind speed and minimum central pressure are close to observations in BOGVAR compared to VAR for 'LAILA' and 'GIRI'.

Increased Backward Wave Pressures Rather than Flow Explain Age-Dependent Heart Rate Effects on Central, But not Peripheral Arterial Pressure

Through both backward (Pb) and forward (Pf) wave effects, a lower heart rate (HR) associates with increased central (PPc), beyond brachial pulse pressure (PP). However, the relative contribution to Pf of aortic flow (Q) versus re-reflection of Pb, has not been determined. Using central pressure, aortic velocity and diameter measurements in the outflow tract (echocardiography), we constructed central pressure waveforms that account for the relative contribution of Q versus re-reflection to Pf. We thus evaluated the mechanisms of HR-PPc relations in a community sample (n=824) and the impact of age thereon. Inverse HR-PPc ( P <0.0001), but not HR-brachial PP ( P =0.064) relations were noted. The slope of HR-PPc relation was increased in older adults ( P <0.005). HR was inversely associated with ventricular filling time, ejection duration, stroke volume, and peak Pf ( P <0.001 to P <0.0001). However, an increased Q and hence pressures generated by the product of aortic characteristic impedance and Q did not account for Pf effects. Age-dependent HR-PPc and Pf relations were both accounted for by enhanced Pb ( P <0.0001) with an increased Pf mediated by increments in wave re-reflection ( P <0.0001). The lack of impact of ejection duration on PPc was explained by an increased time to peak Pb ( P <0.0001). In conclusion, increases in PPc and Pf at a decreased HR are accounted for by an enhanced Pb rather than by a prolonged ejection or filling duration and hence flow (Q). These effects at a young-to-middle age are of little clinical significance, but at an older age, are of clinical importance.

Impact of physical parameterization schemes on the numerical simulation of Orissa Super Cyclone (1999)

& 29 vDrwcj] 1999 dks mM+hlk esa vk, egkpØokr dks izfr:fir djus ds fy, isuflyosfu;k LVsV ;wfuoflZVh ds jk"Vªh; ok;qeaMyh; vuqla/kku dsUnz ds eslksLdsy ekWMy ¼,e- ,e- 5½ ds xSj&nzoLFkSfrd :ikarj dk mi;ksx fd;k x;k gSA pØokr ds ekxZ vkSj mlds fodkl ij dSu&fÝ’k] csV~l&feyj] xzsy vkSj ,aFksl&dqvks uked pkj diklh izkpyhdj.k Ldheksa rFkk gk¡x&iSu vkSj cdZ FkkWEilu uked nks xzgh; ifjlhek Lrj izkpyhdj.k ¼ih- ch- ,y-½ Ldheks ds izHkko dk v/;;u djus ds fy, iz;ksx fd, x, gSA pØokr dh xfr] U;wure nkc dk fodkl] o"kkZ dk iSVuZ vkSj rkieku ds m/okZ/kj ØkWl lsD’ku ds laca/k esa laosnu’khyrk dh tk¡p dh xbZ gSA ,aFksl&dqvks Ldhe dks NksM+dj vU; lHkh izfr:i.k vfr {kh.k ifjlapj.k ls vfr izpaM pØokrh; rwQku fodflr djus esa l{ke gSaA U;wure dsUnzh; nkc dk cuuk fofHkUu diklh Ldheksa esa vf/kd laosnu’khyrk n’kkZrk gS ftlesa lekdyu vof/k ds 4 fnuksa ds nkSjku dSu&fÝ’k Ldhe ls 966 gS- ik- vkSj ,aFksl&dqvks Ldhe ls 1004 gS- ik- jghA izfr:fir pØokr dh xfr ij fofHkUu diklh izkpyhdj.k Ldheksa dk egRoiw.kZ izHkko jgk gSA blls izkIr gq, ifj.kkeksa ls irk pyk gS fd dSu&fÝ’k vkSj gk¡x&iSu dh feyh tqyh Ldheksa ls pØokr ds U;wure dsUnzh; nkc dk fodkl vkSj iouksa dh {kSfrt ,oa m/okZ/kj lajpukvksa] rkieku folaxfr;ksa vkSj jsucSaM y{k.kksa dks vPNh rjg iznf’kZr fd;k tk ldrk gSA Non-hydrostatic version of Pennsylvania State University- National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model (MM5) is used to simulate the super cyclonic storm that crossed Orissa coast on 29 October, 1999. Experiments are carried out with four cumulus parameterization schemes namely; Kain-Fritsch, Betts-Miller, Grell and Anthes-Kuo and two planetary boundary layer parameterization (PBL) schemes namely; Hong-Pan and Burk-Thompson to study their impact on the movement and development of the cyclone. The sensitivity is examined in terms of movement, evolution of minimum pressure, rainfall pattern and vertical cross section of temperature. All the simulations are able to develop the very severe cyclonic storm from very weak circulation except with Anthes-Kuo scheme. The evolution of the minimum central pressure shows much sensitivity among the different cumulus schemes with Kain-Fritsch producing 966 hPa while Anthes-Kuo 1004 hPa during the 4 days of the integration period. Different cumulus parameterization schemes show significant impact on the simulated movement of the cyclone. The results reveal that the evolution of minimum central pressure and horizontal as well as vertical structures of winds, temperature anomalies and rainband characteristic to a cyclone are well brought out by the combination of Kain-Fritsch and Hong-Pan schemes.

D-dimensional self-gravitating lattice gas in general relativity

Using a lattice equation of state combined with the D-dimensional Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkoff equation and the Friedmann equations, we investigate the possibility of the formation of compact objects as well as the time evolution of the scale factor and the density profile of a self-gravitating material cluster. The numerical results show that in a ([Formula: see text])-dimensional space–time, the mass is independent of the central pressure. Hence, the formation of only compact objects with a finite constant mass similar to the white dwarf is possible. However, in a ([Formula: see text])-dimensional space–time, self-gravity leads to the formation of compact objects with a large gap of mass and the corresponding phase diagram has the same structure as the one for Neutron Star. The results also show that beyond certain critical central pressure, the star is unstable against gravitational collapse, and it may end in a black hole. Analysis of space–times of higher dimensions shows that gravity has the stronger effect in [Formula: see text] dimensions. Numerical solutions of the Friedmann equations show that the effect of the curvature of space–time increases with the increasing temperature, but decreases with the increasing dimensionality beyond [Formula: see text].

Nebivolol – a place in the therapy of hypertension in various clinical situations

Nebivolol is a long-acting, most cardioselective β1-blocker. It stimulates endothelial production of nitric oxide, demonstrating vasodilatory and pleiotropic effects. It has better tolerance compared to classic β-blockers. It lowers the central pressure, reducing the risk of cardiovascular events. It is the preferred β-blocker in the treatment of hypertension in various clinical situations.

Modeling Study on the Asymmetry of Positive and Negative Storm Surges along the Southeastern Coast of China

In this paper, a three-dimensional storm surge model was developed based on the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) by the hindcasts of four typhoon-induced storm surges (Chan-hom, Mireille, Herb, and Winnie). After model validation, a series of sensitivity experiments were conducted to explore the effects of key parameters in the wind and pressure field (forward speed, radius of maximum wind (RMW), inflow angle, and central pressure), typhoon path, wind intensity, and topography on the storm surge and surge asymmetry between sea level rise (positive surge) and fall (negative surge) along the southeastern coast of China (SCC). The model results show that lower central pressure and larger RMW could lead to stronger surge asymmetry. A larger inflow angle results in a stronger surge asymmetry. In addition, the path of Chan-hom is the most dangerous path type for the Zhoushan Archipelago area, and that of Winnie follows next. The model results also indicate that the non-linear interaction between wind field and pressure field tends to weaken the peak surge elevation. The effect of topography on storm surges indicates that the peak surge elevation and its occurrence time, as well as the surge asymmetry, increase with a decreasing slope along the SCC.

Changes in Noninvasive Arterial Stiffness and Central Blood Pressure After Endovascular Abdominal Aneurysm Repair

Purpose: To evaluate the impact of elective endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) on the carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV) and central pressure waveform, through 1-year follow-up. Materials and Methods: A tonometric device was used to measure cfPWV and estimate the central pressure waveform in 20 patients with an infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm scheduled for elective EVAR. The evaluated central hemodynamic parameters included the central pressures, the augmentation index (AIx), and the subendocardial viability ratio (SEVR). AIx quantifies the contribution of reflected wave to the central systolic pressure, whereas SEVR describes the myocardial perfusion relative to the cardiac workload. Measurements were performed before EVAR, at discharge, and 6 weeks and 1 year after EVAR. Results: CfPWV was increased at discharge (12.4±0.4 vs 11.3±0.5 m/s at baseline; p=0.005) and remained elevated over the course of 1-year follow-up (6 weeks: cfPWV = 12.2±0.5 m/s; 1 year: cfPWV = 12.2±0.7 m/s, p<0.05). After an initial drop in systolic central pressure at discharge, all the central pressures increased thereafter up to 1 year, without significant differences compared with baseline. The same was observed for the AIx and SEVR. Conclusion: Endovascular aortic aneurysm repair caused an increase in pulse wave velocity compared with baseline, which remained elevated through 1 year follow-up, which may be related to an increased cardiovascular risk. However, no differences in central pressure, augmentation index, and subendocardial viability ration were observed during follow-up.