scholarly journals A moving average heterogeneous autoregressive model for forecasting the realized volatility of the US stock market: Evidence from over a century of data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Afees A. Salisu ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Autoregressive Model ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
The Us

Theoretical and practical motivations for the use of the moving average rule in the stock market

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noureddine Kouaissah ◽  
Davide Orlandini ◽  
Sergio Ortobelli ◽  
Tomas Tichý
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Market Failures ◽  
Trading Rules ◽  
Portfolio Strategies ◽  
Average Rule ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Potential Market ◽  
The Us ◽  
Theoretical Foundations

Abstract This paper provides some theoretical foundations for using moving average (MA) rules in the stock market. In particular, the paper analyzes the conditional probability of price increments and examines how this probability varies over time. We prove under certain assumptions that the probability of being in an uptrend is greater than the probability of being in a downtrend. This demonstration partially justifies the common use of MA rules in the stock market. Finally, we propose an ex-post empirical analysis to evaluate and compare the performance of some MA rules and other portfolio strategies in the US stock market. In this context, we also suggest a methodology that incorporates these trading rules as alarm rules to predict potential market failures. Our ex-post results confirm the advantages of using these trading rules to predict market trends and crises.

Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform, Graph Theory And Backpropagation Neural Network In Stock Market Forecasting

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-46
Author(s):  
Rosalina Rosalina ◽  
Hendra Jayanto
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Graph Theory ◽  
Wavelet Transform ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Discrete Wavelet Transform ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Discrete Wavelet ◽  
Stock Market Forecasting ◽  
Artificial Neural

The aim of this paper is to get high accuracy of stock market forecasting in order to produce signals that will affect the decision making in the trading itself. Several experiments by using different methodologies have been performed to answer the stock market forecasting issues. A traditional linear model, like autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) has been used, but the result is not satisfactory because it is not suitable for model financial series. Yet experts are likely observed another approach by using artificial neural networks. Artificial neural network (ANN) are found to be more effective in realizing the input-output mapping and could estimate any continuous function which given an arbitrarily desired accuracy. In details, in this paper will use maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) and graph theory to distinguish and determine between low and high frequencies, which in this case acted as fundamental and technical prediction of stock market trading. After processed dataset is formed, then we will advance to the next level of the training process to generate the final result that is the buy or sell signals given from information whether the stock price will go up or down.

The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Stock Market in the United States (U.S); Evidence from Linear ARDL Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-132
Author(s):  
Aref Emamian
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the stock market in the United States (US), were used. By employing the method of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Annual data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, the results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real Gross Domestic Product and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Keywords: ARDL, monetary policy, fiscal policy, stock market, United States

External Shocks and the Heterogeneous Autoregressive Model of Realized Volatility

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-216
Author(s):  
Cheoljun Eom ◽  
◽  
Uk Chang ◽  
Jong Won Park
Keyword(s):  
Autoregressive Model ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
External Shocks

Absence of the weekend effect and industry-style portfolios

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 463-475
Author(s):  
Selma Izadi ◽  
Abdullah Noman
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Weekend Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Portfolio ◽  
The Us ◽  
Using Data

Purpose The existence of the weekend effect has been reported from the 1950s to 1970s in the US stock markets. Recently, Robins and Smith (2016, Critical Finance Review, 5: 417-424) have argued that the weekend effect has disappeared after 1975. Using data on the market portfolio, they document existence of structural break before 1975 and absence of any weekend effects after that date. The purpose of this study is to contribute some new empirical evidences on the weekend effect for the industry-style portfolios in the US stock market using data over 90 years. Design/methodology/approach The authors re-examine persistence or reversal of the weekend effect in the industry portfolios consisting of The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), The American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and The National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations exchange (NASDAQ) stocks using daily returns from 1926 to 2017. Our results confirm varying dates for structural breaks across industrial portfolios. Findings As for the existence of weekend effects, the authors get mixed results for different portfolios. However, the overall findings provide broad support for the absence of weekend effects in most of the industrial portfolios as reported in Robins and Smith (2016). In addition, structural breaks for other weekdays and days of the week effects for other days have also been documented in the paper. Originality/value As far as the authors are aware, this paper is the first research that analyzes weekend effect for the industry-style portfolios in the US stock market using data over 90 years.

Defeating the Minotaur: The Construction of CEO Charisma on the US Stock Market

2006 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 811-832 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angelo Fanelli ◽  
Nora Ilona Grasselli
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Charismatic Leadership ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Active Involvement ◽  
Securities Analysts ◽  
The Us ◽  
Organizational Symbolism ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Ceo Successions ◽  
Securities Analyst

This paper illustrates the construction of CEO charisma within the US stock market. By metaphorically employing the myth of the Minotaur, we discuss three forces underlying the rise of heroic CEO images in the USA: Ariadne, or charismatic leadership theory and its formulation of charisma; Theseus, or the CEOs struggling to obtain power over stock market actors; and the Minotaur, or the stock market itself and the securities analyst profession. Building on the literature on organizational symbolism, we present a qualitative study of two CEO successions, focusing on the form and content of the persona and the vision projected by CEOs and elaborated by securities analysts. The results suggest that jointly constructing charisma through discourse, CEOs and analysts enact a form of power that does not lie in top-down coercion, but rather on the emergent, active involvement and contribution of its very subjects.

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