Evaluation of extreme climate events using a regional climate model for China

2014 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 888-902 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenming Ji ◽  
Shichang Kang
2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (19) ◽  
pp. 4881-4886 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noah S. Diffenbaugh ◽  
Deepti Singh ◽  
Justin S. Mankin ◽  
Daniel E. Horton ◽  
Daniel L. Swain ◽  
...  

Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.


2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 199-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rupak Rajbhandari ◽  
Arun Bhakta Shrestha ◽  
Santosh Nepal ◽  
Shahriar Wahid ◽  
Guo-Yu Ren

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 3665-3675 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingfeng Xiao ◽  
Shuguang Liu ◽  
Paul C. Stoy

Abstract. The impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances (ECE&D) on the carbon cycle have received growing attention in recent years. This special issue showcases a collection of recent advances in understanding the impacts of ECE&D on carbon cycling. Notable advances include quantifying how harvesting activities impact forest structure, carbon pool dynamics, and recovery processes; observed drastic increases of the concentrations of dissolved organic carbon and dissolved methane in thermokarst lakes in western Siberia during a summer warming event; disentangling the roles of herbivores and fire on forest carbon dioxide flux; direct and indirect impacts of fire on the global carbon balance; and improved atmospheric inversion of regional carbon sources and sinks by incorporating disturbances. Combined, studies herein indicate several major research needs. First, disturbances and extreme events can interact with one another, and it is important to understand their overall impacts and also disentangle their effects on the carbon cycle. Second, current ecosystem models are not skillful enough to correctly simulate the underlying processes and impacts of ECE&D (e.g., tree mortality and carbon consequences). Third, benchmark data characterizing the timing, location, type, and magnitude of disturbances must be systematically created to improve our ability to quantify carbon dynamics over large areas. Finally, improving the representation of ECE&D in regional climate/earth system models and accounting for the resulting feedbacks to climate are essential for understanding the interactions between climate and ecosystem dynamics.


2013 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 173-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
X Wang ◽  
M Yang ◽  
G Wan ◽  
X Chen ◽  
G Pang

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