A circulation‐based approach considering non‐stationarities within the scope of statistical downscaling: An example of seasonal daily precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean area

2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 1912-1926 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Merkenschlager ◽  
Elke Hertig
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
The Mediterranean

Seasonal assessments of future precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean area considering nonstationarities in predictor-predictand relationships

2020 ◽  
Vol 80 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-42
Author(s):  
C Merkenschlager ◽  
E Hertig
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Northern Spain ◽  
Central Mediterranean ◽  
Censored Quantile Regression ◽  
The Mediterranean

Within the context of analyzing daily heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean under enhanced greenhouse gas forcing in the 21st century, a new method considering non-stationarities in the relationships of large-scale circulation predictors and regional precipitation extremes was applied. The Mediterranean area was split into up to 22 precipitation regions, and analyses were performed separately for 3 different seasons (autumn, winter and spring) and 3 different quantiles (90th, 95th and 99th). Estimations are based on a three-step censored quantile regression. Future estimations are performed by means of 3 model runs of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model with Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Overall, the Mediterranean is mainly characterized by decreasing quantile values. Especially in the regions in the southeast, declines are significant, with up to 71.7% (-1.65 mm) in the Levante region (autumn) and over 16 mm (-38.2%) on Crete (winter). Increased precipitation quantiles were only assessed for a more or less extended region in the northern parts of the Central Mediterranean (winter and spring), for the northeastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula (autumn) and for northern Spain (spring). Overall, analyses showed that non-stationarities seriously affect precipitation behavior in most parts of the Mediterranean. Results indicated that 2 different regimes (western and eastern) inducing non-stationarities are predominant in the Mediterranean area. In autumn (winter), the western (eastern) regime is limited to the Iberian Peninsula (Levante), whereas in spring, the area of influence of both regimes is of equal size.

Statistical and dynamical downscaling assessments of precipitation extremes in the Mediterranean area

2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elke Hertig ◽  
Andreas Paxian ◽  
Gernot Vogt ◽  
Stefanie Seubert ◽  
Heiko Paeth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
The Mediterranean

scholarly journals Explaining recent trends in extreme precipitation in the Southwestern Alps by changes in atmospheric influences

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juliette Blanchet ◽  
Antoine Blanc ◽  
Jean-Dominique Creutin
Keyword(s):  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Return Level ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
French Alps ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Risk Protection ◽  
Southwestern Alps

<p>We analyze recent trends in extreme daily precipitation in the Southwestern Alps. We consider a high-resolution precipitation dataset of 1 x1 km<sup>2</sup> for the period 1958-2017. A robust method of trend estimation is considered, based on nonstationary extreme value distribution and a homogeneous neighborhood approach. The results show contrasting trends in extreme daily precipitation depending on the season. In autumn, the trends are significantly increasing in most of the Southwestern Greater Alpine Region, with an increase up to 100% the average maxima for the 20-year return level between 1958 and 2017, while the French Alps show mainly decreasing extremes. Knowing that autumn experiences most of the largest maxima, the increase in the Mediterranean area is of concern for risk protection.  In winter, the valleys and medium mountain areas surrounding the Northern French Alps show significant increasing extremes, while the inner French Alps, the Swiss Valais and the Aosta Valley show significant decreasing trends. In the other seasons, the significant trends are mostly negative in the Mediterranean area, while the French Alps show less organized and contrasting trends.  For all seasons, part of the significant changes in extremes can be related to changes in the dominant atmospheric influences generating the maxima, particularly in the Mediterranean influenced region that shows the most organized trends. In particular, the strong positive trends in autumn in Southern France are concomitant with an increase in Mediterranean influence generating the maxima. However some exceptions are notable with counter-intuitive trends in extremes given the trends in dominant influences. </p>

Spatial Distribution of Pre-Warm Front Rainfall in the Mediterranean Area

1988 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Corradini ◽  
F. Melone
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Compact Structure ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Air Mass ◽  
Orographic Effects ◽  
Warm Front ◽  
Average Rainfall ◽  
Convective Motions ◽  
Rainfall Type ◽  
The Mediterranean

Evidence is given of the distribution of pre-warm front rainfall at the meso-γ scale, together with a discussion of the main mechanisms producing this variability. An inland region in the Mediterranean area is considered. The selected rainfall type is commonly considered the most regular inasmuch as it is usually unaffected by extended convective motions. Despite this, within a storm a large variability in space was observed. For 90% of measurements, the typical deviations from the area-average total depth ranged from - 40 to 60 % and the storm ensemble-average rainfall rate over an hilly zone was 60 % greater than that in a contiguous low-land zone generally placed upwind. This variability is largely explained in terms of forced uplift of air mass over an envelope type orography. For a few storms smaller orographic effects were found in locations influenced by an orography with higher slopes and elevations. This feature is ascribed to the compact structure of these mountains which probably determines a deflection of air mass in the boundary layer. The importance of this type of analysis in the hydrological practice is also emphasized.

Warfare and Environment in the Ancient World

2013 ◽  
pp. 127-140
Author(s):  
J. Donald Hughes
Keyword(s):  
Natural Environment ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Near East ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Ancient World ◽  
Direct Effects ◽  
Environmental Properties ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Ancient Warfare ◽  
The Military

This chapter deals with ancient warfare and the environment. Hunting was often been considered as a form of warfare, and art frequently portrayed humans in battle with animals. Armed conflict had its direct influences on the environment. Along with damage to settled agriculture, warfare had affected other lands such as pastures, brush lands, and forests. It is noted that birds, pigs, bears, rodents, snakes, bees, wasps, scorpions, beetles, assassin bugs, and jellyfish have been employed as weaponized animals in ancient warfare, which, in the Mediterranean area and Near East, had vital environmental properties. The direct effects of battle have been shown by ancient historians, but just as important were the influences of the military-oriented organization of societies on the natural environment and resources.

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