(Un)Natural Disasters: Electoral Cycles in Disaster Relief

Emergency spending is often exempt from campaign period restrictions and procurement guidelines, making it attractive for opportunistic politicians, but natural disasters are seen as outside political business cycles. However, droughts are frequent but challenging to measure, so politicians can leverage discretion for electoral gain. This paper analyzes electoral cycles, term limits, and partisan targeting around municipal drought declaration in Northeast Brazil. Two sources of exogeneity (rainfall shocks, electoral calendar) isolate the effect of non-climatic factors on drought declarations. I find that drought declarations, which trigger relief, are more likely in mayoral election years. Incumbents are more likely to win re-election if they declare a drought in the election year, during below or even above average rainfall. The results are consistent with interviews suggesting voters reward competent mayors and mayors trade relief for votes. This study highlights the interaction between distributive and environmental politics, which has increasing consequences due to climate change.

Geometric and Physical Characteristics of Precipitation Clouds in Tibetan Plateau

This paper examines the basic geometric and physical characteristics of precipitation clouds over the Tibetan Plateau, based on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) data from 1998 to 2015, using the minimum bounding rectangle (MBR) method. The results show that about 60% of the precipitation clouds occur with a scale of approximately 18 km (length) and 15 km (width), and the proportion of precipitation clouds with a length longer than 100 km and a width wider than 90 km is less than 1%. Most of the precipitation cloud exhibits a shape between square and long strips in the horizontal direction and lanky in the vertical direction. The average rainfall intensity of precipitation clouds is between 0.5 and 6 mm h−1. The average length and width of precipitation clouds show a logarithmic, linear relationship. The distribution of raindrops in precipitation clouds is relatively compact. With the expansion of the area, the precipitation clouds gradually become squatty. The relationship between physical and geometric parameters of precipitation clouds shows that with the precipitation cloud area expanding, the average rainfall rate of precipitation clouds also increases. Heavy convective rainfall is more likely to occur in larger precipitation clouds. For the precipitation clouds of the same size, the area fraction and contribution of convective precipitation are lower than that of stratiform precipitation.

Analysis of the suitability of rice farming land as an opportunity for determining the agricultural planting calendar in Ajibarang District, Banyumas Regency, Central Java Province

Ajibarang District is one of the areas in Banyumas Regency with a high level of productivity, but the decrease in rainfall in 2017-2019 caused Ajibarang District to have difficulty in developing their agriculture so that farmers experienced crop failure. The impact that occurs from crop failure causes the land to not be cultivated and if it is cultivated, farmers plant secondary crops. It is also greatly influenced by climate change that occurs. In fact, Ajibarang Subdistrict is included in the B2 Climate Zone with an average rainfall of 1000 - 2000 mm/year which is a climate zone business. The purpose of this study was to determine the opportunities for the rice planting that is very suitable for rice farming. In addition, the Ajibarang Sub-district is also drained by a large river, namely the Serayu River and the Tajum River which are tributaries of the river. So, it is necessary to adjust the climate to be able to determine a suitable planting calendar for agricultural calendar in Ajibarang District. Method The research used is the Forward Sampling and Backward Sampling analysis methods. So, the results of this study resulted in a rice and secondary cropping calendar with three planting seasons in one year and two dry seasons in one year.

Climate trends and climate change scenarios in Ho Chi Minh City

This paper reviews the trends of climate and climate change scenarios in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). The linear regression method is used to determine the trend and variation of past climate (1980-2019) at Tan Son Hoa station. The annual average temperature tends to increase about 0.024°C/year (r2=0.54) and the rainfall tends to increase about 6.03 mm/year (r2=0.67). For temperature scenario, by 2030 the annual average temperature in the whole city will increase from 0.80- 0.81°C (RCP4.5) and 0.92-0.98°C (RCP8.5). By 2050, it will increase 1.23-1.33°C (RCP4.5) and 1.55-1.68°C (RCP8.5). By 2100, it will increase 1.75-1.88°C (RCP4.5) and 3.20-3.55°C (RCP8.5) compared to the base period. Regarding rainfall scenario, in 2030, the city-wide average rainfall will increase by 12-21% (RCP4.5) and by 12-17% (RCP8.5). By 2050, the average rainfall is likely to increase by 13-15% (RCP4.5) and 15-17% (RCP8.5). By 2100, the average rainfall is likely to increase by 18-22% (RCP4.5) and 20-21% (RCP8.5) compared to the base period.

50 year rainfall data analysis and future trend in Saharanpur region

The environmental implications of rainfall pattern in replenishment of ground water system of Saharanpur region, located in western Uttar Pradesh, have been discussed. The mathematical analysis of rainfall dissimilarity of Saharanpur region for a period of 50 year (1959 to 2008) display a quite good range from 497.70 to 4357.5 mm with an annual average rainfall value of 1209.8 mm. The positive trend of departure from the computer value of average annual rainfall exhibits appropriate periods for recharge of ground water reservoir. The recorded data of annual rainfall during the last 3 year reveal values below the calculated annual average rainfall, pointing out negative trend. The statistical analysis of rainfall data involves computations of various statistical parameters, which also support the negative trend of rainfall. The prediction of expected future rainfall trend for a period up to 2018 has been made, which indicates a negative trend. The proposal have been incorporated to implement a plan for augmentation of ground water resource and also to develop possibilities of rainwater harvesting.

Modeling the Impact of High Temperature on Mortality in Pakistan

The objective of this paper is to model and study the impact of high temperature on mortality in Pakistan. For this purpose, we have used mortality and climate data consisting of maximum temperature, variation in monthly temperature, average rainfall, humidity, dewpoint, as well as average air pressure in the country over the period from 2000 to 2019. We have used the Generalized Linear Model with Quasi-Poisson link function to model the number of deaths in the country and to assess the impact of maximum temperature on mortality. We have found that the maximum temperature in the country has a significant impact on mortality. The number of deaths in Pakistan increases as the maximum temperature increases. We found that, as the maximum temperature increase beyond 30 °C, mortality increases significantly. Our results indicate that mortality increases by 27% when the maximum temperature in the country increases from medium category to a very high level. Similarly, the number of deaths in the country increases by 11% when the temperature increases from medium temperature to high level. Furthermore, our study found that when the maximum temperature in the country decreases from a medium level to a low level, the number of deaths in the country decreases by 23%. This study does not consider the impact of other factors on mortality, such as age, medical conditions, gender, geographical location, as well as variability of temperature across the country.

Effect of Hydrological Data on Flood Management in Urban Areas

Floods can occur due to rising water levels due to above-normal rainfall, changes in temperature, broken embankments/dams, rapid snowmelt, obstruction of water flow in other places, and putting people at risk of annual disasters due to flooding. The purpose of this study was to obtain a more detailed description of hydrological conditions so that flooding in the Bandar Lampung urban area can be optimally managed or controlled. The method used in flood control research is the analysis of the calculation of the average rainfall in the watershed, and the calculation of the planned discharge. The results of the analysis show that the existing drainage channels that have been carried out for each channel point have dimensions that are not large enough so that they are not sufficient to accommodate water runoff. so that for a 5-year discharge of 28.058 m3/s, the dimensions of the channel are 3 m wide and 2.6 m deep and for a 10-year discharge of 30.609 m3/s, the channel dimensions are 3.1 m wide and 2.7 m deep.

Rainfall distribution over Bangladesh stations during the monsoon months in the absence of depressions and cyclonic storms

Monsoonal rainfall plays an important role in the annual rainfall distribution over Bangladesh. It is generally believed that monsoon depressions and cyclonic storms significantly affect the rainfall distribution over Bangladesh during the monsoon months and their absence causes deficient rainfall during the individual monsoon months. This aspect has been examined by computing the average rainfall for 32 meteorological observatories of Bangladesh Meteorological Department during the period 1948.91 for those monsoon months which were free from depressions and cyclonic storms. It has been found that the absence of monsoon depressions and cyclonic storms is not the main factor which causes deficient rainfall and consequent drought conditions in the individual monsoon months over different stations of the country. All the stations in the country experienced normal rainfall conditions inspite of the absence of depressions and cyclonic storms in the monsoon season (June-September).

Analysis of weekly rainfall of different period during rainy season over Safdarjung airport of Delhi for 20th century – A study on trend, decile and decadal analysis

The analysis of weekly rainfall and of different period during rainy season of Safdarjang airport using techniques like trend and decile have been attempted. Decadal analysis is also attempted to see any changes during the entire period. Rainy season is defined as rainfall received from week no. 23rd to 38th. Weekly rainfall data for period 1901 to 2000 is utilized for this location. As week is a shorter period to analyze rainfall for the season groups of different periods consisting of 4 weeks such as 1-4 as ‘A’, 5-8 as ‘B’ and so on up to ‘D’ is formed. For study of progressive season combination of groups such as ‘A+B’, A+B+C and ‘A+B+C+D’ are also subjected to analysis as done for weekly as well for group. The average weekly rainfall distribution indicates very high positive value of coefficient of correlation (0.94) significant at 1% level. The coefficient variation (C.V.) of weekly average rainfall shows consistency from decade 5th to 8th and 10th. Profile of average C.V. of weekly rainfall for 100 years shows consistency from week 4 to 11. Week no. 8 shows peak of rainfall. Overall decile analysis of weekly rainfall shows increasing tendency from week no. 1 to 8 for all deciles and then decreasing tendency from week no. 9 on words for all decile values. Trend analysis of group ‘C’ shows significant positive tendency with correlation as +0.20 significant at 5% level. However trend analysis of deciles of all groups shows very high C.C. around +0.95 at 1% level. Trend analysis of combination of groups shows positive trend for A+B+C and for A+B+C+D with a C.C. of 0.25 and 0.20 at 5% level. Trend of deciles for these groups also shows very high C.C. values around +0.95 at 1% level. Average, excess and deficient rainfall seen at Safdarjung airport is 5th, 7th and 4th decile with values as 594, 708 and 472 mm respectively. Analysis of two halves of century, viz., 1901-50 and 1951-2000 shows no significant trend.

Rainfall diagnosis in context of cereal yields in Gujarat

The present study was undertaken to analyze annual average rainfall in Gujarat in order to classify and define the targeted zones and to know the impact of rainfall variability on agriculture in the state. The results revealed that the Northwest Agro-climatic zone was the most vulnerable zone among all the agro-climatic zones due to extreme deviations in rainfall pattern. This was followed by north Saurashtra, South saurashtra and Middle Gujarat Zone. The southern hills zone had the least per cent of years with extreme deviations. Water management practices such as drip irrigation, deepening wells, constructing check-dams; integrated watershed management as well as insurance coverage and microfinancing facilities have been suggested as mitigation strategies to overcome the adverse impact of rainfall variability on agricultural production.