Impacts of various types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENSO Modoki on the rainy season over the Huaihe River basin

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (5) ◽  
pp. 2811-2824 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing Cao ◽  
Zhenchun Hao ◽  
Junwei Zhou ◽  
Wenzhuo Wang ◽  
Feifei Yuan ◽  
...  
Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 256 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fuqiang Cao ◽  
Tao Gao ◽  
Li Dan ◽  
Lian Xie ◽  
Xiang Gong

Based on tropical cyclone (TC) track data and gridded observational rainfall data of CN05.1 during the period of 1961 to 2014, we examine the contribution of TCs on three metrics of summertime rainfall regimes and identify the connection between TC-induced precipitation events and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in middle–lower reaches of Yangtze River Basin (MLYRB). At the regional scale, TCs are responsible for approximately 14.4%, 12.5%, and 6.9% of rainfall events for normal, 75th, and 95th percentile precipitation cases, respectively. There is no evidence of significant long-term trends of the three type events linked with TCs, while their interdecadal variability is remarkable. Fractionally, larger proportions of TC-induced events occur along southeast coastal regions of MLYRB for normal rainfall events, and they are recorded over southwest and central-east MLYRB for 95th percentile cases. Moreover, a larger contribution of 95th percentile precipitation events to summer total rainfall is found than that for 75th percentile cases, suggesting that TCs may exert stronger impacts on the upper tail of summertime precipitation distribution across MLYRB. The TC-induced normal rainfall events tend to occur more frequency over central-west MLYRB during negative phase of ENSO in summer. However, the higher likelihood of TC-induced rainfall for three defined metrics are found over the majority of areas over MLYRB during negative ENSO phase in spring. In preceding winter, La Niña episode plays a crucial role in controlling the frequency of both normal and 75th percentile precipitation events.


2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (22) ◽  
pp. 4840-4861 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tracy E. Twine ◽  
Christopher J. Kucharik ◽  
Jonathan A. Foley

Abstract Climatic and hydrologic observations and results from a terrestrial ecosystem model coupled to a regional-scale river-routing algorithm are used to document the associations between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and anomalies in climate, surface water balance, and river hydrology within the Mississippi River basin. While no ENSO signal is found in streamflow at the outlet of the basin in Vicksburg, Mississippi, significant anomalies in all water balance components are found in certain regions within the basin. ENSO is mainly associated with positive winter temperature anomalies, but hydrologic patterns vary with season, location, and ENSO phase. El Niño precipitation anomalies tend to affect evapotranspiration (ET) in the western half of the basin and runoff in the eastern half. La Niña events are associated with ET anomalies in the central portion of the basin and runoff anomalies in the southern and eastern portions of the basin. Both ENSO phases are associated with decreased snow depth. Anomalous soil moisture patterns occur at seasonal time scales and filter noisier spatial patterns of precipitation anomalies into coherent patterns with larger field significance; however, for all water budget components, there is a large amount of variability in response within a particular ENSO phase. With anomalies that are up to 4 times those of a typical event, it is clear that improved predictability of the onset and strength of an upcoming ENSO event is important for both water resource management and disaster mitigation.


Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1446
Author(s):  
Guohua Fang ◽  
Xin Li ◽  
Ming Xu ◽  
Xin Wen ◽  
Xianfeng Huang

With the aggravation of the ocean–atmosphere cycle anomaly, understanding the potential teleconnections between climate indices and drought/flood conditions can help us know natural hazards more comprehensively to better cope with them. This study aims at exploring the spatiotemporal patterns of drought and its multi-scale relations with typical climate indices in the Huaihe River Basin. First, the spatial patterns were identified based on the seasonal Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)-3 during 1956–2020 by means of the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF). The two leading sub-regions of spring and winter droughts were determined. Then, we extracted the periodicity of spring and winter SPI-3 series and the corresponding seasonal climate indices (Arctic Oscillation (AO), Bivariate El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)Timeseries (BEST), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Niño3, and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)) and the sunspot number by using the Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT). We further explored the teleconnections between spring drought, winter drought, and climate indices and the sunspot number by using Cross Wavelet Transform (XWT) and Wavelet Coherence (WTC) analyses. The results show that there are in-phase multi-scale relations between spring/winter PC1 and AO, BEST, and Niño3, of which the climate indices lead spring PC1 by 1.5–2 years and the climate indices lag winter PC1 by 1.5–3 years. Anti-phase relations between spring PCs and SOI and the sunspot number were observed. NAO mainly affects the interdecadal variation in spring drought, while AO and Niño3 focus on the interannual variation. In addition, Niño3 and SOI are more related to the winter drought on interdecadal scales. Moreover, there is a positive correlation between the monthly average precipitation/temperature and Niño3 with a lag of 3 months. The results are beneficial for improving the accuracy of drought prediction, considering taking NAO, AO, and Niño3 as predictors for spring drought and Niño3 and SOI for winter drought. Hence, valuable information can be provided for the management of water resources as well as early drought warnings in the basin.


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