Revisiting the predictors for the long‐range forecasting of southwest monsoon rainfall over South Asia with a focus on Pakistan

Weather ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 74 (S1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Faisal S. Syed ◽  
Ikram Farah ◽  
Jahangir A. Awan
Keyword(s):  
South Asia ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Southwest Monsoon Rainfall

scholarly journals Recent models for long range forecasting of Southwest monsoon rainfall in India

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 239-248
Author(s):  
V. THAPLIYAL ◽  
S. M. KULSHRESTHA
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
India Meteorological Department ◽  
Scientific Work ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Times ◽  
Southwest Monsoon Rainfall

India has a long tradition of scientific work or, long range forecasting of the southwest monsoon ever since the times of Blanford and Walker In the early Parts of this century, the recent decades have witnessed increased research in regard to the development of new long range forecast models in the India Meteorological Department which have, given correct long range (seasonal) forecasts of southwest monsoon rainfall, over the country as a whole, during, the successive four year~, 1988 to 1991, Presently, four models namely, Para-metric Power Regression, Dynamic Stochastic Transfer and Improved Multiple Regression models are being used for formulating the seasonal forecast of monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole, The forecast is issued in two stages, In the first stage a tentative inference which is qualitative in nature is issued before the middle of April based mainly on the Parametric model which utilizes signals from 16 regional and global parameters that are related to land, ocean and atmospheric forcing and show physical linkages with monsoon. In the second stage, a firm quantitative forecast is issued towards the end of the May and is based on the remaining three models mentioned above, although higher weight age is given to the Power Regression Model which has shown encouraging performance during the last four years. In this paper, these recently developed models and the scientific basis underlying these are discussed, Data on validation of these Operational models, used for the long range  forecast during the past four years (1988-91) are also presented.

scholarly journals A POWER REGRESSION MODEL FOR LONG RANGE FORECAST OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINFALL OVER INDIA

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-130
Author(s):  
VASANT GOWARIKER ◽  
V. THAPLIYAL ◽  
S. M. KULSHRESTHA ◽  
G. S. MANDAL ◽  
N. SEN ROY ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Detailed Analysis ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
India Meteorological Department ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
The Past ◽  
Interactive Nature ◽  
Southwest Monsoon Rainfall

A detailed analysis of southwest monsoon (June to September) rainfall over India of several decades vis-a-vis the regional and global antecedent signals in numerous permutations and combinations has led the authors to conclude that a long range forecast based on one, two, three or four parameters as attempted by several workers in the past, cannot be reliable on all occasions as indeed has proved to be the case. The parametric and power regression models utilizing 16 parameters, described in the present paper, suggest that it is a tapestry of several parameters and interactive nature of the regional and global climatic forcings that govern the quality and quantity of the monsoon. A detailed analysis of non-linear interactions among the antecedent climatic conditions and the monsoon has led the authors to introduce the concept of proportionate weightage to the signals of different parameters. This has led to the development of a power regression model, which is able to quantify the effect of each parameter. Details of the model are presented, Based on the model, the India Meteorological Department has been issuing the operational long range forecast of monsoon rainfall over India as a whole during the past 3 years, 1988 to 1990, and these forecasts have proved to be correct.

New statistical models for long-range forecasting of southwest monsoon rainfall over India

2006 ◽  
Vol 28 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 813-828 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Rajeevan ◽  
D. S. Pai ◽  
R. Anil Kumar ◽  
B. Lal
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Southwest Monsoon Rainfall

Performance of the Operational and Experimental Long-Range Forecasts for the 2015 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall

2017 ◽  
Vol 112 (1) ◽  
pp. 68 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. S. Pai ◽  
A. Suryachandra Rao ◽  
Soma Senroy ◽  
Maheswar Pradhan ◽  
Prasanth A. Pillai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Southwest Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Range Forecasts

scholarly journals YEAST IN SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINWATER

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 4-8
Author(s):  
SHEELA PAL
Keyword(s):  
Phase Contrast ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Yeast Cells ◽  
Successful Isolation ◽  
Tentative Model ◽  
Bacteria And Fungi ◽  
Southwest Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Ascomycetous Yeasts ◽  
Extreme Care

Strong evidence of the presence of bacteria and fungi in the tropospheric boundary layer is available in the literature. We report successful isolation of unique morphotypes of wild ascomycetous yeasts from rainwater samples collected directly in sterile containers, taking extreme care to avoid ambient contamination. Direct and quick visualization of fresh rainwater samples under a phase contrast microscope indicated the sporadic presence of yeast cells. Further confirmation of the presence of yeast was obtained by plating of rainwater on a medium with antibiotics to generate pure colonies. We described their characteristics while molecular identification revealed it as Candida tropicalis. Yeast species  could contribute valuable knowledge about yeast transportation in the atmosphere. However, knowledge is insufficient about the yeast deposited from the atmosphere and its transportation across the atmosphere. We report and discuss these interesting and exciting results which are useful in understanding the microbiological dimension of meteorology and the southwest monsoon rainfall in the light of present discourse on global warming and climate change. We offer a tentative model for a possible source, role, and fate of the yeasts in rainwater.

scholarly journals Decreasing southwest monsoon rainfall over Myanmar in the prevailing global warming era

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
G. China Satyanarayana ◽  
Venkata Bhaskar Rao Dodla ◽  
Desamsetti Srinivas
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Southwest Monsoon Rainfall
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