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Vestnik NSUEM ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 94-104
D. V. Lysenko ◽  
L. Akgun

To survive in modern market conditions, as well as to participate in the ever-increasing competitive struggle, companies need to conduct their activities more effectively, which means that they constantly need to make a variety of decisions, which in turn entails the need to constantly give a real assessment of the effectiveness of the decisions and projects being implemented, competently conduct economic analysis, find reserves for this activity. This is where the relevance of the development of the basic methodological principles of economic analysis in the conditions of risk and uncertainty in an industry based on scientific basis taking into account the specific characteristics of the sector in question.The subject of this study is a set of both theoretical and practical aspects of analyzing the activities of petrochemical companies under conditions of risk and uncertainty, while the object of the study is Russian and foreign petrochemical and gas processing companies operating in the current conditions of the industry development.The purpose of this study is to formulate a methodology for analyzing the main indicators of the activities of petrochemical and gas processing companies and making decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty.The development of methodological principles is supposed to be carried out on the basis of the classical scientific and methodological base, taking into account the industry specific features of the activities of petrochemical and gas processing companies. In this paper, a study of modern methods of analyzing the effectiveness of activities is carried out, and the novelty of this work consists in combining the classical theory of economic analysis with the practical methods used today by petrochemical and gas producing companies in the process of their financial and economic activities.

2021 ◽  
Anita Verpe Dyrrdal ◽  
Hans Olav Hygen ◽  
Irene Brox Nilsen ◽  
Stephanie Mayer

<p>In the wake of the 6th assessment report from IPCC due this year, the Norwegian Centre for Climate Services (NCCS) has started a project to update their national climate assessment report Climate in Norway 2100. A major part of this update revolves around the selection of a representative model ensemble for a low, medium and high emission scenario, plus bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX output and statistical downscaling directly from CMIP6 to the national, and subnational, level. The results will form the natural scientific basis for local climate adaptation in Norway, through the computation of expected changes in selected climate indices on a 1 x 1 km grid covering the Norwegian mainland. </p><p>The new knowledge will also serve to update the much used climate fact sheets (presented at EMS 2016) for Norwegian counties. We aim to develop a map based webtool for the climate fact sheets, consisting of map layers of several climate indices. The user will be able to get tailored fact sheets for a given point or region, generated from a template that merges information from map layers and predefined texts.</p><p>The project is divided into five working groups: 1. Historical climate, 2. Modeling, 2. Future climate, 4. Infrastructure, 5. Outreach. In this presentation we will present the organization and plans for the project, as well as details on the model ensemble selection from EURO-CORDEX, based on both CMIP5 and CMIP6, and the methods for downscaling a bias-adjustment to the national level. The updated report is planned to be issued in 2024.</p>

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 1672
Xinjian Guan ◽  
Qiongying Du ◽  
Wenge Zhang ◽  
Baoyong Wang

China’s water rights transaction is still in the initial stage of development. There is no systematic pricing method for water rights transactions between farmers. This paper puts forward a pricing model of water rights transactions among farmers in water-deficient areas. The price of water rights transaction consists of cost price and earnings price. The earnings price is determined by studying the crop water production function, calculating the crop’s marginal benefit of the two parties, and combining the Cooperative Game Theory. Finally, the pricing model was applied to the water rights transactions among the farmers of Hetao Irrigation District of Bayannaoer City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Results showed that under the A4 trading strategy, the overall income increased without losing the interests of any farmer. The increasing income of the three farmer households N1, N2, and N3 after the alliance was 8.14 thousand dollars, 4.66 thousand dollars, and 20.33 thousand dollars, respectively, and the water rights transaction prices of N3 and N1, N2 were respectively 0.485 $/m³, 0.565 $/m³. It is estimated that the model can provide a scientific basis for water rights trading between farmers and the efficient use of water resources.

2021 ◽  
He-San Luo ◽  
Ying-Ying Chen ◽  
Sheng-Xi Wu ◽  
Shao-Fu Huang ◽  
Hong-Yao Xu ◽  

Abstract Purpose: To develop a nomogram model for predicting local progress-free survival (LPFS) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. Methods: We collected the clinical data of ESCC patients treated with CCRT in our hospital. Eligible patients were randomly divided into training cohort and validation cohort. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) with COX regression was performed to select optimal radiomics features calculating Rad-score for predicting LPFS in the training cohort. The univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify the predictive clinical factors for developing a nomogram model. The C-index was used to assess the performance of the predictive model and calibration curve was used to evaluate the accuracy.Results: A total of 221 ESCC patients were included in our study, with 155 patients in training cohort and 66 patients in validation cohort. After LASSO COX regression analysis, seventeen radiomics features were selected to calculate Rad-score for predicting LPFS. The patients with a Rad-score≥0.1411 had high risk of local recurrence, and those with a Rad-score<0.1411 had low risk of local recurrence. Multivariate analysis showed that N stage, CR status and Rad-score were independent predictive factors for LPFS. A nomogram model was built based on the result of multivariate analysis. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.745 (95%CI: 0.7700 -0.790) in training cohort and 0.723(95%CI:0.654-0.791) in validation cohort. The 3-year LPFS rate predicted by the nomogram model was highly consistent with the actual 3-year LPFS rate both in the training cohort and the validation cohort.Conclusion: We developed and validated a prediction model based on radiomics features and clinical factors, which can be used to predict LPFS of patients after CCRT. This model is conducive to making individualized chemoradiotherapy strategy and providing scientific basis for subsequent intensive adjuvant therapy for ESCC patients.

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 764
Aishajiang Aili ◽  
Jilili Abuduwaili ◽  
Hailiang Xu ◽  
Xinfeng Zhao ◽  
Xinghong Liu

The Aral Sea basin is the most active source of salt-dust storms in the central Asian region, while its exposed bottom is acting as a “distributer” of salts and chemicals over the adjoining areas. In this study, the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT-4) is used to identify the trajectories of air parcels from the dried bottom of the Aral Sea region (45.40° N, 61.30° E) that are potentially containing salt-dust and their probability of influencing the downwind area in the period of 2016–2020. The frequency of air parcel trajectory was mapped for six levels: 100, 300, 500, 1000, 2000, and 3000 m agl. The trajectories were categorized by k-means clustering into four clusters that are named by their direction of movement as follows: Cluster 1: E category, Cluster 2: NE category, Cluster 3: W category, and the Cluster 4: S category. The 72 h of forward trajectories showed that salt-dust storms starting from the dried bottom of the Aral Sea had the highest probability of affecting the northeastern region e.g., Siberian Plain, followed by the southern region e.g., Iran Plateau. Total number of trajectories within these two clusters (NE and S) accounts for 90% (or 413 days) of trajectories in examined days. The main area of influence of salt-dust is close to the source area. The potential transport distance of salt-dust particles increases with the height of the starting point. The surface wind, which results from the changes of the Siberian High (SH), has a major role in shaping the surface atmospheric circulation which determines the transport pathway of salt-dust particles over the Aral Sea region. The results of this study could be useful to forecast the potential occurrence of salt-dust storms in downwind affected areas and would also be helpful to understand the possible causes of salt-dust storms which can provide the scientific basis for mitigation of the negative impact of salt-dust storms on the environment and human health. Further research should be conducted by using monitoring data to confirm the deposition of dust and salt particles in those areas mapped by our study.

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Yongfeng Zhou ◽  
Ming Niu ◽  
Dingkun Zhang ◽  
Zhenxing Liu ◽  
Qinghua Wu ◽  

Influenza is a common respiratory infectious disease. In China, Lianhua Qingwen capsule (LHQWC), a drug with significant clinical efficacy and few side effects, is commonly used to treat influenza. However, the composition of LHQWC is complicated, and currently used quality control methods cannot ensure its consistency. In this study, combined with its clinical efficacy, the targets of LHQWC were screened using network pharmacology. Then, anti-inflammation quality markers of LHQWC were screened and judged by combined chemical with biological evaluation. Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) was identified as one of the main targets of the anti-inflammatory activity of LHQWC. The rate of inhibition of COX-2 by different batches of LHQWC was determined. Furthermore, seven components of LHQWC were identified. The potential quality markers were screened by spectral-effect relationship. As a result, chlorogenic acid, isochlorogenic acid B, and isochlorogenic acid C were identified and confirmed as anti-inflammatory quality markers of LHQWC. We hope that these findings provide a scientific basis for the accurate quality control of LHQWC and serve as a reference for the quality control of other drugs.

Molecules ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (12) ◽  
pp. 3563
Runjing Wang ◽  
Yinyu Wei ◽  
Meiqin Wang ◽  
Pan Yan ◽  
Hongliang Jiang ◽  

Nucleocapsid proteins (NCp) are zinc finger (ZF) proteins, and they play a central role in HIV virus replication, mainly by interacting with nucleic acids. Therefore, they are potential targets for anti-HIV therapy. Natural products have been shown to be able to inhibit HIV, such as turmeric and licorice, which is widely used in traditional Chinese medicine. Liquiritin (LQ), isoliquiritin (ILQ), glycyrrhizic acid (GL), glycyrrhetinic acid (GA) and curcumin (CUR), which were the major active components, were herein chosen to study their interactions with HIV-NCp7 C-terminal zinc finger, aiming to find the potential active compounds and reveal the mechanism involved. The stacking interaction between NCp7 tryptophan and natural compounds was evaluated by fluorescence. To elucidate the binding mode, mass spectrometry was used to characterize the reaction mixture between zinc finger proteins and active compounds. Subsequently, circular dichroism (CD) spectroscopy and molecular docking were used to validate and reveal the binding mode from a structural perspective. The results showed that ILQ has the strongest binding ability among the tested compounds, followed by curcumin, and the interaction between ILQ and the NCp7 zinc finger peptide was mediated by a noncovalent interaction. This study provided a scientific basis for the antiviral activity of turmeric and licorice.

Mariana Tolentino Chaves ◽  
Ana Paula Tolentino Chaves

Introduction: In the scenario of chronic non-communicable diseases, obesity stands out as a multifactorial disease that can cause several public health problems. Currently, about 30% of the world's population is overweight or obese. Estimates suggest that the prevalence of severe obesity in 2030 will be 11%, approximately twice the current prevalence. By 2025, Brazil will be in fifth place in the world ranking, with an estimated 18.0 million people. The appearance of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), which causes the disease COVID-19, has worsened the comorbidities of obesity. Objective: to explore, through a concise systematic review, the main metabolic and immunological relationships in obesity, especially in the presence of COVID-19. Methods: The present study followed a concise systematic review model (PRISMA). The search strategy was carried out in the databases PubMed, Embase, Ovid and Cochrane Library, Web Of Science, and Scopus. The quality of the studies was based on the GRADE instrument and the risk of bias was analyzed according to the Cochrane instrument. Results: A total of 76 studies were found that were submitted to the eligibility analysis, and, after that, 15 studies of high to medium quality and with risks of bias were selected that do not compromise the scientific basis of the studies, we found that obesity is an important predictor of worsening SARS-CoV-2 pathology. There are a complex interaction between multiple metabolic, immunological and inflammatory factors that result in meta-inflammation. It has been shown that obesity causes dysfunction in the immune system, increasing susceptibility to infections and death from sepsis, and increased oxidative stress in the body. SARS-CoV-2 amplifies the inflammatory response, enabling greater propensity to alveolar thrombotic microangiopathy and pulmonary thromboembolism. Meta-inflammation and insulin resistance with hyperinsulinemia is the main baseline changes in obesity. Conclusion: In the COVID-19 scenario, obesity is an important predictor of the worsening of SARS-CoV-2 pathology, mainly due to the worsening of metainflammation.

2021 ◽  
Zheyu Zhang ◽  
Hongli Li ◽  
Shan Hui ◽  
Min Yi ◽  
Xin Chen ◽  

Abstract Background: Curcumin, a polyphenol derived from the herb turmeric, has emerged as a promising potential therapy in the management of Alzheimer’s disease (AD). However, the efficacy and potential therapeutic mechanisms remains largely unknown. Objective: To systematically meta-analysis the effect and to investigate the potential pharmacological mechanisms of curcumin on cognitive deficits in AD. Methods: A systematic collection of curcumin studies was performed from MEDLINE’s database, PubMed, Web of Science, and Google Scholar until October 31th, 2020. Following quality assessment of study eligibility, stratified meta-analysis and meta-regression analyses were undertaken to recognize and control the heterogeneity in meta-analysis. An integrated network pharmacology and molecular docking approach were applied to decipher the potential pharmacological mechanisms of curcumin on AD. Results: A meta-analysis of 29 publications showed that curcumin exerts significantly positive effects on cognitive performance. For acquisition, the global estimated effect of curcumin was -2.027 (95% CI: -2.435 to -1.619, p<0.001); For retention, the global estimated effect of curcumin was 1.606 (95% CI: 1.101 to 2.111, p<0.001). Stratified meta-analysis demonstrated that an increased effect size depended on various study characteristics. Network pharmacology analysis identified 63 genes targets, and STAT3, CHEK1, AKT1, EGFR, MMP9, hsp90AA1, and EP300 were core target proteins. Molecular docking showed that curcumin can closely bind with these seven targets. Besides, 69 potential pathways of curcumin were identified, like nitrogen metabolism.Conclusions: Our findings suggested that curcumin may reduce cognitive deficits in AD through multi-target and multi-pathway mechanism, providing a scientific basis for further experimental and clinical application.

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 271-285
Vyacheslav Bobkov ◽  
Olesya Veredyuk

This paper aims to analyze and summarize the realities of academic discourse on fundamental transformations in the sphere of labour relations related to the development of non-standard employment. The digests of the presentations that the authors received from the speakers of the international academic pаnel «Employment and Labour Market: Contours of De-standardisation» held in the framework of the V St. Petersburg International Labour Forum in April 2021 established the scientific basis of the paper. The authors focus on the transformation of labour relations associated with their de-standardization, i.e. departure from the model with a permanent full-time employe-eemployer relationship that provides a range of social rights and guarantees. The authors review and critically analyze the evolving discourse on the current and prospective international academic issues of debates on the topic of de-standardization of labour relations. The main results of the paper are the following, firstly, an overview of the materials of the academic panel on the labour de-standardization problem; secondly, the proposed outlines of a comprehensive approach to solving the problem, primarily in terms of decent work and employment for all, taking into account international experience and country-specific features of economies; and thirdly, recommendations for further discussions towards exploring the opportunities and threats facing work and employment resulting from the Industrial Revolution 4.0 in the context of global capitalism and finding alternative ways of resolving the accumulated contradictions

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