Sea level change and salt marshes in the Wadden Sea: A time series analysis

2007 ◽  
pp. 601-614 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. S. Dijkema ◽  
W. E. Van Duin ◽  
H. W. G. Meesters ◽  
A. F. Zuur ◽  
E. N. Ieno ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Salt Marshes ◽  
Wadden Sea ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Series Analysis

scholarly journals Association of flavoured cigar regulations with wholesale tobacco volumes in Canada: an interrupted time series analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 457-461 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael O Chaiton ◽  
Robert Schwartz ◽  
Gabrielle Tremblay ◽  
Robert Nugent
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Tobacco Sales ◽  
Health Canada ◽  
Over Time

IntroductionThis study examines the association of Federal Canadian regulations passed in 2009 addressing flavours (excluding menthol) in small cigars with changes in cigar sales.MethodsQuarterly wholesale unit data as reported to Health Canada from 2001 through 2016 were analysed using interrupted time series analysis. Changes in sales of cigars with and without flavour descriptors were estimated. Analyses were seasonally adjusted. Changes in the flavour types were assessed over time.ResultsThe Federal flavour regulations were associated with a reduction in the sales of flavoured cigars by 59 million units (95% CI −86.0 to −32.4). Increases in sales of cigars with descriptors other than flavours (eg, colour or other ambiguous terms) were observed (9.6 million increase (95% CI −1.3 to 20.5), but the overall level (decline of 49.6 million units (95% CI −73.5 to −25.8) and trend of sales of cigars (6.9 million units per quarter (95% CI −8.1 to −5.7)) declined following the ban. Sensitivity analysis showed that there was no substantial difference in effect over time comparing Ontario and British Columbia, suggesting that other provincial tobacco control legislation was not associated with the changes in levels. Analyses suggested that the level change was sensitive to the specification of the date.ConclusionThis study demonstrates that flavour regulations have the potential to substantially impact tobacco sales. However, exemptions for certain flavours and product types may have reduced the effectiveness of the ban, indicating the need for comprehensive, well-designed regulations.

scholarly journals Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea

2018 ◽  
Vol 97 (3) ◽  
pp. 79-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bert L.A. Vermeersen ◽  
Aimée B.A. Slangen ◽  
Theo Gerkema ◽  
Fedor Baart ◽  
Kim M. Cohen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Wadden Sea ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Level Change

AbstractRising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region.Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl.We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: the RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5.For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07±0.06m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018–30 (uncertainties representing 5–95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6mma−1for the 5th percentile of the RCP2.6 scenario to 9.1mma−1for the 95th percentile of the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period 2018–50, the differences between the scenarios increase, with projected changes of 0.16±0.12m for RCP2.6, 0.19±0.11m for RCP4.5 and 0.23±0.12m for RCP8.5. The accompanying rates of change range between 2.3 and 12.4mma−1in 2050. The differences between the scenarios amplify for the 2018–2100 period, with projected total changes of 0.41±0.25m for RCP2.6, 0.52±0.27m for RCP4.5 and 0.76±0.36m for RCP8.5. The projections for the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than the high-end projections presented in the 2008 Delta Commission Report (0.74m for 1990–2100) when the differences in time period are considered. The sea-level change rates range from 2.2 to 18.3mma−1for the year 2100.We also assess the effect of accelerated ice mass loss on the sea-level projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, as recent literature suggests that there may be a larger contribution from Antarctica than presented in IPCC AR5 (potentially exceeding 1m in 2100). Changes in episodic extreme events, such as storm surges, and periodic (tidal) contributions on (sub-)daily timescales, have not been included in these sea-level projections. However, the potential impacts of these processes on sea-level change rates have been assessed in the report.

Time-series analysis of tides and similar motions of the sea surface

1967 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. E. Cartwright
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Survey Article ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Exciting Forces ◽  
Linear Effects

This survey article, most of whose results are described in greater detail in Munk and Cartwright (1966), which will hereafter be abbreviated to MC, describes methods which aim to separate the response of the sea level at a given place due to various exciting forces such as gravity, solar radiation, non-linear effects, and weather. In so doing, it provides predictors for sea level which are formally simpler and somewhat more accurate than those given by the classical methods.

Global sea-level and ocean-mass budgets using advanced data products and uncertainty characterisation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Horwath ◽  
Anny Cazenave ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Mass Change ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Ocean Mass ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
Global Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean

<p>Studies of the global sea-level budget (SLB) and ocean-mass budget (OMB) are essential to assess the reliability of our knowledge of sea-level change and its contributors. The SLB is considered closed if the observed sea-level change agrees with the sum of independently assessed steric and mass contributions. The OMB is considered closed if the observed ocean-mass change is compatible with the sum of assessed mass contributions. </p><p>Here we present results from the Sea-Level Budget Closure (SLBC_cci) project conducted in the framework of ESA’s Climate Change Initiative (CCI). We used data products from CCI projects as well as newly-developed products based on CCI products and on additional data sources. Our focus on products developed in the same framework allowed us to exercise a consistent uncertainty characterisation and its propagation to the budget closure analyses, where the SLB and the OMB are assessed simultaneously. </p><p>We present time series of global mean sea-level changes from satellite altimetry; new time series of the global mean steric component generated from Argo drifter data with incorporation of sea surface temperature data; time series of ocean-mass change derived from GRACE satellite gravimetry; time series of global glacier mass change from a global glacier model; time series of mass changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Antarctic Ice Sheet both from satellite radar altimetry and from GRACE; as well as time series of land water storage change from the WaterGAP global hydrological model. Our budget analyses address the periods 1993–2016 (covered by the satellite altimetry records) and 2003–2016 (covered by GRACE and the Argo drifter system). In terms of the mean rates of change (linear trends), the SLB is closed within uncertainties for both periods, and the OMB, assessable for 2003–2016 only, is also closed within uncertainties. Uncertainties (1-sigma) arising from the combined uncertainties of the elements of the different budgets considered are between 0.26 mm/yr and 0.40 mm/yr, that is, on the order of 10% of the magnitude of global mean sea-level rise, which is 3.05 ± 0.24 mm/yr and 3.65 ± 0.26 mm/yr for 1993-2016 and 2003-2016, respectively. We also assessed the budgets on a monthly time series basis. The statistics of monthly misclosure agrees with the combined uncertainties of the budget elements, which amount to typically 2-3 mm for the 2003–2016 period. We discuss possible origins of the residual misclosure.</p>

Coastal Sea Level Change from in the North Eastern Atlantic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luciana Fenoglio-Marc ◽  
Bernd Uebbing ◽  
Jürgen Kusche ◽  
Salvatore Dinardo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Altimeter Data ◽  
Level Change ◽  
The North ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
Coastal Sea

<p>A significant part of the World population lives in the coastal zone, which is affected by coastal sea level rise and extreme events. Our hypothesis is that the most accurate sea level height measurements are derived from the Synthetic Aperture Altimetry (SAR) mode. This study analyses the output of dedicated processing and assesses their impacts on the sea level change of the North-Eastern Atlantic. </p><p>It will be shown that SAR altimetry reduces the minimum usable distance from five to three kilometres when the dedicated coastal retrackers SAMOSA+ and SAMOSA++ are applied to data processed in SAR mode. A similar performance is achieved with altimeter data processed in pseudo low resolution mode (PLRM) when the Spatio-Temporal Altimeter sub-waveform Retracker (STAR) is used. Instead the Adaptive Leading Edge Sub-waveform retracker (TALES) applied to PLRM is less performant. SAR processed altimetry can recover the sea level heights with 4 cm accuracy up to 3-4 km distance to coast. Thanks to the low noise of SAR mode data, the instantaneous SAR and in-situ data have the highest agreement, with the smallest standard deviation of differences and the highest correlation. A co-location of the altimeter data near the tide gauge is the best choice for merging in-situ and altimeter data. The r.m.s. (root mean squared) differences between altimetry and in-situ heights remain large in estuaries and in coastal zone with high tidal regimes, which are still challenging regions. The geophysical parameters derived from CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3A measurements have similar accuracy, but the different repeat cycle of the two missions locally affects the constructed time-series.</p><p>The impact of these new SAR observations in climate change studies is assessed by evaluating regional and local time series of sea level. At distances to coast smaller than 10 Kilometers the sea level change derived from SAR and LRM data is in good agreement. The long-term sea level variability derived from monthly time-series of LRM altimetry and of land motion-corrected tide gauges agrees within 1 mm/yr for half of in-situ German stations. The long-term sea level variability derived from SAR data show a similar behaviour with increasing length of the time series.</p><p> </p>

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