Integrated Risk Index System

1985 ◽  
pp. 67-85
Author(s):  
G. R. Rosenblum ◽  
W. S. Effron ◽  
J. L. Siva ◽  
G. R. Mancini ◽  
R. N. Roth
Keyword(s):  
Index System ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Integrated Risk

Research on Surveillance Risk Index System of Unified and Interconnected Electricity Market in China

2014 ◽  
Vol 1070-1072 ◽  
pp. 1516-1523
Author(s):  
Chun Cheng Gao ◽  
Shu Hong Shi
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Market ◽  
Index System ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
First Grade ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Electricity Trading ◽  
Operating Region ◽  
Market State ◽  
Grid Operation ◽  
And Control

After the establishment of the unified and interconnected electricity market in China, electricity trading range will cover the entire State Grid operating region, and headquarters market and provincial market will become interconnected, unified and coordinated operation. Aiming at the surveillance risk under the unified and interconnected electricity market, a relatively complete surveillance risk index system is proposed. The proposed risk index system includes six first grade indices, i.e., market state, transaction plan, contract and settlement, market coordination, energy efficiency and power grid operation. The risk index system can reasonably and overall reflect the risk level of the electric power transaction under the unified and interconnected electricity market circumstances. It is useful for State Grid to achieve risk management and control of electricity trading surveillance, rectify the irregularities, and maintain a fair and impartial market order.

Identification of Key Factors of Fire Risk of Oil Depot Based on Fuzzy Clustering Algorithm

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuyi Xie ◽  
Shaohua Dong ◽  
Guangyu Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Fuzzy Clustering ◽  
Index System ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Fuzzy Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Fuzzy C Means Algorithm ◽  
Fire Risk Index

Abstract With the rapid development of the national economy, the demand for oil is increasing. In order to meet the increasing energy demand, China has established a number of oil depot in recent years, whose largest capacity reaching up to tens of millions of cubic meters. Due to the flammable and explosive nature of the stored medium, the risk of fire in the oil depot area has increased dramatically as the tank capacity of the storage tank area has increased. The intensification of the oil depot and the development of large-scale oil storage tanks have brought convenience to the national oil depot, but also brought many catastrophic consequences. In recent years, there have been many fires and explosions in the oil depot, causing major casualties and property losses, which seriously endangered the ecological environment and public safety. Based on the constructed oil depot fire risk index system, the fuzzy C-means algorithm (FCM) and fuzzy maximum support tree clustering algorithm is introduced. Through the two fuzzy clustering mathematical models, key factors in the established index system are identified. Firstly, the expert scoring method is used to evaluate the indicators in the oil depot fire risk index system, and the importance degree evaluation matrix of oil depot fire risk factors is constructed through the fuzzy analysis of expert comments. Then, the fuzzy C-means algorithm (FCM) and the fuzzy clustering tree algorithm are used to cluster the various risk indicators, and the key factors of the oil depot fire risk are identified. Through the comparative analysis and cross-validation of the results of the two fuzzy clustering methods, the accuracy of the recognition results is ensured. Finally, using an oil depot as a case study, it is found that passive fire prevention capability and emergency rescue capability are key factors that need to be paid attention to in the oil depot fire risk index. The fuzzy clustering algorithm used in this paper can digitize the subjective comments of experts, thus reducing the influence of human subjective factors. In addition, by using two fuzzy clustering algorithms to analyze and verify the key factors of the oil depot fire risk, the reliability of the clustering results is guaranteed. The identification of key factors can enable managers to predict high-risk factors in advance in the fire risk prevention and control process of the oil depot, so as to adopt corresponding preventive measures to minimize the fire risk in the oil depot, and ensure the safety of the operation of the oil depot.

scholarly journals Urban Distribution Network Operation Risk Index System and Calculation Method

2019 ◽  
Vol 1346 ◽  
pp. 012017
Author(s):  
PEI Chao ◽  
Wang Dalei ◽  
Wang Xiaofeng ◽  
RAN Mengbing ◽  
Wang Man
Keyword(s):  
Calculation Method ◽  
Index System ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Distribution Network ◽  
Network Operation ◽  
Urban Distribution ◽  
Operation Risk

scholarly journals An integrated risk index accounting for epistemic uncertainty in probability risk assessment

2020 ◽  
pp. 1748006X2096895
Author(s):  
Zhiguo Zeng ◽  
Tasneem Bani-Mustafa ◽  
Roger Flage ◽  
Enrico Zio
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Maturity Model ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Building Process ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, we present an integrated framework for quantifying epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment. Three types of epistemic uncertainty, that is, completeness, structural and parametric uncertainties, are considered. A maturity model is developed to evaluate the management of these epistemic uncertainties in the model building process. The impact of epistemic uncertainty on the result of the risk assessment is, then, estimated based on the developed maturity model. Then, an integrated risk index is defined to reflect the epistemic uncertainty in the risk assessment results. An indifference method is developed to evaluate the index based on the maturity of epistemic uncertainty management. A case study concerning a nuclear power plant is shown to demonstrate the applicability of the overall modelling framework.

scholarly journals Agricultural Drought Risk Evaluation Based on an Optimized Comprehensive Index System

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 3465 ◽  
Author(s):  
Menghua Deng ◽  
Junfei Chen ◽  
Jing Huang ◽  
Wenjuan Niu
Keyword(s):  
Index System ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Precipitation Anomaly ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
State Response ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Moderate Drought ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk ◽  
Pressure State

In this study, a new optimized comprehensive drought index system (OCDIS) was developed based on pressure-state-response (PSR) and random forest (RF). Then the pressure, state, response, and integrated agricultural drought risk were evaluated according to the synthetic-weight variable fuzzy set (SW-VFS) model. Finally, the countermeasures in terms of pressure, state, and response were discussed. The proposed index has been implemented in Qujing, Yunnan Province, China. The results showed that of the 10 indices included in the OCDIS, the four most important indices for agricultural drought risk management are reservoir storage capacity, precipitation anomaly percentage, soil moisture, and per capita annual income. The pressure risk and response risk of Malong are relatively higher than other counties. The integrated results indicated that most counties of Quijng have moderate drought risk. The assessment results are consistent with the actual situation of Qujing. The proposed model provides a scientific and objective way to develop the risk index system of agricultural drought. This study can potentially assist government agencies with information on the most important drought impacts and provide the basis for science-informed decision-making.

Regional Risks Assessment

2011 ◽  
pp. 65-90
Author(s):  
František Božek ◽  
Josef Navrátil ◽  
Jirí Dvorák ◽  
Miloš Božek
Keyword(s):  
Risk Index ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Index Method ◽  
Subsequent Transformation ◽  
State Administration ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Risks Assessment ◽  
Index Value

The index method, which enables a complex assessment of regional risks, is described. The method is based on the comparison of critical indicators with the acquired data on basic levels of every assessed sphere and their subsequent transformation into non-dimensional integrated indexes. The integrated risk index value of (i+1)-area of given sphere may be calculated as a weighted average of individual risk indexes of i-area. The Saaty´s method has been chosen for determining the weights of risk indexes. The proposed method enables the comparison of otherwise non-comparable risk spheres. The applicability of the method in practice has been verified by the assessment of environmental and technological risks in a selected region. The aim of the method is to provide state administration and self-administration bodies with a tool which may help them in their effort to prevent the probability of activation of threats, reduce the consequences of undesirable events, increase the effectiveness of reconstruction and set priorities in the risk assessment process.

AIRPORT ALoSP AND INTEGRATED RISK APPROACH FOR SSPs

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 21-43
Author(s):  
Daniel Cunha ◽  
Michelle Andrade ◽  
Javã Silva
Keyword(s):  
Risk Index ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Total Risk ◽  
High Concentration ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Risk Approach ◽  
Risk Recurrence ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Do So

This work proposed the development of a methodology for risk management in airports for ICAO’s State Safety Programmes (SSP). To do so we investigated the nature of the airport safety events occurred in busiest Brazilian airports and proposed a risk index capable to provide the Acceptable Level of Safety Performance (ALoSP) ICAO demands to their signatory States. The approach allowed us to rank airports per their risk in relation to the ALoSP calculated and proposed State optimized regulatory actions to where the risk is. Research found the high concentration on risk recurrence among 31 airports. Only 4 concentrated 30% of all the recurrence of risk, 8 were responsible for 50% and 17 represented approximately 80% of the total risk load in Brazilian airport operations. Five groups of airports are proposed as per their safety performance (Safety+2, Safety+1, Neutral, Safety-1 and Safety-2). Their measured performance showed statistically significant differences. Safety+1 group presented a safety performance 1.49 times better than ALoSP and 3.52 times better than worst group of airports (Safety-2). The Safety+2 group is 3.76 times safer than ALoSP and 8.88 times safer than Safety-2 group. Safety-1 group presented a risk level 1.51 times higher than ALoSP and Safety-2 performed 2.35 times riskier than the ALoSP. This matrix way of problem solving brings more effectiveness and rationality to the SSP’s, amplifying their effectiveness.

The major risk index system

1990 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 176-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven A. Lapp
Keyword(s):  
Index System ◽  
Risk Index
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