Using Twitter Hashtags to Gauge Real-Time Changes in Public Opinion: An Examination of the 2016 US Presidential Election

2018 ◽  
pp. 168-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah W. Lee
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Time Changes

Understanding the 2016 US Presidential Polls: The Importance of Hidden Trump Supporters

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter K. Enns ◽  
Julius Lagodny ◽  
Jonathon P. Schuldt
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Response Bias ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
American Association ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Public Opinion Research ◽  
Us Presidential Election

AbstractFollowing Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the 2016 US presidential election, the American Association for Public Opinion Research announced that “the polls clearly got it wrong” and noted that talk of a “crisis in polling” was already emerging. Although the national polls ended up being accurate, surveys just weeks before the election substantially over-stated Clinton’s lead and state polls showed systematic bias in favor of Clinton. Different explanations have been offered for these results, including non-response bias and late deciders. We argue, however, that these explanations cannot fully account for Trump’s underperformance in October surveys. Utilizing data from two national polls that we conducted in October of 2016 (

scholarly journals Pollster problems in the 2016 US presidential election: vote intention, vote prediction

2020 ◽  
Vol 83 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-28
Author(s):  
Natalie Jackson ◽  
Michael S. Lewis-Beck ◽  
Charles Tien
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
State Level ◽  
Horse Race ◽  
Present Evidence ◽  
Probability Sampling ◽  
Election Forecasting ◽  
Vote Intention ◽  
Us Presidential Election

In recent US presidential elections, there has been considerable focus on how well public opinion can forecast the outcome, and 2016 proved no exception. Pollsters and poll aggregators regularly offered numbers on the horse-race, usually pointing to a Clinton victory, which failed to occur. We argue that these polling assessments of support were misleading for at least two reasons. First, Trump voters were sorely underestimated, especially at the state level of polling. Second, and more broadly, we suggest that excessive reliance on non-probability sampling was at work. Here we present evidence to support our contention, ending with a plea for consideration of other methods of election forecasting that are not based on vote intention polls.

Identity propaganda: Racial narratives and disinformation

2021 ◽  
pp. 146144482110292
Author(s):  
Madhavi Reddi ◽  
Rachel Kuo ◽  
Daniel Kreiss
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Power Relations ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Power Structures ◽  
Marginalized Groups ◽  
Identity Based ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Social Orders ◽  
Racial Narratives

This article develops the concept of “identity propaganda,” or narratives that strategically target and exploit identity-based differences in accord with pre-existing power structures to maintain hegemonic social orders. In proposing and developing the concept of identity propaganda, we especially aim to help researchers find new insights into their data on misinformation, disinformation, and propaganda by outlining a framework for unpacking layers of historical power relations embedded in the content they analyze. We focus on three forms of identity propaganda: othering narratives that alienate and marginalize non-white or non-dominant groups; essentializing narratives that create generalizing tropes of marginalized groups; and authenticating narratives that call upon people to prove or undermine their claims to be part of certain groups. We demonstrate the utility of this framework through our analysis of identity propaganda around Vice President Kamala Harris during the 2020 US presidential election.

scholarly journals Strengthening the EU’s resilience to hybrid threats

European View ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 178168582110046
Author(s):  
Sandra Kalniete ◽  
Tomass Pildegovičs
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Hybrid Methods ◽  
Cyber Attacks ◽  
Political Will ◽  
Member States ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Hybrid Threats

Against the backdrop of the deterioration of EU–Russia relations in recent years, there has been a shift in the awareness of hybrid threats all across the Union. At the same time, there is evidence of a growing political will to strengthen resilience to these threats. While hostile foreign actors have long deployed hybrid methods to target Europe, Russia’s intervention in Ukraine in 2014, interference in the 2016 US presidential election, and repeated cyber-attacks and disinformation campaigns aimed at EU member states have marked a turning point, exposing Western countries’ unpreparedness and vulnerability to these threats. This article analyses the EU’s resilience to hybrid warfare from institutional, regulatory and societal perspectives, with a particular focus on the information space. By drawing on case studies from member states historically at the forefront of resisting and countering Russian-backed disinformation campaigns, this article outlines the case for a whole-of-society approach to countering hybrid threats and underscores the need for EU leadership in a standard-setting capacity.

Obama's Reelection Prospects under “Bread and Peace” Voting in the 2012 US Presidential Election

2012 ◽  
Vol 45 (04) ◽  
pp. 635-639 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas A. Hibbs
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Objectively Measured ◽  
Foreign Wars

According to the Bread and Peace Model postwar, American presidential elections should be interpreted as a sequence of referendums on the incumbent party's record during its four-year mandate period. In fact postwar aggregate votes for president are well explained by just two objectively measured fundamental determinants: (1) weighted-average growth of per capita real disposable personal income over the term, and (2) cumulative US military fatalities due to unprovoked, hostile deployments of American armed forces in foreign wars. No other outside variable systematically affects postwar aggregate votes for president.

scholarly journals State-Level Forecasts for the 2020 US Presidential Election: Tough Victory Ahead for Biden — Corrigendum

2021 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 193-193
Author(s):  
Bruno Jérôme ◽  
Véronique Jérôme ◽  
Philippe Mongrain ◽  
Richard Nadeau
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
State Level ◽  
Us Presidential Election

scholarly journals A Review of Mormon Studies in China

Religions ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 375
Author(s):  
Hongmeng Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
National Level ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Journal Articles ◽  
Internal Factors ◽  
History Of ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Chinese Scholars ◽  
Mitt Romney ◽  
High Level

Mormon studies in China began in the early 1990s and can be divided into three phases between the years of 2004 and 2017. The first Master’s and Doctoral theses on Mormonism were both published in 2004, and journal articles have also been increasing in frequency since then. The year of 2012 saw a peak, partly because Mormon Mitt Romney won the Republican nomination for the 2012 US presidential election. In 2017, a national-level project, Mormonism and its Bearings on Current Sino-US Relations, funded by the Chinese government, was launched. However, Mormon studies in China is thus far still in its infancy, with few institutions and a small number of scholars. Academic works are limited in number, and high-level achievements are very few. Among the published works, the study of the external factors of Mormonism is far more prevalent than research on its internal factors. Historical, sociological, and political approaches far exceed those of philosophy, theology, and history of thoughts. To Mormon studies, Chinese scholars can and should be making unique contributions, but the potential remains to be tapped.

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