Responses to digital disinformation as part of hybrid threats: a systematic review on the effects of disinformation and the effectiveness of fact-checking/debunking

The dissemination of purposely deceitful or misleading content to target audiences for political aims or economic purposes constitutes a threat to democratic societies and institutions, and is being increasingly recognized as a major security threat, particularly after evidence and allegations of hostile foreign interference in several countries surfaced in the last five years. Disinformation can also be part of hybrid threat activities. This research paper examines findings on the effects of disinformation and addresses the question of how effective counterstrategies against digital disinformation are, with the aim of assessing the impact of responses such as the exposure and disproval of disinformation content and conspiracy theories. The paper’s objective is to synthetize the main scientific findings on disinformation effects and on the effectiveness of debunking, inoculation, and forewarning strategies against digital disinformation. A mixed methodology is used, combining qualitative interpretive analysis and structured technique for evaluating scientific literature such as a systematic literature review (SLR), following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) framework.

Evolution of Approaches to Countering Hybrid Threats in the European Union’s Strategic Planning

This article aims to identify the main components of the EU approach to countering hybrid threats. To achieve this goal, research questions were posed: 1) How does the theory of hybrid warfare define hybrid threats, what are its strengths and weaknesses? 2) How is the approach to combating hybrid threats regulated in the EU? 3) What changes are taking place in this approach under the influence of trends in recent years, including the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic? The author concludes that the “open architecture” of the hybrid war theory, the wide possibilities of interpreting the definition of hybrid threats allow us to improve practical measures and theoretical approaches to security problems. However, as economic competition and political contradictions under geopolitical rivalry deepen, the approach to countering hybrid threats is hyper politicized, being used to justify sanctions pressure, strengthening military blocs or massive psychological campaigns against a political adversary. The EU tries to develop and improve a systemic approach to ensuring security in the context of the growth of hybrid threats. However, this approach is increasingly deformed under the influence of above-mentioned hyperpoliticization. This is especially evident in the EU’s attitude towards Russia and China, which are constantly accused of creating hybrid threats. The excessive use of the rhetoric of the hybrid war theory in the EU discourse jeopardizes the security of Europe.

COMPREHENSIVE INTEGRATION OF POWER INSTRUMENTS AND CIVIL-MILITARY CAPABILITIES FOR COUNTERING HYBRID THREATS

Given the future military confrontations characterized by an increased degree of complexity, multidimensionality and ambiguity, the article aims to raise awareness of the need, and also to develop effective mechanisms for a comprehensive and integrated approach to capabilities and effects of the actions of all power instruments, military and civilian, governmental and non-governmental, national and international, in countering the consequences of hybrid threats.

INTENSITY OF HYBRID THREATS TO NATIONAL ECONOMIES

Background. In the context of growing tendencies to hybridize interstate conflicts, hybrid threats become especially important, which, in contrast to direct military threats, are difficult to identify and have their own logic of emergence and escalation. The hidden nature of hybrid aggression and the focus on the most vulnerable parties necessitate a proactive response of the object state based on a thorough assessment of the potential impact of hybrid confrontation on the development of the national economy. The aim of the article isto substantiate the criteria for the intensity of the impact of hybrid threats on the national economy in order to further assess the risks of threats to the state-object of hybrid aggression. Materials and methods. Methods of analysis and synthesis are used to determine the relationship of basic concepts of risk in the context of the study of socio-economic processes; method of mathematical modeling – to formalize the criterion of the intensity of the destructive impact of hybrid threats on the national economy; method of graphical modeling – to visualize the dynamics of escalation of the destructive effects of hybrid threats. The research was performed on the basisof scientific publications, materials of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and European analytical services. Results. It is substantiated that the transformation of modern interstate conflicts takes place in the direction of their acquisition of signs of hybridization, provided that it is understood as a process of using various means of pressure, mostly of a non-military nature. It is proved that the high destructive potential of hybrid threats requires the definition of criteria for the intensity of their impact on the national economy in order to further assess the risks of threats to the state-object of hybrid aggression. The author's interpretation of the relationship between the basic concepts of risk in the context of the study of socio-economic processes, which are arranged by the level of escalation in the following order: potential danger, potential threat, real threat, risk situation, real danger. Based on the definition of the specifics of hybrid threats, their key characteristics are systematized and the destructive impact on the national economy is structured. It is substantiated that the generalizing characteristics of the destructive impact of hybrid threats on the national economy should be recognized as the level of its intensity, which is determined by the probability of the threat realization and potential losses. It is proved that the escalation of hybrid threats to economically weak and vulnerable states to the level of real danger is almost inevitable if their interests conflict with the ambitions of leading geopolitical actors. Conclusion. Interval assessment of the criteria for the intensity of hybrid threats allows structuring their destructive impact on the national economy from the minimum (potential danger) to the maximum (real danger) level of escalation. The structuring of the destructive impact of hybrid threats creates a basis for assessing the risks of threats to the state-object of hybrid aggression depending on the level of their intensity and overcoming the negative consequences for the economy of the state-object of hybrid aggression.

MULTIPLICATIVE EFFECTS OF HYBRID THREATS*

The purpose of this article is to develop methodological approaches to assess the likelihood of multiplicative effects of hybrid threat combinations based on their systematization according to the key areas of hybrid confrontation. Methodology. Methods of analysis and synthesis are used to identify the key areas of hybrid confrontation; methods of abstraction and generalization - to justify the multiplicative effects of implementing combinations of hybrid threats; method of mathematical modeling – to formalize the criterion of effectiveness of various hybrid aggression tools. The research is based on scientific publications, materials of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and European analytical services. Results of the study. It has been proved that the transformation of modern interstate conflicts takes place in the direction of acquiring by them signs of hybridization, provided that it is understood as a process of using various means of pressure, predominantly of non-military nature. It is argued that the urgent task in the context of counteracting hybrid threats is to assess the probability of multiplicative effects from the implementation of their combinations. The military, economic and information spheres have been identified as key dimensions of the hybrid confrontation. The specifics of hybrid threats in the economic sphere are those that would allow the country initiating the aggression to disguise its participation in the conflict, and the target country to obtain critical resources for the development of its economic system. The essence of synergy and cumulation effects is considered and their interpretation in the coordinates of hybrid warfare is given. The relevant effects are defined as multiplicative, that is, those that have a multiplier effect, providing accumulation (accumulation) and synergy (amplification) from the implementation of threats in different areas of hybrid confrontation. Practical implications. Assessing the likelihood of the multiplier effect of a variety of hybrid threats will focus on countering those combinations of threats that can have a significant impact on the political and economic system of the state of hybrid aggression. Value/originality. Justification and formalization of conditions for obtaining multiplicative (cumulative and synergistic) effects from the use of various hybrid confrontation tools.

Hybrid threats as an object of educational practices in the cultural and artistic sphere of Ukraine (based on the experience of the Erasmus + project "Academic Counteraction to Hybrid Threats - #WARN" 610133-EPP-1-2019-1-FI-EPPKA2-CBHE-JP")

Purpose of the article. Investigate and summarize the experience of the National Academy of Culture and Arts Management in preparing graduates for the formation of special competencies that will professionally counteract hybrid threats in the socio-cultural sphere of Ukraine, acquaint them with methods of diagnosing and analyzing relevant hazards, organizational and legal bases, forms and methods countering threats, security of the national cultural and humanitarian sphere as a component of management of socio-cultural activities. Methodology. Dialectical and structural-system approaches, general scientific methods of abstraction, classification, and comparison are used. A synergetic approach to the theory of security science, structural-functional and system-situational methods of management science are applied. Methods of scientific analysis and scientometrics, empirical-cognitive method of pedagogical science are involved. Scientific novelty. For the first time, the organizational and methodological bases of the introduction of studying modern views on the essence of unconventional (hybrid) confrontation in the maintenance and algorithm of preparation of experts of a master's level on the management of sociocultural activity are investigated. Conclusions. The development of tools for the destructive impact on the socio-cultural sphere of sovereign states (societies) in the arsenal of "hybrid wars" encourages the introduction of management training for the socio-cultural sphere, development, and implementation of specialized courses to acquire special competencies that will allow future cultural and civilizational matrix as the basis of the viability of states and peoples. It is advisable to introduce structural and logical teaching of theoretical knowledge and practical skills on combating hybrid threats at different levels of higher education. It seems important to develop and implement cultural practices, training, and game components that will develop critical, creative, creative thinking while forming in future managers of socio-cultural activities skills to prevent destructive influences on the socio-cultural sphere. Key words: hybrid threats, hybrid war, national and information security, teaching methods, training and game practice, management of socio-cultural activities.

THE STRUCTURING OF ORGANIZATIONAL AND DOCTRINE OF STATE DEFENSE IN FACING HYBRID WARFARE

<div><p class="Els-history-head">Defense Doctrine and Strategy are designed to be able to synergize the performance of military and non-military components to protect and maintain Indonesia's national interests. The current doctrine of the Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) Military Campaign is still dominant in dealing with military threats, even though based on the 2018 Indonesian Defense White Paper, the TNI must also be able to deal with hybrid threats. With its adaptive nature to changing threats, problems will arise if the military campaign doctrine has not accommodated the TNI's strategy and way of acting in dealing with hybrid threats. The defense doctrine must be able to accommodate the integration of military and non-military components is facing various types of warfare and threats such as military threats, non-military threats, and hybrid threats. Especially for the kind of hybrid threats namely cyber threats, terrorism, and other unconventional threats. Through an analytical descriptive analysis based on qualitative methods, it is hoped that the proper organization and doctrine will be disentangled in the face of this model war. Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) as the war organizations that prioritize a modern universal perspective are a necessity as one of the efforts offered. This needs to be supported by the doctrine of national defense which accurately defines how an effort against hybrid warfare can transform from conventional to unconventional warfare and the actors involved. Military or TNI organizations that prioritize a modern universal perspective are supported by the doctrine of national defense which accurately maps how an effort against hybrid warfare could transform from conventional warfare to unconventional.</p></div>

Digital Transformation of National Security in the Context of Global Hybrid Threats

In this article, the authors raise the issues of compliance (adequacy) of the ideology, approaches and infrastructure of the national security system in the light of global changes in the economy, de facto hybrid wars and ongoing natural and environmental emergencies. As a central element of preparation for such events and reaction to them, the authors considers mobilization in the classical sense, enshrined in the legislation, analyzes it for compliance with current hybrid threats, and also suggests new approaches to the digital transformation of the complex system of national security and mobilization, in particular.

Programs and investments in disruptive technologies in defence

Hybrid Threats and Wars in 21st Century - Making Society and Critical Infrastructure Resilient are extremely important for us to respond to different future threats and challenges. Defence leadership has acknowledged that they must make significant and urgent changes to its people, processes, organisations and culture if they are to keep pace with its strategic competitors and sustain its national security posture.