La Falla de las Encuestas en las Elecciones Argentinas de 2019. Un Análisis en Perspectiva Comparada Internacional (The Failure of the Polls in the 2019 Argentine Elections. An Analysis in International Comparative Perspective)

(English): The performance of polls in the 2019 Argentine elections reached its lowest point since democratic restoration in 1983. Their errors were much greater than those observed in recent years in mature democracies, where there is talk about a crisis of this type of surveys. In the primaries, Argentine pollsters widely underestimated the advantage of the Everyone's Front opposition alliance over the governing Together for Change. But after adjusting their methods, in the general election they overestimated that advantage by similar margins. We analyze both failures in an international comparative perspective. Vote intention data for president was used to calculate error indicators and compare them with current international averages and those of past decades, and with errors in several electoral cycles in the US and the UK. We examine ongoing changes in the survey industry, falling response rates, and causes of error identified by new academic studies and work commissioned by professional associations in the field of public opinion research. This literature shows that pre-election polls are no more inaccurate today than in the past and underlines the importance of "non-sampling" errors, particularly those produced by non-response bias, when the probability of participating in a poll is lower for certain groups, such as people with little interest in politics or low social or institutional trust. These types of errors and their causes are now better understood and procedures can be designed to improve the accuracy of estimations. We also discuss the impact of inaccurate polls on political strategies and the media narrative of elections, as well as the difficulty for pollsters, journalists and political actors to acknowledge and communicate the levels of uncertainty associated with electoral predictions. Our analysis highlights basic limitations of the polling industry and public opinion research in Argentina, such as the lack of a professional association and the incipient development of electoral behavior studies. Pollsters were surprised when voters punished the government because of the economic crisis, even though it was the most likely scenario according to a not very large but significant set of empirical studies on economic voting in Argentina and Latin America. The substantial errors in 2019 have implications for the reliability of issue polling, which may show a distorted picture of opinions in Argentine society.

All-Russian Voting as an Institution of Democracy: Justification, Effects, Perspectives

Introduction. The actuality of the topic is determined by the emergence of a new institution for Russia – the all-Russian voting, regarding which there is no single interpretation of the scientific community. The reform of the Constitution – amendments in 2020 – solved the urgent questions concerning the value-ideological sphere and also the socio-economic and political ones. The purpose of the article is to determine the justification, effects and perspectives of all-Russian voting as an institution of democracy and a legal institution. We made an attempt to systematically analyze the phenomenon of all-Russian voting and determine its meaning and prospects on the basis of existing regulatory legal acts, scientific developments of sociologists and lawyers. It provides the novelty of the work presented.Methodology and sources. The empirical base of the study is the data of the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center poll on the awareness of Russians about the nationwide voting on amendments to the Constitution, as well as the results of the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center electoral forecast on 06.23.2020, materials of the official website of the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation on the results of the all-Russian vote in 2020. In our work we used the concepts and developments of Russian scientists: Dzidoev R. M., Ilyin V. A., Morev M. V., Khorunzhiy S. N., Khristoforova E. I., Sokolova E. A., Chebotarev G. N. and others. We also used M. Weber’s theory of plebiscite democracy and the theory of social institution. The study used the method of systems analysis and general logical methods.Results and discussion. In connection with the conduct of the all-Russian vote on the approval of amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation in 2020, new regulatory legal acts were adopted. The emergence of the phenomenon of all-Russian voting has caused discussions in the scientific community and in society about the legitimacy and consequences of this political and legal phenomenon. In the article the author examines the sociological aspects of the all-Russian vote as an institution of democracy regarding the validity, nature, causes, consequences and perspectives. Namely, the forecasts of the institutionalization of the all-Russian vote, the features of this manifestation of democracy in relation to other forms of democracy in Russia, its significance for society are touched upon.Conclusion. Russia is a democratic state, and the forms of manifestation of democracy are enshrined in legislation. The all-Russian voting was held in accordance with the regulatory legal acts specially created for its implementation. A new institution of democracy has been formed. The result of voting for amendments to the Constitution showed the level and dynamics of interaction between the state and society, the timeliness of the questions put to the voting. Withal, the introduction of the all-Russian voting in the legal system of Russia and the question of the final institutionalization of the relevant relationship seems unlikely.

Misinformation and public opinion of science and health: Approaches, findings, and future directions

A summary of the public opinion research on misinformation in the realm of science/health reveals inconsistencies in how the term has been defined and operationalized. A diverse set of methodologies have been employed to study the phenomenon, with virtually all such work identifying misinformation as a cause for concern. While studies completely eliminating misinformation impacts on public opinion are rare, choices around the packaging and delivery of correcting information have shown promise for lessening misinformation effects. Despite a growing number of studies on the topic, there remain many gaps in the literature and opportunities for future studies.

Specific of believers’ perception of the situation with Covid-19 epidemic: public opinion research data

Quarantine restrictions associated with the COVID-19 epidemic, except for other spheres, tightly touched upon the sphere of religious life, in particular the implementation of religious practices in a well-established way. The state tried to introduce restrictions on these practices, which, given their connection with the sphere of sacred, may have consequences in the strengthening social tensions or open resistance from believers. The situation with discontent and criticism by religious organizations took place, but the reaction from the wide masses of believers is more important. Accordingly, there is a need for fixation and tracking of such a reaction. The data obtained in the survey of the Ukrainian population indicate a greater, compared with non-religious people, the concerns of believers with the situation with the epidemic of COVID-19. This may be a consequence of both the influence of information and interpretations that believers receive in their religious organizations and the specifics of the personality and the worldview of believers associated with their religious beliefs. At the same time, the more concern with epidemic by religious persons is not connected with a more critical attitude to the actions of authorities and with the desire to full abolition of the existing restrictions.

Group-affirmation and trust in international relations: Evidence from Ukraine

How can states with a history of recent armed conflict trust one another? Distrust between Ukraine and Russia aggravates security fears and limits hopes for a meaningful resolution of the bloodiest armed conflict in Europe since 1994. Hostility levels have risen dramatically between the populations of Ukraine and Russia after the events of 2013–2015. Political psychology offers two competing approaches to increase trust between the publics of different countries: appealing to an overarching, common identity above the national level vs. affirming a sense of national identity. This project asks which of these approaches increases trust towards Russia among the Ukrainian public. The study employs a survey experiment (between-subjects design) to evaluate these competing claims. The survey is to be fielded by a reputable public opinion research firm, the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, based in Ukraine.

Interviewer Effect on the Survey Data in Lithuania: Analysis of Three Surveys

The article analyses the interviewer effect on the data of three public opinion surveys on political attitudes of the population conducted in Lithuania. The study discusses why in international comparative studies Lithuania stands out for its extremely high interviewer effect, which raises serious doubts about the reliability and suitability of the data for analysis. The article, first, reviews the reasons for the interviewer effect and the methods of its measurement and, second, presents the results of multilevel modelling. The analysis of surveys conducted by three different public opinion research agencies reveals that the interviewer effect varies significantly depending on the research agency. The hypotheses on the differences in the interviewer effect related to the nature of the questions were not confirmed, but it was found that the interviewer effect was greater on more abstract and complex questions. In the conclusions, the recommendations for researchers working with surveys on how to control the interviewer effect are provided.