scholarly journals The Natural Rate of Interest and the Optimal Rate of Interest in the Steady State

Author(s):  
Carl Christian von Weizsäcker ◽  
Hagen M. Krämer

AbstractThe “natural rate of interest” is the hypothetical, risk-free real rate of interest that would obtain in a closed economy, if net public debt were zero. It is considerably less than the optimal steady-state rate of interest, which is equal to the system’s growth rate. This holds for a very general “meta-model.” The fundamental equation of capital theory holds on the optimal steady-state path: T = Z − D, where T is the overall economic period of production, Z is the representative private “waiting period” of consumers and D is the public debt ratio. Prosperity is at least 30% lower at the natural rate of interest than at the optimal rate.

1965 ◽  
Vol 209 (4) ◽  
pp. 811-814 ◽  
Author(s):  
John C. Porter ◽  
M. S. Klaiber

The rate of secretion of corticosterone from the left adrenal of rats receiving a constant input of ACTH was determined for different flows of blood through the adrenal during the 2- to 3-hr interval following hypophysectomy. Two hours after hypophysectomy the secretion of corticosterone was low in all groups regardless of flow. An input of 0.26 mU ACTH/min caused a steady increase in secretion for 30–40 min before a steady-state rate was attained. The average steady-state rate of secretion was 1.1, 2.4, 3.5, 6.2, 7.2, 6.2, and 6.2 µg/5 min for flows of 0.005, 0.012, 0.023, 0.034, 0.039, 0.051, and 0.058 ml/min, respectively. Under the conditions of these experiments where the input of ACTH was 0.26 mU/min the secretion of corticosterone increased significantly with time of input of ACTH and with flow of blood through the adrenal.


Author(s):  
Carl Christian von Weizsäcker ◽  
Hagen M. Krämer

AbstractThe Great Divergence: The period of production T is not rising anymore. The “waiting period” Z is rising over time with the rising standard of living and rising life expectancy, and this is the case worldwide. In the interest of full employment, the public debt periodD has to compensate for this divergence: T = Z − D. Using an extrapolation procedure that we have developed and the available empirical data, we calculate total private wealth in the OECD plus China region. Net public debt already accounts for nearly half of private wealth today. COVID-19 increases the optimal steady-statepublic debt period. Both our theory and our empirical findings are increasingly confirmed by the work of other economists: for example, by Lawrence Summers’secular stagnation thesis and by the study of Jordà, Schularick and others on the secular evolution of private wealth.


2016 ◽  
Vol 91 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 161-176
Author(s):  
Maral Kichian

The natural rate of interest is an unobservable entity and its measurement presents some important empirical challenges. In this paper, we use identification-robust methods and central bank real-time staff projections to obtain estimates for the equilibrium real rate from contemporaneous and forward-looking Taylor-type interest rate rules. The methods notably account for the potential presence of endogeneity, under-identification, and errors-in-variables concerns. Our applications are conducted on Canadian data. The results reveal some important identification difficulties associated with some of our models, reinforcing the need to use identification-robust methods to estimate such policy functions. Despite these challenges, we are able to obtain fairly comparable point estimates for the real equilibrium interest rate across our different models, and in the case of the best fitting model, also remarkable estimate precision.


1993 ◽  
Vol 321 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Pieraggi ◽  
J. P. Guillemet ◽  
B. de Mauduit

ABSTRACTThe crystallisation behaviour of LPCVD silicon films has been investigated by TEM from in situ isothermal annealing of undoped a-Si films deposited from disilane (Si2H6) at temperatures 450,465 and 480 °C and at gas pressure of 200 MTorr. Nucleation kinetics, grain growth rates and crystallisation kinetics were determined for temperatures ranging from 600 to 675 °C. Nucleation kinetics have been experimentally determined in the early first stages of annealing : they do not show any steady-state rate and are fitted according to a power law. Experimental data for crystallisation kinetics are fitted by an Avrami law without introducing any incubation time.


1974 ◽  
Vol 141 (3) ◽  
pp. 683-691 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodney D. Cooke

1. The Ca2+dependence of the activity of plasma Factor XIIIa was studied by using the continuous assay based on the incorporation of dansylcadaverine into dephosphorylated acetylated β-casein (β-substrate). The Km for Ca2+is about 0.170mm. 2. At low concentrations of Ca2+there was a lag in attaining the steady-state rate. The size of the lag was decreased and eventually abolished if the enzyme was preincubated with a high concentration of Ca2+before assay. The concentration of Ca2+required to decrease the lag phase by 50% in 10min depended on the protein concentration: at 0.87mg of protein/ml it required 17mm-Ca2+and at 0.44mg/ml it needed 10mm-Ca2+. 3. The concentrations of Ca2+required either to abolish the lag phase in the appearance of enzyme activity or to activate the essential thiol for reaction with 5,5′-dithiobis-(2-nitrobenzoate) in 10min incubation were similar at the same protein concentration. This indicated that Ca2+induces a conformation change that is responsible for both phenomena. A model is proposed that links this conformation change to the dissociation of the tetrameric enzyme. 4. This was supported by the observation that the addition of excess of b chains to the Factor XIIIa (a′2b2) increased the concentration of Ca2+required to expose the reactive thiol, and inhibited the Ca2+-dependent aggregation of a′ chains. 5. Platelet Factor XIIIa (a′2) was inhibited by 5,5′-dithiobis-(2-nitrobenzoate) in the absence of Ca2+, and no lag phases were observed in attaining the steady-state rate at low Ca2+concentrations, thus confirming the model for the activation of the plasma enzyme. 6. The Ca2+dependence of platelet Factor XIIIa indicated that Ca2+has an additional role in the enzyme mechanism of the plasma enzyme, perhaps being involved in substrate binding. 7. The dependence of the stability of plasma Factor XIIIa on Ca2+and protein concentration indicates that the decay in activity is related to the tetramer dissociation. 8. β-Substrate decreased the Ca2+concentration required for (1) abolition of the lag phase and (2) enzyme inhibition by thiol reagents. The effect on the former is greater than on the latter. 9. The role of the b chains of the plasma Factor and the evolutionary significance of the plasma and platelet Factors are considered.


1990 ◽  
Vol 127 (2) ◽  
pp. L15-L18 ◽  
Author(s):  
V.M. Radhakrishnan ◽  
M. Kamaraj

Gas-phase dissociation of fluorine ( 1 Ʃ + g ) molecules in an agron bath at 3000 K was studied by using the 3D Monte Carlo classical trajectory (3DMCCT) method. To assess the importance of the potential energy surface (PES) in such calculations, three surfaces, with a fixed, experimentally determined F 2 dissociation energy, were constructed. These surfaces span the existing experimental uncertainties in the shape of the F 2 potential. The first potential was the widest and softest; in the second potential the anharmonicity was minimized. The intermediate potential was constructed to ‘localize’ anharmonicity in the energy range in which the collisions are most reactive. The remaining parameters for each PES were estimated from the best available data on interatomic potentials. By using the single uniform ensemble (SUE) method (Kutz, H. D. & Burns, G. J. chem. Phys . 72, 3652-3657 (1980)), large ensembles of trajectories (LET) were generated for the PES. Two such ensembles consisted of 30000 trajectories each and the third of 26200. It was found that the computed one-way-flux equilibrium rate coefficients (Widom, B. Science 148, 1555-1560 (1965)) depend in a systematic way upon the anharmonicity of the potential, with the most anharmonic potential yielding the largest rate coefficient. Steady-state reaction-rate constants, which correspond to experimentally observable rate constants, were calculated by the SUE method. It was determined that this method yields (for a given trajectory ensemble, PES and translational temperature) a unique steady-state rate constant, independent of the initial, arbitrarily chosen, state (Tolman, R. C. The principles of statistical mechanics , p. 17. Oxford University Press (1938)) of the LET, and consequently independent of the corresponding initial value of the reaction rate coefficient. For each initial state of the LET, the development of the steady-state rate constant from the equilibrium rate coefficient was smooth, monotonic, and consistent with the detailed properties of the PES. It was found that, although the increased anharmonicity of the F 2 potential enhanced the equilibrium rate coefficients, it also enhanced the non-equilibrium effects. As a result, the steady-state rate constants were found to be insensitive to the variation of the PES. Thus, the differences among the steady-state rate constants for the three potentials were of the order of their standard errors, which was about 15% or less. On the other hand, the calculated rate constants exceeded the experimental rate constant by a factor of five to six. Because within the limitations of classical mechanics the calculations were ab initio , it was tentatively concluded that the discrepancy of five to six is due to the use of classical mechanics rather than details of the PES structure.


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