Model Checking Finite-Horizon Markov Chains with Probabilistic Inference

We revisit the symbolic verification of Markov chains with respect to finite horizon reachability properties. The prevalent approach iteratively computes step-bounded state reachability probabilities. By contrast, recent advances in probabilistic inference suggest symbolically representing all horizon-length paths through the Markov chain. We ask whether this perspective advances the state-of-the-art in probabilistic model checking. First, we formally describe both approaches in order to highlight their key differences. Then, using these insights we develop Rubicon, a tool that transpiles Prism models to the probabilistic inference tool . Finally, we demonstrate better scalability compared to probabilistic model checkers on selected benchmarks. All together, our results suggest that probabilistic inference is a valuable addition to the probabilistic model checking portfolio, with Rubicon as a first step towards integrating both perspectives.