Relearning Process for SPRT in Structural Change Detection of Time-Series Data

2014 ◽  
pp. 123-136
Author(s):  
Ryosuke Saga ◽  
Naoki Kaisaku ◽  
Hiroshi Tsuji
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Structural Change ◽  
Change Detection ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data

Time Series Analysis and Structural Change Detection

2010 ◽  
pp. 377-395
Author(s):  
Kwok Pan Pang
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Structural Change ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Change Detection ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Over Time

Most research on time series analysis and forecasting is normally based on the assumption of no structural change, which implies that the mean and the variance of the parameter in the time series model are constant over time. However, when structural change occurs in the data, the time series analysis methods based on the assumption of no structural change will no longer be appropriate; and thus there emerges another approach to solving the problem of structural change. Almost all time series analysis or forecasting methods always assume that the structure is consistent and stable over time, and all available data will be used for the time series prediction and analysis. When any structural change occurs in the middle of time series data, any analysis result and forecasting drawn from full data set will be misleading. Structural change is quite common in the real world. In the study of a very large set of macroeconomic time series that represent the ‘fundamentals’ of the US economy, Stock and Watson (1996) has found evidence of structural instability in the majority of the series. Besides, ignoring structural change reduces the prediction accuracy. Persaran and Timmermann (2003), Hansen (2001) and Clement and Hendry (1998, 1999) showed that structural change is pervasive in time series data, ignoring structural breaks which often occur in time series significantly reduces the accuracy of the forecast, and results in misleading or wrong conclusions. This chapter mainly focuses on introducing the most common time series methods. The author highlights the problems when applying to most real situations with structural changes, briefly introduce some existing structural change methods, and demonstrate how to apply structural change detection in time series decomposition.

scholarly journals Transient dynamic phenotypes as criteria for model discrimination: fold-change detection in Rhodobacter sphaeroides chemotaxis

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (80) ◽  
pp. 20120935 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullah Hamadeh ◽  
Brian Ingalls ◽  
Eduardo Sontag
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Change Detection ◽  
Rhodobacter Sphaeroides ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Transient Dynamic ◽  
Experimental Time ◽  
Theoretical Assumptions ◽  
Experimental Time Series ◽  
Fold Change Detection

The chemotaxis pathway of the bacterium Rhodobacter sphaeroides shares many similarities with that of Escherichia coli . It exhibits robust adaptation and has several homologues of the latter's chemotaxis proteins. Recent theoretical results have correctly predicted that the E. coli output behaviour is unchanged under scaling of its ligand input signal; this property is known as fold-change detection (FCD). In the light of recent experimental results suggesting that R. sphaeroides may also show FCD, we present theoretical assumptions on the R. sphaeroides chemosensory dynamics that can be shown to yield FCD behaviour. Furthermore, it is shown that these assumptions make FCD a property of this system that is robust to structural and parametric variations in the chemotaxis pathway, in agreement with experimental results. We construct and examine models of the full chemotaxis pathway that satisfy these assumptions and reproduce experimental time-series data from earlier studies. We then propose experiments in which models satisfying our theoretical assumptions predict robust FCD behaviour where earlier models do not. In this way, we illustrate how transient dynamic phenotypes such as FCD can be used for the purposes of discriminating between models that reproduce the same experimental time-series data.

scholarly journals On the run-length of the structural change in time series data

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wiwik Prihartanti ◽  
Dwilaksana Abdullah Rasyid ◽  
Nur Iriawan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Structural Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Run Length
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