experimental time series
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2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. V. A. Vasconcelos ◽  
L. H. Miranda-Filho ◽  
A. J. F. Souza ◽  
A. R. C. Romaguera ◽  
A. L. R. Barbosa

Abstract The robot–environment–task triad provides many opportunities to revisit physical problems with fresh eyes. Hence, we develop a simple experiment to observe chaos in classical billiards with a macroscopic 3.38-meter long setup. Using a digital video camera, one records the dynamic time evolution of the interaction between a robot and Bunimovich stadium billiards with specular reflection. From the experimental time series, we calculate the Lyapunov exponent λ as a function of a geometric parameter. The results are in concordance with theoretical predictions. In addition, we determine the Poincaré surface of section from the experimental data and check its sensitivity to the initial conditions as a function of time.


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (10 (113)) ◽  
pp. 40-47
Author(s):  
Boris Pospelov ◽  
Vladimir Andronov ◽  
Evgenіy Rybka ◽  
Olekcii Krainiukov ◽  
Nadiya Maksymenko ◽  
...  

A self-adjusting zero-order Brown’s model has been devised. This model makes it possible to predict with high accuracy not only fires in the premises but also irreversible processes and phenomena of a random and chaotic nature under actual conditions. The essence of the self-adjusting model is that, based on Kalman’s approach, it is proposed to set the smoothing parameter for each time moment. Such a parameter is determined depending on the resulting current forecast error, taking into consideration the real and unknown dynamics of the studied series and noise. That does not require the selection of the smoothing parameter characteristic of known models. In addition, the proposed Brown’s model, unlike the known modifications, does not require setting a dynamics model of the level of the examined time series. The self-adjusting model provides negligible errors and efficiency of the forecast. The operability of the devised model was checked using an example of the experimental time series for the current measure of the recurrence of the increments of the state of the air medium in the laboratory chamber during alcohol combustion. As quantitative indicators of the quality of the forecast error, the current values for the square and absolute values were considered. It has been established that the current square of the forecast error is more than six orders of magnitude smaller compared to the case of a fixed smoothing parameter from a beyond-the-limit set. However, the current square of the forecast error for abrupt changes in the dynamics of the series level is half that of the fixed parameter of the beyond-the-limit set. It is noted that the results confirm the feasibility of the proposed self-adjusting Brown’s model


Author(s):  
Rachael D. Dombrowski ◽  
Bree Bode ◽  
Kathryn A. G. Knoff ◽  
James Mallare ◽  
E. Whitney G. Moore ◽  
...  

The Best Food Forward (BFF) project aims to provide multiple nutrition supports and interventions to improve family food security (FS) and health outcomes associated with FS within two metropolitan school districts. A quasi-experimental time-series design guided a multilevel evaluation for BFF through surveys, biometric screenings, focus groups, and observations among a random sample of caregiver–child dyads. FS, utilization of school meal programs, and nutrition behaviors were observed and analyzed at three time points: preintervention, postintervention pre-COVID-19, and postintervention post-COVID-19. Participants included 122 parents and 162 youth. Families reported (1) an income less than $35,000 annually (48.8%) and (2) a COVID-19-related job loss (36.9%). Parents used Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Programs or Women, Infants, Children benefits prior to (51.1%) and following COVID-19 (50.0%). No significant differences in FS were found. RM-ANOVA indicated an increase in breakfast consumption at home and a decrease in use of the school breakfast program (F(1.78, 74) = 19.64, p < 0.001, partial η2 = 0.21) and school lunch program (F(1.51, 74) = 23.30, p < 0.001, partial η2 = 0.24). Rates of FS and eating behaviors did not change significantly over time. Correlations of program usage and eating behaviors demonstrate the importance of promoting participation in school meal programs. BFF may have prevented significant decreases in FS during COVID-19.


2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hermine Biermé ◽  
Camille Constant ◽  
Anne Duittoz ◽  
Christine Georgelin

Abstract We present in this paper a global methodology for the spike detection in a biological context of fluorescence recording of GnRH-neurons calcium activity. For this purpose we first propose a simple stochastic model that could mimic experimental time series by considering an autoregressive AR(1) process with a linear trend and specific innovations involving spiking times. Estimators of parameters with asymptotic normality are established and used to set up a statistical test on estimated innovations in order to detect spikes. We compare several procedures and illustrate on biological data the performance of our procedure.


2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (12) ◽  
pp. 2150205
Author(s):  
Leonardo Ricci ◽  
Alessio Perinelli ◽  
Michele Castelluzzo ◽  
Stefano Euzzor ◽  
Riccardo Meucci

Detection of chaos in experimental data is a crucial issue in nonlinear science. Historically, one of the first evidences of a chaotic behavior in experimental recordings came from laser physics. In a recent work, a Minimal Universal Model of chaos was developed by revisiting the model of laser with feedback, and a first electronic implementation was discussed. Here, we propose an upgraded electronic implementation of the Minimal Universal Model, which allows for a precise and reproducible analysis of the model’s parameters space. As a marker of a possible chaotic behavior the variability of the spiking activity that characterizes one of the system’s coordinates was used. Relying on a numerical characterization of the relationship between spiking activity and maximum Lyapunov exponent at different parameter combinations, several potentially chaotic settings were selected. The analysis via divergence exponent method of experimental time series acquired by using those settings confirmed a robust chaotic behavior and provided values of the maximum Lyapunov exponent that are in very good agreement with the theoretical predictions. The results of this work further uphold the reliability of the Minimal Universal Model. In addition, the upgraded electronic implementation provides an easily controllable setup that allows for further developments aiming at coupling multiple chaotic systems and investigating synchronization processes.


Author(s):  
Rocío Álvarez-Marín ◽  
Lorena López-Cerero ◽  
Francisca Guerrero-Sánchez ◽  
Begoña Palop-Borras ◽  
María Dolores Rojo-Martín ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacilli (CR-GNB) are among the most threatening microorganisms worldwide and carbapenem use facilitates their spread. Antimicrobial stewardship programmes (ASPs) can help to optimize the use of antibiotics. This study evaluates the impact of a multifaceted educational ASP on carbapenem use and on the epidemiology of CR-GNB. Methods We conducted a quasi-experimental, time-series study in seven hospitals, from January 2014 to September 2018. The key intervention was composed of educational interviews promoting the appropriate use of carbapenems. The primary endpoints were carbapenem consumption and incidence density (ID) of CR-GNB. All non-duplicated CR-GNB clinical isolates were tested using phenotypic assays and PCR for the presence of carbapenemases. Joinpoint regression and interrupted time-series analyses were used to determine trends. Results A decrease in carbapenem consumption throughout the study period [average quarterly percentage change (AQPC) −1.5%, P &lt; 0.001] and a −8.170 (−16.064 to −0.277) level change following the intervention were observed. The ID of CR-Acinetobacter baumannii decreased (AQPC −3.5%, P = 0.02) and the overall ID of CR-GNB remained stable (AQPC −0.4%, P = 0.52). CR-GNB, CR-Pseudomonas aeruginosa and CR-A. baumannii IDs per hospital correlated with the local consumption of carbapenems. The most prevalent carbapenem resistance mechanisms were OXA-23 for CR-A. baumannii (76.1%), OXA-48 for CR-Klebsiella pneumoniae (66%) and no carbapenemases for CR-P. aeruginosa (91.7%). The epidemiology of carbapenemases was heterogeneous throughout the study, especially for carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae. Conclusions In conclusion, a multifaceted, educational interview-based ASP targeting carbapenem prescribing reduced carbapenem use and the ID of CR-A. baumannii.


Author(s):  
Krzysztof Podlaski ◽  
Michał Durka ◽  
Tomasz Gwizdałła ◽  
Alicja Miniak-Górecka ◽  
Krzysztof Fortuniak ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Mikhail A. Mishchenko ◽  
Denis I. Bolshakov ◽  
Alexander S. Vasin ◽  
Valery V. Matrosov ◽  
Ilya V. Sysoev

2020 ◽  
pp. 104365962095042
Author(s):  
Linda James ◽  
Anne Stiles ◽  
Chas Stephens

Introduction Longitudinal studies regarding educational strategies to help nursing students gain transcultural self-efficacy skills are limited. This study aimed to compare the long-term effects of an entry-level nursing culture course (ELNCC) on transcultural self-efficacy (TSE) in beginning nursing students with a graduating class who did not have the ELNCC. Method Using a longitudinal, quasi-experimental time-series design, data were collected using Jeffreys’s Transcultural Self-Efficacy Tool (TSET) from the experimental group ( n = 106) pre- and post-ELNCC, end of second semester, and program exit. A control group of 62 senior nursing students who did not take the ELNCC were administered the TSET once, at graduation. Results All posttest scores were significantly higher than pretest scores in overall TSE, cognitive, practical, and affective dimensions. At graduation, the experimental group’s scores were significantly higher than those of the control group in all dimensions except the affective. Discussion This study supports the early introduction of a separate culture course with field components to teach TSE to nursing students.


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