Communicating Geological Uncertainty: The Use of the Conceptual Engineering Geological Model

Abstract. Uncertainty of groundwater model predictions has in the past mostly been related to uncertainty in the hydraulic parameters whereas uncertainty in the geological structure has not been considered to the same extent. Recent developments in theoretical methods for quantifying geological uncertainty have made it possible to consider this factor in groundwater modeling. In this study we have applied the multiple-point geostatistical method (MPS) integrated in the Stanford Geostatistical Modeling Software (SGeMS) for exploring the impact of geological uncertainty on groundwater flow patterns for a site in Denmark. Realizations from the geostatistical model were used as input to a groundwater model developed from MODFLOW within the GMS modeling environment. The uncertainty analysis was carried out in three scenarios involving simulation of groundwater head distribution and groundwater age. The first scenario implied 100 stochastic geological models all assigning the same hydraulic parameters for the same geological units. In the second scenario the same 100 geological models were subjected to model optimization where the hydraulic parameters for each of them were estimated by calibration against observations of hydraulic head and stream discharge. In the third scenario each geological model was run with 216 randomized set of parameters. The analysis documented that the uncertainty on the conceptual geological model was as significant as the uncertainty related to the embedded hydraulic parameters.

Download Full-text

Analyzing the effects of geological and parameter uncertainty on prediction of groundwater head and travel time

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-17-3245-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 17 (8) ◽

pp. 3245-3260 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

X. He ◽

T. O. Sonnenborg ◽

F. Jørgensen ◽

A.-S. Høyer ◽

R. R. Møller ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Travel Time ◽

Groundwater Modeling ◽

Water Model ◽

Hydraulic Parameters ◽

Geological Model ◽

Groundwater Model ◽

Geological Uncertainty ◽

Groundwater Head ◽

Geological Models ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Uncertainty of groundwater model predictions has in the past mostly been related to uncertainty in the hydraulic parameters, whereas uncertainty in the geological structure has not been considered to the same extent. Recent developments in theoretical methods for quantifying geological uncertainty have made it possible to consider this factor in groundwater modeling. In this study we have applied the multiple-point geostatistical method (MPS) integrated in the Stanford Geostatistical Modeling Software (SGeMS) for exploring the impact of geological uncertainty on groundwater flow patterns for a site in Denmark. Realizations from the geostatistical model were used as input to a groundwater model developed from Modular three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water model (MODFLOW) within the Groundwater Modeling System (GMS) modeling environment. The uncertainty analysis was carried out in three scenarios involving simulation of groundwater head distribution and travel time. The first scenario implied 100 stochastic geological models all assigning the same hydraulic parameters for the same geological units. In the second scenario the same 100 geological models were subjected to model optimization, where the hydraulic parameters for each of them were estimated by calibration against observations of hydraulic head and stream discharge. In the third scenario each geological model was run with 216 randomized sets of parameters. The analysis documented that the uncertainty on the conceptual geological model was as significant as the uncertainty related to the embedded hydraulic parameters.

Download Full-text

A 3D geological model for the Ruiz-Tolima Volcanic Massif (Colombia): Assessment of geological uncertainty using a stochastic approach based on Bézier curve design

Tectonophysics ◽

10.1016/j.tecto.2016.09.011 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 687 ◽

pp. 139-157 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Javier González-Garcia ◽

Mark Jessell

Keyword(s):

Stochastic Approach ◽

Bézier Curve ◽

Bezier Curve ◽

Geological Model ◽

Geological Uncertainty ◽

Curve Design ◽

3D Geological Model

Download Full-text

The Geosciences Applied to Lunar Exploration

Symposium - International Astronomical Union ◽

10.1017/s0074180900178222 ◽

1962 ◽

Vol 14 ◽

pp. 169-257 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

J. Green

Keyword(s):

Lunar Surface ◽

Probable Mechanism ◽

Point Of View ◽

Lunar Exploration ◽

Geological Model ◽

Apply Geophysics ◽

Surface Features ◽

The Impact

The term geo-sciences has been used here to include the disciplines geology, geophysics and geochemistry. However, in order to apply geophysics and geochemistry effectively one must begin with a geological model. Therefore, the science of geology should be used as the basis for lunar exploration. From an astronomical point of view, a lunar terrain heavily impacted with meteors appears the more reasonable; although from a geological standpoint, volcanism seems the more probable mechanism. A surface liberally marked with volcanic features has been advocated by such geologists as Bülow, Dana, Suess, von Wolff, Shaler, Spurr, and Kuno. In this paper, both the impact and volcanic hypotheses are considered in the application of the geo-sciences to manned lunar exploration. However, more emphasis is placed on the volcanic, or more correctly the defluidization, hypothesis to account for lunar surface features.

Download Full-text