Climate Change Impact on Stream Flow in the Upper Gilgel Abay Catchment, Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia

2015 ◽  
pp. 645-673 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anwar A. Adem ◽  
Seifu A. Tilahun ◽  
Essayas K. Ayana ◽  
Abeyou W. Worqlul ◽  
Tewodros T. Assefa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Change Impact

scholarly journals Evaluation of climate change impact on Blue Nile Basin Cascade Reservoir operation – case study of proposed reservoirs in the Main Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

2015 ◽  
Vol 366 ◽  
pp. 133-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Wondimagegnehu ◽  
K. Tadele
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Hydropower Station ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract. This study mainly deals with evaluation of climate change impact on operation of the Blue Nile Basin Cascade Reservoir. To evaluate the impact of climate change, climate change scenarios of evapotranspiration and precipitation were developed for three periods. Output of ECHAM5 with RCM for the A1B emissions scenario were used to develop the future climate change scenarios. A hydrological model, HEC-HMS, was used to simulate current and future inflow volume to the reservoirs. The projected future climate shows an increasing trend in both maximum and minimum temperature and in evapotranspiration, but precipitation shows a fluctuating trend in the next century. Relative to the current condition, the average annual open water evaporation for the Beko-Abo and Mandaya reservoirs show increasing trend whereas the Border Reservoir shows a decreasing trend. Comparison of the base period and the future period average annual inflow volume shows an increase for Beko-Abo and Mandaya, but at Border Reservoir a decrease in volume is observed. The average annual power generation projected using HEC-ReSim also shows an increase at the Beko-Abo and Mandaya hydropower station, whereas a slight decrease occurs for Border hydropower station. On average, the time based and volumetric reliability of the reservoirs was estimated to be more than 90%. The resilience of the reservoirs is below 50% and their vulnerability is less than 50%. Therefore, these performance indices reveal good performance of the reservoirs except regarding the speed of recovery of the reservoirs from failure because the reservoirs will not able to recover rapidly from failure to a safe state.

Climate Change Impact on Sediment Yield in the Upper Gilgel Abay Catchment, Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

2015 ◽  
pp. 615-644 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anwar A. Adem ◽  
Seifu A. Tilahun ◽  
Essayas K. Ayana ◽  
Abeyou W. Worqlul ◽  
Tewodros T. Assefa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Change Impact

scholarly journals Change in Stream Flow of Gumara Watershed, upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia under Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenarios

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3046
Author(s):  
Gashaw Gismu Chakilu ◽  
Szegedi Sándor ◽  
Túri Zoltán
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Rainfall Amount ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathway ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Gumara Watershed ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Climate change plays a pivotal role in the hydrological dynamics of tributaries in the upper Blue Nile basin. The understanding of the change in climate and its impact on water resource is of paramount importance to sustainable water resources management. This study was designed to reveal the extent to which the climate is being changed and its impacts on stream flow of the Gumara watershed under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios. The study considered the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios using the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used for calibration and projection of future climatic data of the study area. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for simulation of the future stream flow of the watershed. Results showed that the average temperature will be increasing by 0.84 °C, 2.6 °C, and 4.1 °C in the end of this century under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The change in monthly rainfall amount showed a fluctuating trend in all scenarios but the overall annual rainfall amount is projected to increase by 8.6%, 5.2%, and 7.3% in RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, respectively. The change in stream flow of Gumara watershed under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios showed increasing trend in monthly average values in some months and years, but a decreasing trend was also observed in some years of the studied period. Overall, this study revealed that, due to climate change, the stream flow of the watershed is found to be increasing by 4.06%, 3.26%, and 3.67%under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively.

scholarly journals Change in Stream Flow of Gumara Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia under Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenario

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gashaw Gismu Chakilu ◽  
Szegedi Sandor ◽  
Turi Zoltan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Rainfall Amount ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Gumara Watershed ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Climate change plays a pivotal role in the hydrology of tributaries in the upper Blue Nile basin. This study was designed to reveal the extent to which climate change impacts on stream flow of the Gumara watershed under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenario. The study considered the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios using the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used for calibration and projection of future climatic data of the study area. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for simulation of the future stream flow of the watershed. Result showed that the average temperature will be increasing by 0.84oC, 2.6oC and 4.1oC in the end of this century under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively. The change in monthly rainfall amount showed a fluctuating trend in all scenarios but the overall annual rainfall amount is projected to increase by 8.6%, 5.2% and 7.3% in RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 respectively. Overall, this study revealed that, due to climate change, the stream flow of the watershed is found to be increasing by 4.06%, 3.26%, and 3.67% under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively.

scholarly journals Climate change in the Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia: implications for water resources and sediment transport

2016 ◽  
Vol 139 (2) ◽  
pp. 229-243 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moges B. Wagena ◽  
Andrew Sommerlot ◽  
Anteneh Z. Abiy ◽  
Amy S. Collick ◽  
Simon Langan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Transport ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin
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