scholarly journals Change in Stream Flow of Gumara Watershed, upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia under Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenarios

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3046
Author(s):  
Gashaw Gismu Chakilu ◽  
Szegedi Sándor ◽  
Túri Zoltán
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Rainfall Amount ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathway ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Gumara Watershed ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Climate change plays a pivotal role in the hydrological dynamics of tributaries in the upper Blue Nile basin. The understanding of the change in climate and its impact on water resource is of paramount importance to sustainable water resources management. This study was designed to reveal the extent to which the climate is being changed and its impacts on stream flow of the Gumara watershed under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios. The study considered the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios using the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used for calibration and projection of future climatic data of the study area. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for simulation of the future stream flow of the watershed. Results showed that the average temperature will be increasing by 0.84 °C, 2.6 °C, and 4.1 °C in the end of this century under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The change in monthly rainfall amount showed a fluctuating trend in all scenarios but the overall annual rainfall amount is projected to increase by 8.6%, 5.2%, and 7.3% in RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, respectively. The change in stream flow of Gumara watershed under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios showed increasing trend in monthly average values in some months and years, but a decreasing trend was also observed in some years of the studied period. Overall, this study revealed that, due to climate change, the stream flow of the watershed is found to be increasing by 4.06%, 3.26%, and 3.67%under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively.

scholarly journals Change in Stream Flow of Gumara Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia under Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenario

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gashaw Gismu Chakilu ◽  
Szegedi Sandor ◽  
Turi Zoltan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Rainfall Amount ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Gumara Watershed ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Climate change plays a pivotal role in the hydrology of tributaries in the upper Blue Nile basin. This study was designed to reveal the extent to which climate change impacts on stream flow of the Gumara watershed under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenario. The study considered the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios using the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used for calibration and projection of future climatic data of the study area. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for simulation of the future stream flow of the watershed. Result showed that the average temperature will be increasing by 0.84oC, 2.6oC and 4.1oC in the end of this century under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively. The change in monthly rainfall amount showed a fluctuating trend in all scenarios but the overall annual rainfall amount is projected to increase by 8.6%, 5.2% and 7.3% in RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 respectively. Overall, this study revealed that, due to climate change, the stream flow of the watershed is found to be increasing by 4.06%, 3.26%, and 3.67% under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively.

scholarly journals Evaluation of climate change impact on Blue Nile Basin Cascade Reservoir operation – case study of proposed reservoirs in the Main Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

2015 ◽  
Vol 366 ◽  
pp. 133-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Wondimagegnehu ◽  
K. Tadele
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Hydropower Station ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract. This study mainly deals with evaluation of climate change impact on operation of the Blue Nile Basin Cascade Reservoir. To evaluate the impact of climate change, climate change scenarios of evapotranspiration and precipitation were developed for three periods. Output of ECHAM5 with RCM for the A1B emissions scenario were used to develop the future climate change scenarios. A hydrological model, HEC-HMS, was used to simulate current and future inflow volume to the reservoirs. The projected future climate shows an increasing trend in both maximum and minimum temperature and in evapotranspiration, but precipitation shows a fluctuating trend in the next century. Relative to the current condition, the average annual open water evaporation for the Beko-Abo and Mandaya reservoirs show increasing trend whereas the Border Reservoir shows a decreasing trend. Comparison of the base period and the future period average annual inflow volume shows an increase for Beko-Abo and Mandaya, but at Border Reservoir a decrease in volume is observed. The average annual power generation projected using HEC-ReSim also shows an increase at the Beko-Abo and Mandaya hydropower station, whereas a slight decrease occurs for Border hydropower station. On average, the time based and volumetric reliability of the reservoirs was estimated to be more than 90%. The resilience of the reservoirs is below 50% and their vulnerability is less than 50%. Therefore, these performance indices reveal good performance of the reservoirs except regarding the speed of recovery of the reservoirs from failure because the reservoirs will not able to recover rapidly from failure to a safe state.

scholarly journals Spatial and Temporal Variability in Hydrological Responses of the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatenda Lemann ◽  
Vincent Roth ◽  
Gete Zeleke ◽  
Alemtsehay Subhatu ◽  
Tibebu Kassawmar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Green Water ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Hydrological Responses ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Shallow Soils ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin

To assess the spatial and temporal availability of blue and green water for up- and downstream stakeholders, the hydrological responses of the upper Blue Nile basin in the Ethiopian Highlands was modelled and analysed with newly generated input data, such as soil and land use maps. To consider variations in the seasonal climate, topography, soil, land use, and land management, the upper Blue Nile basin was modelled in seven major sub-basins. The modelling showed significant spatial and temporal differences in the hydrological responses of different sub-basins and years. The long-term mean annual drainage ratios of the watersheds range from <0.1 to >0.65, and the annual drainage ratio of one sub-basin can vary from 0.22 to 0.49. Steep slopes, shallow soils, and cultivated areas increase the drainage ratios due to high surface runoff, low soil moisture content, and a smaller share of evapotranspiration. Various climate change scenarios predict more precipitation, and land use change scenarios foresee a higher share of cultivated areas due to population growth. In view of these trends, results from our study suggest that drainage ratios will increase and more available blue water can be expected for downstream stakeholders.

scholarly journals Climate change in the Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia: implications for water resources and sediment transport

2016 ◽  
Vol 139 (2) ◽  
pp. 229-243 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moges B. Wagena ◽  
Andrew Sommerlot ◽  
Anteneh Z. Abiy ◽  
Amy S. Collick ◽  
Simon Langan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Transport ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin
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