scholarly journals Assessing Climate Change Impact on Gilgel Abbay and Gumara Watershed Hydrology, the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

2016 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 1005-1018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hailu Sheferaw Ayele ◽  
Ming-Hsu Li ◽  
Ching-Pin Tung ◽  
Tzu-Ming Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Watershed Hydrology ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Gumara Watershed ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin

Climate Change Impact on Stream Flow in the Upper Gilgel Abay Catchment, Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia

2015 ◽  
pp. 645-673 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anwar A. Adem ◽  
Seifu A. Tilahun ◽  
Essayas K. Ayana ◽  
Abeyou W. Worqlul ◽  
Tewodros T. Assefa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Change Impact

scholarly journals Evaluation of climate change impact on Blue Nile Basin Cascade Reservoir operation – case study of proposed reservoirs in the Main Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

2015 ◽  
Vol 366 ◽  
pp. 133-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Wondimagegnehu ◽  
K. Tadele
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Hydropower Station ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract. This study mainly deals with evaluation of climate change impact on operation of the Blue Nile Basin Cascade Reservoir. To evaluate the impact of climate change, climate change scenarios of evapotranspiration and precipitation were developed for three periods. Output of ECHAM5 with RCM for the A1B emissions scenario were used to develop the future climate change scenarios. A hydrological model, HEC-HMS, was used to simulate current and future inflow volume to the reservoirs. The projected future climate shows an increasing trend in both maximum and minimum temperature and in evapotranspiration, but precipitation shows a fluctuating trend in the next century. Relative to the current condition, the average annual open water evaporation for the Beko-Abo and Mandaya reservoirs show increasing trend whereas the Border Reservoir shows a decreasing trend. Comparison of the base period and the future period average annual inflow volume shows an increase for Beko-Abo and Mandaya, but at Border Reservoir a decrease in volume is observed. The average annual power generation projected using HEC-ReSim also shows an increase at the Beko-Abo and Mandaya hydropower station, whereas a slight decrease occurs for Border hydropower station. On average, the time based and volumetric reliability of the reservoirs was estimated to be more than 90%. The resilience of the reservoirs is below 50% and their vulnerability is less than 50%. Therefore, these performance indices reveal good performance of the reservoirs except regarding the speed of recovery of the reservoirs from failure because the reservoirs will not able to recover rapidly from failure to a safe state.

Climate Change Impact on Sediment Yield in the Upper Gilgel Abay Catchment, Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

2015 ◽  
pp. 615-644 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anwar A. Adem ◽  
Seifu A. Tilahun ◽  
Essayas K. Ayana ◽  
Abeyou W. Worqlul ◽  
Tewodros T. Assefa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Change Impact

scholarly journals Change in Stream Flow of Gumara Watershed, upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia under Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenarios

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3046
Author(s):  
Gashaw Gismu Chakilu ◽  
Szegedi Sándor ◽  
Túri Zoltán
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Rainfall Amount ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathway ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Gumara Watershed ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Climate change plays a pivotal role in the hydrological dynamics of tributaries in the upper Blue Nile basin. The understanding of the change in climate and its impact on water resource is of paramount importance to sustainable water resources management. This study was designed to reveal the extent to which the climate is being changed and its impacts on stream flow of the Gumara watershed under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios. The study considered the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios using the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used for calibration and projection of future climatic data of the study area. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for simulation of the future stream flow of the watershed. Results showed that the average temperature will be increasing by 0.84 °C, 2.6 °C, and 4.1 °C in the end of this century under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The change in monthly rainfall amount showed a fluctuating trend in all scenarios but the overall annual rainfall amount is projected to increase by 8.6%, 5.2%, and 7.3% in RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, respectively. The change in stream flow of Gumara watershed under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios showed increasing trend in monthly average values in some months and years, but a decreasing trend was also observed in some years of the studied period. Overall, this study revealed that, due to climate change, the stream flow of the watershed is found to be increasing by 4.06%, 3.26%, and 3.67%under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively.

scholarly journals Influence of downscaling methods in projecting climate change impact on hydrological extremes of upper Blue Nile basin

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 7857-7896 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. T. Taye ◽  
P. Willems
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Weather Generator ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Downscaling Method ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Good For ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin

Abstract. Methods from two statistical downscaling categories were used to investigate the impact of climate change on high rainfall and flow extremes of the upper Blue Nile basin. The main downscaling differences considered were on the rainfall variable while a generally similar method was applied for temperature. The applied downscaling methods are a stochastic weather generator, LARS-WG, and an advanced change factor method, the Quantile Perturbation Method (QPM). These were applied on 10 GCM runs and two emission scenarios (A1B and B1). The downscaled rainfall and evapotranspiration were input into a calibrated and validated lumped conceptual model. The future simulations were conducted for 2050s and 2090s horizon and were compared with 1980–2000 control period. From the results all downscaling methods agree in projecting increase in temperature for both periods. Nevertheless, the change signal on the rainfall was dependent on the climate model and the downscaling method applied. LARS weather generator was good for monthly statistics although caution has to be taken when it is applied for impact analysis dealing with extremes, as it showed a deviation from the extreme value distribution's tail shape. Contrary, the QPM method was good for extreme cases but only for good quality daily climate model data. The study showed the choice of downscaling method is an important factor to be considered and results based on one downscaling method may not give the full picture. Regardless, the projections on the extreme high flows and the mean main rainy season flow mostly showed a decreasing change signal for both periods. This is either by decreasing rainfall or increasing evapotranspiration depending on the downscaling method.

scholarly journals Change in Stream Flow of Gumara Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia under Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenario

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gashaw Gismu Chakilu ◽  
Szegedi Sandor ◽  
Turi Zoltan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Rainfall Amount ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Gumara Watershed ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Climate change plays a pivotal role in the hydrology of tributaries in the upper Blue Nile basin. This study was designed to reveal the extent to which climate change impacts on stream flow of the Gumara watershed under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenario. The study considered the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios using the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used for calibration and projection of future climatic data of the study area. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for simulation of the future stream flow of the watershed. Result showed that the average temperature will be increasing by 0.84oC, 2.6oC and 4.1oC in the end of this century under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively. The change in monthly rainfall amount showed a fluctuating trend in all scenarios but the overall annual rainfall amount is projected to increase by 8.6%, 5.2% and 7.3% in RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 respectively. Overall, this study revealed that, due to climate change, the stream flow of the watershed is found to be increasing by 4.06%, 3.26%, and 3.67% under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively.

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