Monitoring Short Term Changes of Infectious Diseases in Uganda with Gaussian Processes

Aim. To analyse the causes of death of individuals infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/patients with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the Clinical Infectious Diseases Hospital named after S.P. Botkin in 2008-2010 taking into account the timing of disease, comorbidities, and clinical and laboratory data. Methods. The study included 439 HIV-infected individuals, who died in the Clinical Infectious Diseases Hospital named after S.P. Botkin in 2008-2010. Two groups of patients were identified: deaths from HIV/AIDS (n=306) and from other diseases (n=133, HIV infection was considered to be a concomitant disease). In both groups, analyzed were the short-term mortality rates, the presence of drugs and/or alcohol dependency, and the main causes of death (according to autopsy results). Results. In the group of patients who died of HIV-infection/AIDS and who did not receive antiretroviral therapy, generalized tuberculosis was diagnosed most often (65.7% of cases). Other rare diseases were pneumocystis pneumonia, cryptococcosis, cerebral toxoplasmosis, generalized fungal infection, cerebral lymphoma, and cytomegalovirus infection. The most frequent causes of death in the group of patients whose HIV-infection was considered to be a concomitant diseases were chronic viral hepatitis in the cirrhotic stage (42.9%) and septic thromboendocarditis, which were mainly diagnosed in social maladjusted patients: patients with alcoholism or intravenous drugs users. During evaluation of the short-term mortality rates it was established that 21 to 29% of patients in different years died on the 1st-3rd day after admission, which was related to extremely severe conditions of the patients. In Russia, including St. Petersburg, an annual increase in the number of new cases of HIV infection and increased mortality are registered, which indicates the severity of the epidemic and makes it possible to predict the increase in the number of patients requiring hospital treatment. Conclusion. The main causes of death among HIV-infected individuals in 2008-2010 were generalized tuberculosis and chronic viral hepatitis in the stage of cirrhosis; the high index of short-term mortality among HIV-infected patients suggests the need for measures for early detection of HIV-positive individuals and their medical examination, as well as an increase in the number of beds in order to provide specialized care to HIV-infected individuals in St. Petersburg.

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Biostatistical Analysis on COVID-19

Journal of Infectious Diseases & Case Reports ◽

10.47363/jidscr/2020(1)102 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-12

Author(s):

Bin Zhao ◽

◽

Xia Jiang ◽

Jinming Cao ◽

◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Clinical Trials ◽

Infectious Diseases ◽

Mainland China ◽

Time Series Model ◽

Dynamics Model ◽

Short Term ◽

Term Prediction ◽

Short Term Prediction ◽

Biostatistical Analysis

Since receiving unexplained pneumonia patients at the Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan, China in December 2019, the new coronavirus (COVID-19) has rapidly spread in Wuhan, China and spread to the entire China and some neighboring countries. We establish the dynamics model of infectious diseases and time series model to predict the trend and short-term prediction of the transmission of COVID-19, which will be conducive to the intervention and prevention of COVID-19 by departments at all levels in mainland China and buy more time for clinical trials.

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Signal-to-Noise Ratios Required for Short-Term Narrowband Detection of Gaussian Processes

10.21236/ad0751573 ◽

1972 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Albert H. Nuttall ◽

Anthony F. Margaraci

Keyword(s):

Gaussian Processes ◽

Signal To Noise ◽

Short Term

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Multitask Bayesian Spatiotemporal Gaussian Processes for Short-Term Load Forecasting

IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics ◽

10.1109/tie.2019.2928275 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 67 (6) ◽

pp. 5132-5143 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Mostafa Gilanifar ◽

Hui Wang ◽

Lalitha Madhavi Konila Sriram ◽

Eren Erman Ozguven ◽

Reza Arghandeh

Keyword(s):

Gaussian Processes ◽

Load Forecasting ◽

Short Term ◽

Short Term Load Forecasting

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STUDY OF ADRENAL FUNCTION IN CHILDREN WITH MENINGITIS

PEDIATRICS ◽

10.1542/peds.40.2.163 ◽

1967 ◽

Vol 40 (2) ◽

pp. 163-183 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Claude J. Migeon ◽

Frederic M. Kenny ◽

Wellington Hung ◽

Mary L. Voorhess

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Bacterial Meningitis ◽

Infectious Diseases ◽

District Of Columbia ◽

Steroid Treatment ◽

Adrenal Function ◽

Short Term ◽

Children’S Hospitals ◽

Severe Infections ◽

Term Basis

CORTICOSTEROIDS were introduced into the therapeutic armamentarium in 1949, and initially there was considerable enthusiasm regarding their possible uses in infectious diseases. One authority in a review in 1957 commented as follows: "I am prepared to state that the use of ACTH or adrenocorticosteroids on a short term basis in carefully selected patients with severe infections, often with debilitating and painful complications, not only will frequently contribute to the recovery of patients, but also will at times prevent permanent and disabling sequelae. In preparation for this review over 1,000 reports in the literature have been surveyed, and the more pertinent references have been included." However, initial enthusiasm has abated, and there are now few, if any, situations in which it is universally agreed that steroid treatment of an infectious disease is beneficial. Experience in this field has been acquired largely through the comparison of steroid treated with non-treated controls. In order to help clarify the still debatable issue of whether steroid treatment might be beneficial in cases of fulminating meningococcemia, we have selected another approach. We have attempted to study adrenal function in steroid-untreated patients, and we have compared the data with those obtained in other types of bacterial meningitis and in aseptic meningoencephalitis. METHODS Patients Studied Unselected patients (Tables I-IV) admitted for meningitis were studied at The Children's Hospitals of The District of Columbia and of Pittsburgh, and The Children's Medical and Surgical Center of Baltimore. House officers at those centers notified the authors at the time of, or shortly after, the patients' admission. Most patients were started on the study immediately after admission, but some of them were included after varying time lapses.

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Estimating Short-Term Returns with Volatilities for High Frequency Stock Trades in Emerging Economies Using Gaussian Processes (GPs)

Investment Strategies in Emerging New Trends in Finance ◽

10.5772/intechopen.96486 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Leonard Mushunje ◽

Maxwell Mashasha ◽

Edina Chandiwana

Keyword(s):

Gaussian Processes ◽

Stock Prices ◽

High Frequency ◽

Stock Price ◽

Probabilistic Models ◽

Price Volatility ◽

Price Limits ◽

Short Term ◽

Forecasting Errors ◽

The Relationship

Fundamental theorem behind financial markets is that stock prices are intrinsically complex and stochastic in nature. One of the complexities is the volatilities associated with stock prices. Price volatility is often detrimental to the return economics and thus investors should factor it in when making investment decisions, choices, and temporal or permanent moves. It is therefore crucial to make necessary and regular stock price volatility forecasts for the safety and economics of investors’ returns. These forecasts should be accurate and not misleading. Different traditional models and methods such as ARCH, GARCH have been intuitively implemented to make such forecasts, however they fail to effectively capture the short-term volatility forecasts. In this paper we investigate and implement a combination of numeric and probabilistic models towards short-term volatility and return forecasting for high frequency trades. The essence is that: one-day-ahead volatility forecasts were made with Gaussian Processes (GPs) applied to the outputs of a numerical market prediction (NMP) model. Firstly, the stock price data from NMP was corrected by a GP. Since it not easy to set price limits in a market due to its free nature, and randomness of the prices, a censored GP was used to model the relationship between the corrected stock prices and returns. To validate the proposed approach, forecasting errors were evaluated using the implied and estimated data.

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