Energy Policy, Air Quality, and Climate Mitigation in South Africa: The Case for Integrated Assessment

ABSTRACT Clean air policies in China have substantially reduced PM2.5 air pollution in recent years, primarily by curbing end-of-pipe emissions. However, further reaching the WHO guideline may instead depend upon the air quality co-benefits of ambitious climate action. Here, we assess pathways of Chinese PM2.5 air quality from 2015 to 2060 under a combination of scenarios which link Global and China's climate mitigation pathways (i.e. global 2°C- and 1.5°C-pathways, NDC pledges, and carbon neutrality goals) to local clean air policies. We find that China can achieve both its near-term climate goals (peak emissions) and PM2.5 air quality annual standard (35 μg/m3) by 2030 by fulfilling its NDC pledges and continuing air pollution control policies. However, the benefits of end-of-pipe control reductions are mostly exhausted by 2030, and reducing PM2.5 exposure of the majority of the Chinese population to below 10 μg/m3 by 2060 will likely require more ambitious climate mitigation efforts such as China's carbon neutrality goals and global 1.5°C-pathways. Our results thus highlight that China's carbon neutrality goals will play a critical role in reducing air pollution exposure to the WHO guideline and protecting public health.

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An Integrated Assessment of Water Markets: Australia, Chile, China, South Africa and the USA

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.1740485 ◽

2010 ◽

Author(s):

Gary D. Libecap ◽

R. Quentin Grafton ◽

Clay Landry ◽

Sam McGlennon ◽

R. J. O'Brien

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Integrated Assessment ◽

Water Markets ◽

The Usa

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An integrated approach to modelling energy policy in South Africa: Evaluating carbon taxes and electricity import restrictions

10.35188/unu-wider/2014/856-8 ◽

2014 ◽

Author(s):

Channing Arndt ◽

Rob Davies ◽

Sherwin Gabriel ◽

Konstantin Makrelov ◽

Bruno Merven ◽

...

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Energy Policy ◽

Integrated Approach ◽

Carbon Taxes ◽

Import Restrictions

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Air quality monitoring and management for the industrialized Highveld region of South Africa

Air Pollution XVI ◽

10.2495/air080231 ◽

2008 ◽

Author(s):

G. V. Mkhatshwa

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Air Quality ◽

Quality Monitoring ◽

Air Quality Monitoring

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Potential impact of a US climate policy and air quality regulations on future air quality and climate change

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-15-31385-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 15 (21) ◽

pp. 31385-31432

Author(s):

Y. H. Lee ◽

D. T. Shindell ◽

G. Faluvegi ◽

R. W. Pinder

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Climate Change ◽

Air Quality ◽

Climate Policy ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Surface Ozone ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Climate Mitigation ◽

The Us ◽

Indirect Forcing

Abstract. We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that reduces 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50 % below 2005 emissions. Using NASA GISS ModelE2, we look at the impacts in year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration), and other US emissions and the rest of the world emissions are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in the future but result in positive radiative forcing. Surface PM2.5 is reduced by ~ 2 μg m−3 on average over the US, and surface ozone by ~ 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the US, mainly due to the PM2.5 reduction (~ 74 200 lives saved). The air quality regulations reduces the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter) more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone), leading a strong positive radiative forcing (RF) by both aerosols direct and indirect forcing: total RF is ~ 0.04 W m−2 over the globe; ~ 0.8 W m−2 over the US. Under the hypothetical climate policy, future US energy relies less on coal and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it leads to climate dis-benefits over the US. In 2055, the US mean total RF is +0.22 W m−2 due to positive aerosol direct and indirect forcing, while the global mean total RF is −0.06 W m−2 due to the dominant negative CO2 RF (instantaneous RF). To achieve a regional-scale climate benefit via a climate policy, it is critical (1) to have multi-national efforts to reduce GHGs emissions and (2) to target emission reduction of light-absorbing species (e.g., BC and O3) on top of long-lived species. The latter is very desirable as the resulting climate benefit occurs faster and provides co-benefits to air quality and public health.

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Air quality indicators from the Environmental Performance Index: potential use and limitations in South Africa

Clean Air Journal ◽

10.17159/2410-972x/2017/v27n1a8 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 27 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

RM Garland ◽

M Naidoo ◽

B Sibiya ◽

R Oosthuizen

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Air Quality ◽

Quality Indicators ◽

Environmental Performance ◽

Ambient Air ◽

Ambient Air Quality ◽

Environmental Performance Index ◽

Time Period ◽

Source Data ◽

Potential Use

In responding to deteriorating air quality, many countries, including South Africa, have implemented national programmes that aim to manage and regulate ambient air quality, and the emissions of air pollutants. One aspect within these management strategies is effective communication to stakeholders, including the general public, with regard to the state and trend of ambient air quality in South Africa. Currently, information on ambient air quality is communicated through ambient mass concentration values, as well as number of exceedances of South African National Ambient Standards. However, these do not directly communicate the potential impact on human health and the ecosystem. To this end, the use of air quality indicators is seen as a potential way to achieve communication to stakeholders in a simplified, yet scientifically defensible manner. Air quality indicators and their source data from the Environmental Performance Index (EPI) were interrogated to understand their potential use in South Africa. An assessment of four air quality indicators, together with their source data, showed improvements in air quality over the time period studied, though the input data do have uncertainties. The source data for the PM indicators, which came from a global dataset, underestimated the annual PM2.5 concentrations in the Highveld Priority Area and Vaal Triangle Airshed Priority Area over the time period studied (2009-2014) by ~3.7 times. This highlights a key limitation of national-scale indicators and input data, that while the data used by the EPI are a well-thought out estimate of a country’s air quality profile, they remain a generalised estimate. The assumptions and uncertainty inherent in such an ambitious global-wide attempt make the estimates inaccurate for countries without proper emissions tracking and accounting and few monitoring stations, such as South Africa. Thus, the inputs and resultant indicators should be used with caution until such a time that local and ground-truthed data and inputs can be utilised.

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