The Rise and Fall of India’s Relative Investment Price: A Tale of Policy Error and Reform

India’s relative price of investment rose 44 percent from 1981 to 1991 and fell 26 percent from 1991 to 2006. We build a simple DGE model, calibrated to Indian data, in order to explore the impact of capital import substitution policies and their reform post-1991 in accounting for this rise and fall. Our model delivers a 23 percent rise before reform and a 31 percent fall thereafter. GDP per effective labor was 3 percent lower in 1991 compared to 1981 due to import restrictions on capital goods. Their removal, and a 71 percentage point reduction in tariff rates, raised GDP per effective labor permanently by 20 percent. (JEL E22, E23, F13, O11, O16, O19)

Prevalence and Management Practices of Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) in Cattle at Natore District of Bangladesh

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a potentially contagious viral disease in cattle, caused by the Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV), which belongs to the family Poxviridae. The virus is suspected to spread via biological vectors such as mosquitoes, flies, ticks, and direct contact. It is a significant economic disease caused by a virus that causes significant losses in milk production, fertility, abortions, import restrictions, and, in some cases, death in the livestock animals. This study aimed to assess the current state of LSD and its management on several farms in the north-western region of Bangladesh. Data were obtained from two Upazilas in the Natore district (Natore Sadar and Baraigram) using a structured questionnaire. During the study period of 1 June to 20 December 2020, a total of 34 small farms and 87 animals were monitored. The OIE guidelines directed the diagnosis of LSD based on current clinical indicators. MS Excel and SPSS statistical software were used to evaluate all of the data. Morbidity, mortality, and case-fatality rates were found to be 64.70%, 2.94 %, and 4.53 % in Natore Sadar and 83.02 %, 3.77 %, and 4.55 % in Baraigram Upazilas, respectively. Female animals that were newly matured (2-4 years) were a larger prone to LSD infection (43.1%) than animals of other ages. A total of 34.43% illness was found in young bull cattle aged (2-4). Bull and heifer calves are also vulnerable populations, with reports of LSD infection leading to mortality. Limb swelling is a common clinical symptom, and LSD-positive young mature (2-4 year) cattle had the most significant rate (18.39%) of limb swelling. The farm hygiene practice is a critical determinant in the spread of LSDV, and a large proportion of cattle (48.27 %) infected with LSD were on farms with poor hygienic management, compared to good (01.14 %) and medium (01.14 %) hygienic management practices (26.43 %). Despite the fact that mosquito nets help prevent mosquitoes, most owners (91.17 %) did not use one in their cattle barn at night. More study is needed in Bangladesh to improve the clinical management of LSD, identify risk factors, and understand the molecular characteristics of diseases.

Argentina's investment outlook improves for now

Significance The rebound of commodities prices fuelled new investments in agroindustry and the energy and mining sectors, while the lifting of lockdown measures helped to boost private consumption, triggering new investments to expand production. Import restrictions drove import substitution in many manufacturing industries, while public works and lower dollar costs boosted construction. Impacts New investments in mining, energy and agriculture would enhance productivity and Argentina’s role as a commodity producer. Some manufacturing sectors will benefit from import substitution while others will focus on their role in global value chains. Political instability may undermine the investment recovery, while any fiscal adjustment would hit construction.

COVID-19 Pandemic Analysis

The development of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) deaths in selected nations and states is compared to the result of calculations using a conventional SEIR model of pandemic development. The model is based on the infection multiplier, R0, defined as the number of people infected by each infectious person. The infection rate increases exponentially when R0 >1.0; it remains constant at R0 = 1.0 and decreases for R0 < 1.0. R0 is determined by population behavior (frequency and proximity of interactions) and the ease by which a victim is infected by an infectious person (virus' virulence). It is reduced by herd immunity when a large fraction of the population acquires immunity by vaccination or by recovering from infection. The daily death rates in the U.S. and northern Europe exhibited peaks in April/May 2020 and Dec. 2020/Jan. 2021 with more a modest rate during the summer of 2020 and a gradually decreasing rate since Jan. 2021. The model produces this type of oscillatory response if it assumes that the population's R0 responds to information reported about the pandemic, but with a delay between infections and resulting behavioral adjustments. Oscillatory behavior is typical of a control loop with delay in its feedback. The analysis concludes that: Given the history of R0 the model predicts the development of pandemic deaths. However, since R0 is determined by the population's behavior, control of the pandemic in democracies depends primarily on preparation and the persuasive power of political and scientific authorities. Data for S. Korea and New Zealand demonstrate the effectiveness of such methods. For each death in the U.S. about 169 persons were infected, but fewer than half of them were identified as cases. The pandemic was prolonged in the U.S. because the population chose to keep R0 near 1.0 by relaxing restrictions once the death rate subsided. Initial values of R0 as high as 5.0 were observed, leading to infections doubling about every 2 days. If unabated, the resulting exponential growth increases the infected population by a factor of about 5000 before the death from the first infections is recorded. Arrival from Italy probably initiated the pandemic in the eastern U.S., but, by the time the first death was recorded the number of domestic infections exceeded by far those that were imported. Import restrictions beyond this point are ineffective except in delaying the arrival of more virulent mutations. If no social restrictions had been adopted, approximately 1.6 million deaths would have resulted in the U.S. The vaccine, although developed and deployed at record speed, was too late to ameliorate this result. A third peak in death rate in Sept. 2021 may be prevented if more than 80% of the population is vaccinated.

The Impact of China’s Tightening Environmental Regulations on International Waste Trade and Logistics

In recent years, China’s influence as the dominant importer of waste products has reshaped global waste trade through restrictive programs such as Operation Green Fence in 2013 and National Sword in 2017. These restrictions have greatly affected not only China’s import of waste products but also the international trade and global logistics of these products. China’s import restrictions in 2017 decreased the country’s import of waste plastic by 92% and used paper by 56%. It also increased the unit value of these two categories of waste by 27% and 13%, respectively, showing an improvement in the quality of imported waste. Most of these impacts originate from intensive margins. The restrictions diverted the flow of waste mostly to the low- and middle-income countries of the East Asian and Pacific regions along with Europe and Central Asia, as their imports increased by 161% and 266% for waste plastic and 101% and 77% for used paper, respectively. Compared with Operation Green Fence, the impact of the 2017 National Sword has been much higher, with shipping companies faced with a lack of products on backhaul routes and forced to change their longstanding practices.

The effect of pressure of environmental business and NGO interests on the policy of restricting the EU palm oil import from Indonesia and Malaysia

This research will explain how the pressure originating from the interests of business and environmental NGOs in the European Union on the policy of limiting the import of palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia. As we know, Indonesia and Malaysia are the largest palm oil producing countries in the world and export a lot of their palm oil to the European Union. Recently, the European Union has issued a policy of limiting the import of palm oil for biodiesel products, which policy has been in effect in June 2019. In this policy Limitation of the use of palm oil throughout 2021-2023 will be at the same level in 2019, then its use will be reduced gradually until it runs out in 2030. Business interests and environmental NGOs here have a strong enough influence in the issuance of the policy. This study uses the concept of a Bureaucratic Political Model to answer how pressures from business interests and environmental NGOs influence the policy of import restrictions on palm oil for biodiesel products in the European Union.