Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Local and Regional Seismic Sources Along the Pacific Coast of Central America with Emphasis on the Role of Selected Uncertainties

2019 ◽  
Vol 177 (3) ◽  
pp. 1471-1495 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalia Zamora ◽  
Andrey Y. Babeyko
Keyword(s):  
Central America ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Pacific Coast ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Seismic Sources ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Local and Regional Seismic Sources Along the Pacific Coast of Central America

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalia Zamora ◽  
Andrey Y. Babeyko
Keyword(s):  
Central America ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Pacific Coast ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Central American ◽  
Seismic Sources ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Tsunami Numerical Modeling ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment

<p>Historical data indicate that the Middle America subduction zone represents the primary tsunamigenic source that affects the Central American coastal areas. In recent years, the tsunami potential in the region has mainly been assessed using maximum credible earthquakes or historical events showing moderate tsunami potential. However, such deterministic scenarios are not provided with their adequate probability of occurrence. In this study, earthquake rates have been combined with tsunami numerical modeling in order to assess probabilistic tsunami hazard posed by local and regional seismic sources. The common conceptual framework for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment has been adapted to estimate the probabilities of exceeding certain tsunami amplitudes along the Central American Pacific coast. The study area encompasses seismic sources related to the Central America, Colombia and Ecuador subduction zones. In addition to the classical subduction inter-plate events, this study also incorporates sources at the outer rise, within the Caribbean crust as well as intraslab sources. The study yields conclusive remarks showing that the highest hazard is posed to northwestern Costa Rica, El Salvador and the Nicaraguan coast, southern Colombia and northern Ecuador. In most of the region it is 50 to 80% likely that the tsunami heights will exceed 2 m for the 500 year time exposure (T). The lowest hazard appears to be in the inner part of the Fonseca Gulf, Honduras. We also show the large dependence of PTHA on model assumptions. While the approach taken in this study represents a thorough step forward in tsunami hazard assessment in the region, we also highlight that the integration of all possible uncertainties will be necessary to generate rigorous hazard models required for risk planning.</p>

scholarly journals Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near- and far-field seismic sources

2009 ◽  
Vol 114 (C11) ◽  
Author(s):  
F. I. González ◽  
E. L. Geist ◽  
B. Jaffe ◽  
U. Kânoğlu ◽  
H. Mofjeld ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Seismic Sources ◽  
Far Field ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Far-Field Tsunami Hazard Assessment Along the Pacific Coast of Mexico by Historical Records and Numerical Simulation

2018 ◽  
Vol 175 (4) ◽  
pp. 1305-1323 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura G. Ortiz-Huerta ◽  
Modesto Ortiz ◽  
Alejandro García-Gastélum
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Pacific Coast ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Far Field ◽  
Historical Records ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment

The Dependency of Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment on Magnitude Limits of Seismic Sources in the South China Sea and Adjoining Basins

2016 ◽  
Vol 174 (6) ◽  
pp. 2351-2370
Author(s):  
Hongwei Li ◽  
Ye Yuan ◽  
Zhiguo Xu ◽  
Zongchen Wang ◽  
Juncheng Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
South China ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
Seismic Sources ◽  
The South ◽  
China Sea ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

scholarly journals PROBABILISTIC TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT (PTHA) AND PTHA-BASED TSUNAMI SCENARIO AT A PACIFIC COAST OF TOHOKU

2018 ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Naoto Kihara ◽  
Hideki Kaida ◽  
Tatsuto Kimura ◽  
Naoki Fujii ◽  
Keiichi Iizuka
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Pacific Coast ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Tsunami Scenarios ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Tree Approach

When planning tsunami disaster mitigation and designing important infrastructure from the viewpoint of tsunami resistance in coastal areas, the scale and frequency of tsunamis that will arrive at coastal areas in future are important information. On the other hand, there are large uncertainties in predicting future tsunamis, and thus it is difficult to predict a future tsunami correctly. The technology of probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) has been proposed to evaluate the relationship between the height and frequency of tsunamis that will arrive at coastal areas in future. To consider the uncertainties of the prediction in the PTHA, the logic-tree approach is often adopted. In this approach, both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties are considered systematically. The epistemic uncertainties are caused by lack of knowledge and the aleatory uncertainties are variabilities due to natural randomness. In the logic-tree approach, the epistemic uncertainties are expressed by tree branches and the aleatory uncertainties are expressed by the probabilistic density functions of predicted tsunami heights. By carrying out PTHA, we can obtain a hazard curve, which expresses the relationship between the tsunami height and annual frequency of exceedance. Recently, methodologies by which PTHA-based-tsunami-scenarios are determined have been proposed. By using tsunami scenarios, detailed inundation processes and patterns can be evaluated. In this study, we apply the technologies of PTHA to the pacific coast of Tohoku, Japan. Then, we determine PTHA-based tsunami scenarios, that overflow a seawall constructed at the target coast and can be used for the evaluation of inundation processes.

Generating Random Earthquake Events for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

2016 ◽  
Vol 173 (12) ◽  
pp. 3671-3692 ◽  
Author(s):  
Randall J. LeVeque ◽  
Knut Waagan ◽  
Frank I. González ◽  
Donsub Rim ◽  
Guang Lin
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment
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