Baby commodity booms? The impact of commodity shocks on fertility decisions and outcomes

Author(s):  
Francisco Gallego ◽  
Jeanne Lafortune
2010 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-195
Author(s):  
Gerardo Meil

The aim of this paper is to analyse, differentiated by gender, the effects that high geographical job mobility has on parenthood decisions. In particular, in a first part we will examine whether job mobility fosters childlessness and/or postponement of childbearing and if mobility implies a lower family size. In a second part we will analyse how the specific working conditions of mobile people and their resources for balancing working and private lives affect childlessness and postponement of parenthood. The analysis will be based on a representative survey of people aged 25 to 54, performed in six European countries (Germany, France, Spain, Poland, Switzerland and Belgium) in 2007, oversampling mobile people in order to get enough cases to analyse. Results show that the impact of high job mobility on the timing and quantum of parenthood is important, both for men and women, but stronger for the latter. Besides gender, the strength of the impact depends on the duration of job mobility and when it takes place in the lifecycle. Resources for promoting a better balance of working and private lives such as flexitime and teleworking have no clear impact on parenthood decisions, but having a supportive employer facilitates family development of mobile employees. A greater involvement of men in unpaid work does not seem to facilitate fertility decisions of mobile women. Zusammenfassung In diesem Beitrag wird der Frage nachgegangen, inwieweit hohe berufsbedingte räumliche Mobilität negative Folgen auf die Familienentwicklung hat. Im ersten Teil des Aufsatzes wird getrennt nach Geschlecht analysiert, ob Mobilität Kinderlosigkeit fördert, eine Verschiebung des Geburtenkalenders verursacht und ob sie eine Reduktion der Familiengröße zur Folge hat. Darüber hinaus wird in dem zweiten Teil analysiert, welchen Einfluss bestimmte Arbeitsbedingungen sowie die Ressourcen, die Familien zur Verfügung stehen, um Familie und Beruf zu vereinbaren, auf die Entscheidungen bezüglich Elternschaft ausüben. Die Analyse stützt sich auf eine repräsentative Umfrage in sechs europäischen Ländern (Deutschland, Frankreich, Spanien, Polen, Schweiz und Belgien) mit Personen im Alter zwischen 25 und 54 Jahren. Die Daten wurden in 2007 erhoben. Mobile Erwerbstätige wurden überproportional erhoben, um eine ausreichende Fallzahl zu gewährleisten. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Auswirkung der Mobilität auf die Familienentwicklung von Bedeutung ist, wobei sich Mobilität von Frauen stärker auswirkt. Darüber hinaus ist von Bedeutung, wann im Lebenslauf Mobilität und Elternschaft stattfinden und wie lange die Phase der mobilen Arbeit andauert. Flexible Arbeitszeiten oder die Möglichkeit, einen Teil der Arbeit zu Hause zu leisten, haben keinen eindeutigen Einfluss auf die Entscheidungen zur Elternschaft von mobilen Erwerbstätigen, wohl aber die Unterstützung durch den Arbeitgeber. Unterstützung seitens des Partners scheint die Entscheidung mobiler Frauen für Kinder nicht zu fördern.


Author(s):  
C. Y. Cyrus Chu

One of the most striking features of the topics analyzed in the previous chapters is the breadth and depth of the economics involved in the analysis of population dynamics. The conventional perception that “demographic movements were largely exogenous to the economic system, and were to be left to sociologists and other non-economists” (Samuelson, 1976, p. 243) may be based on a conventional understanding of demography itself. Once we realize that modern individual fertility decisions may be affected by many economic variables, we can understand why demographic movements may be correlated with various economic indexes of the society. Once we shift our focus from the size and growth rate of the population to its economic characteristics, we realize that there is an abundance of topics for research and analysis. Moreover, once we perceive that the characteristic composition of the population is usually an aggregate result of various decisions by individuals, we find that our analysis is not confined to fertility-related economic variables. Thus, we are able to use the general framework to study the income distribution (chapters 4, 5), the attitude composition (chapter 8), the occupation structure (chapter 9), and the aggregate savings and pensions (chapters 11,12) of the population. The methodology adopted in this book is quite consistent: I emphasize the impact of individual decisions on the aggregate dynamics of demographic characteristics. As far as the steady state or dynamic fluctuations are concerned, the theory of stochastic processes is the basic tool necessary for the analysis. Other than the possible technical difficulty, there is nothing conceptually difficult in the modeling. But very often, the aggregate variables in question may feed back and influence individual decisions. In chapters 8 and 9, we see how the aggregate custom or occupational composition in the previous period affects individual decisions in the current period. These are in fact special cases and are easily dealt with. For many other economic variables, the micro-macro interaction involved is rather complex. There are several variables that may affect and also be affected by individual decisions.


2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 699-717 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen O. Abrokwah ◽  
Christine M. Moser ◽  
Edward Norton

2021 ◽  
pp. 097639962110184
Author(s):  
Sudeshna Ghosh

This article examines the determinants of fertility, using annual data sets from 1980 to 2017 for two major developed economies of the Asian region, namely Hong Kong (China) and South Korea. The article applies the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model to study the impact of economic uncertainty on fertility decisions in these two countries. Using output volatility measure of economic uncertainty, the study shows that there is an asymmetric impact of economic uncertainty upon fertility decisions. Such an exploration demonstrates the extent of the impact of insecurity in the economy on fertility decisions. Furthermore, the study also explores the impact of infant mortality rate, old-age population, urbanization, income per capita, female employment levels, percentage of women in marriage or union, contraceptive prevalence and human capital formation on fertility decisions in these two advanced economies. The results confirm the asymmetry because the impact of the positive change of uncertainty and the impact of the negative change are not identical. The study concludes that for these major industrialized economies of Asia, economic uncertainty apart from the traditional demographic and economic factors appears to be a crucial factor in impacting fertility decisions.


1962 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 415-418
Author(s):  
K. P. Stanyukovich ◽  
V. A. Bronshten

The phenomena accompanying the impact of large meteorites on the surface of the Moon or of the Earth can be examined on the basis of the theory of explosive phenomena if we assume that, instead of an exploding meteorite moving inside the rock, we have an explosive charge (equivalent in energy), situated at a certain distance under the surface.


1962 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 169-257 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Green

The term geo-sciences has been used here to include the disciplines geology, geophysics and geochemistry. However, in order to apply geophysics and geochemistry effectively one must begin with a geological model. Therefore, the science of geology should be used as the basis for lunar exploration. From an astronomical point of view, a lunar terrain heavily impacted with meteors appears the more reasonable; although from a geological standpoint, volcanism seems the more probable mechanism. A surface liberally marked with volcanic features has been advocated by such geologists as Bülow, Dana, Suess, von Wolff, Shaler, Spurr, and Kuno. In this paper, both the impact and volcanic hypotheses are considered in the application of the geo-sciences to manned lunar exploration. However, more emphasis is placed on the volcanic, or more correctly the defluidization, hypothesis to account for lunar surface features.


1997 ◽  
Vol 161 ◽  
pp. 197-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duncan Steel

AbstractWhilst lithopanspermia depends upon massive impacts occurring at a speed above some limit, the intact delivery of organic chemicals or other volatiles to a planet requires the impact speed to be below some other limit such that a significant fraction of that material escapes destruction. Thus the two opposite ends of the impact speed distributions are the regions of interest in the bioastronomical context, whereas much modelling work on impacts delivers, or makes use of, only the mean speed. Here the probability distributions of impact speeds upon Mars are calculated for (i) the orbital distribution of known asteroids; and (ii) the expected distribution of near-parabolic cometary orbits. It is found that cometary impacts are far more likely to eject rocks from Mars (over 99 percent of the cometary impacts are at speeds above 20 km/sec, but at most 5 percent of the asteroidal impacts); paradoxically, the objects impacting at speeds low enough to make organic/volatile survival possible (the asteroids) are those which are depleted in such species.


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