Epochal changes in the seasonal evolution of tropical Indian Ocean warming associated with El Niño

2013 ◽  
Vol 42 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 805-822 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soumi Chakravorty ◽  
J. S. Chowdary ◽  
C. Gnanaseelan
2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 4707-4719 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zesheng Chen ◽  
Yan Du ◽  
Zhiping Wen ◽  
Renguang Wu ◽  
Chunzai Wang

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (13) ◽  
pp. 5427-5443
Author(s):  
Jiepeng Chen ◽  
Jin-Yi Yu ◽  
Xin Wang ◽  
Tao Lian

ABSTRACTPrevious studies linked the increase of the middle and low reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) rainfall to tropical Indian Ocean warming during extreme El Niños’ (e.g., 1982/83 and 1997/98 extreme El Niños) decaying summer. This study finds the linkage to be different for the recent 2015/16 extreme El Niño’s decaying summer, during which the above-normal rainfalls over MLRYR and northern China are respectively linked to southeastern Indian Ocean warming and western tropical Indian Ocean cooling in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The southeastern Indian Ocean warming helps to maintain the El Niño–induced anomalous lower-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific Ocean and southern China, which enhances moisture transport to increase rainfall over MLRYR. The western tropical Indian Ocean cooling first enhances the rainfall over central-northern India through a regional atmospheric circulation, the latent heating of which further excites a midlatitude Asian teleconnection pattern (part of circumglobal teleconnection) that results in an above-normal rainfall over northern China. The western tropical Indian Ocean cooling during the 2015/16 extreme El Niño is contributed by the increased upward latent heat flux anomalies associated with enhanced surface wind speeds, opposite to the earlier two extreme El Niños.


2017 ◽  
Vol 51 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 2097-2112 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Herold ◽  
A. Santoso

1999 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 735-738 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisan Yu ◽  
Michele M. Rienecker

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 1375-1383 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haibo Hu ◽  
Xiaoyuan Hong ◽  
Yuan Zhang ◽  
Xiuqun Yang ◽  
Wei Liu ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (12) ◽  
pp. e2022255118
Author(s):  
Zhen-Qiang Zhou ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Renhe Zhang

Heavy monsoon rainfall ravaged a large swath of East Asia in summer 2020. Severe flooding of the Yangtze River displaced millions of residents in the midst of a historic public health crisis. This extreme rainy season was not anticipated from El Niño conditions. Using observations and model experiments, we show that the record strong Indian Ocean Dipole event in 2019 is an important contributor to the extreme Yangtze flooding of 2020. This Indian Ocean mode and a weak El Niño in the Pacific excite downwelling oceanic Rossby waves that propagate slowly westward south of the equator. At a mooring in the Southwest Indian Ocean, the thermocline deepens by a record 70 m in late 2019. The deepened thermocline helps sustain the Indian Ocean warming through the 2020 summer. The Indian Ocean warming forces an anomalous anticyclone in the lower troposphere over the Indo-Northwest Pacific region and intensifies the upper-level westerly jet over East Asia, leading to heavy summer rainfall in the Yangtze Basin. These coupled ocean-atmosphere processes beyond the equatorial Pacific provide predictability. Indeed, dynamic models initialized with observed ocean state predicted the heavy summer rainfall in the Yangtze Basin as early as April 2020.


2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (17) ◽  
pp. 3428-3449 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert S. Fischer ◽  
Pascal Terray ◽  
Eric Guilyardi ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
Pascale Delecluse

Abstract The question of whether and how tropical Indian Ocean dipole or zonal mode (IOZM) interannual variability is independent of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the Pacific is addressed in a comparison of twin 200-yr runs of a coupled climate model. The first is a reference simulation, and the second has ENSO-scale variability suppressed with a constraint on the tropical Pacific wind stress. The IOZM can exist in the model without ENSO, and the composite evolution of the main anomalies in the Indian Ocean in the two simulations is virtually identical. Its growth depends on a positive feedback between anomalous equatorial easterly winds, upwelling equatorial and coastal Kelvin waves reducing the thermocline depth and sea surface temperature off the coast of Sumatra, and the atmospheric dynamical response to the subsequently reduced convection. Two IOZM triggers in the boreal spring are found. The first is an anomalous Hadley circulation over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent, with an early northward penetration of the Southern Hemisphere southeasterly trades. This situation grows out of cooler sea surface temperatures in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean left behind by a reinforcement of the late austral summer winds. The second trigger is a consequence of a zonal shift in the center of convection associated with a developing El Niño, a Walker cell anomaly. The first trigger is the only one present in the constrained simulation and is similar to the evolution of anomalies in 1994, when the IOZM occurred in the absence of a Pacific El Niño state. The presence of these two triggers—the first independent of ENSO and the second phase locking the IOZM to El Niño—allows an understanding of both the existence of IOZM events when Pacific conditions are neutral and the significant correlation between the IOZM and El Niño.


2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 213-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao He ◽  
Tianjun Zhou ◽  
Tim Li

Abstract The western North Pacific subtropical anticyclone (WNPAC) is the most prominent atmospheric circulation anomaly over the subtropical Northern Hemisphere during the decaying summer of an El Niño event. Based on a comparison between the RCP8.5 and the historical experiments of 30 coupled models from the CMIP5, we show evidence that the anomalous WNPAC during the El Niño–decaying summer is weaker in a warmer climate although the amplitude of the El Niño remains generally unchanged. The weakened impact of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) on the atmosphere is essential for the weakened anomalous WNPAC. In a warmer climate, the warm tropospheric temperature (TT) anomaly in the tropical free troposphere stimulated by the El Niño–related SSTA is enhanced through stronger moist adiabatic adjustment in a warmer mean state, even if the SSTA of El Niño is unchanged. But the amplitude of the warm SSTA over TIO remains generally unchanged in an El Niño–decaying summer, the static stability of the boundary layer over TIO is increased, and the positive rainfall anomaly over TIO is weakened. As a result, the warm Kelvin wave emanating from TIO is weakened because of a weaker latent heating anomaly over TIO, which is responsible for the weakened WNPAC anomaly. Numerical experiments support the weakened sensitivity of precipitation anomaly over TIO to local SSTA under an increase of mean-state SST and its essential role in the weakened anomalous WNPAC, independent of any change in the SSTA.


Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1605
Author(s):  
Mary T. Kayano ◽  
Wilmar L. Cerón ◽  
Rita V. Andreoli ◽  
Rodrigo A. F. Souza ◽  
Itamara P. Souza

Contrasting effects of the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans on the atmospheric circulation and rainfall interannual variations over South America during southern winter are assessed considering the effects of the warm Indian Ocean basin-wide (IOBW) and El Niño (EN) events, and of the cold IOBW and La Niña events, which are represented by sea surface temperature-based indices. Analyses are undertaken using total and partial correlations. When the effects of the two warm events are isolated from each other, the contrasts between the associated rainfall anomalies in most of South America become accentuated. In particular, EN relates to anomalous wet conditions, and the warm IOBW event to opposite conditions in extensive areas of the 5° S–25° S band. These effects in the 5° S–15° S sector are due to the anomalous regional Hadley cells, with rising motions in this band for the EN and sinking motions for the warm IOBW event. Meanwhile, in subtropical South America, the opposite effects of the EN and warm IOBW seem to be due to the presence of anomalous anticyclone and cyclone and associated moisture transport, respectively. These opposite effects of the warm IOBW and EN events on the rainfall in part of central South America might explain the weak rainfall relation in this region to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results emphasize the important role of the tropical Indian Ocean in the South American climate and environment during southern winter.


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