Numerical investigation of coastal circulation around India

A simple wind driven ocean circulation model with one active layer is used to simulate the coastal circulation around India. The close agreement of numerical results to that of the observed fields ind1cate the influence of wind on the coastal circulation. The northward currents along the west coast of India during winter months are dominated by remote forcing from Bay of Bengal; however the southward currents during summer months are less influenced by the remote forcing. The coastaly trapped Kelvin waves which give rise to the remote forcing response are found to be produced by the annual cycle in the local wind of the Bay of Bengal. Equatorial waves do not provide the correct phase of west coast circulation. The island chains of Maldive and Laccadive do not affect the model circulation significantly. But the exclusion of Sri Lanka from the model geometry significantly alters the circulation of southwestern Bay of Bengal during summer months. Some of these findings are already shown by sophisticated multilayer models, e.g., McCreary et al. 1993. However, some of these results are again reproduced here in order to highlight the significance of such simple model and hence the simple model is used for detail study.

Evidences and drivers of ocean deoxygenation off Peru over recent past decades

Deoxygenation is a major threat to the coastal ocean health as it impacts marine life and key biogeochemical cycles. Understanding its drivers is crucial in the thriving and highly exploited Peru upwelling system, where naturally low-oxygenated subsurface waters form the so-called oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), and a slight vertical shift in its upper limit may have a huge impact. Here we investigate the long-term deoxygenation trends in the upper part of the nearshore OMZ off Peru over the period 1970–2008. We use a unique set of dissolved oxygen in situ observations and several high-resolution regional dynamical-biogeochemical coupled model simulations. Both observation and model present a nearshore deoxygenation above 150 m depth, with a maximum trend of – 10 µmol kg−1 decade1, and a shoaling of the oxycline depth (− 6.4 m decade−1). Model sensitivity analysis shows that the modeled oxycline depth presents a non-significant (+ 0.9 m decade−1) trend when remote forcing is suppressed, while a significant oxycline shoaling (− 3 m decade−1) is obtained when the wind variability is suppressed. This indicates that the nearshore deoxygenation can be attributed to the slowdown of the near-equatorial eastward currents, which transport oxygen-rich waters towards the Peruvian shores. The large uncertainties in the estimation of this ventilation flux and the consequences for more recent and future deoxygenation trends are discussed.

Java-Sumatra Niño/Niña and associated regional rainfall variability

A phenomenon referred to here as Java-Sumatra Niño/Niña (JSN or JS Niño/Niña) is characterized by the appearance of warm/cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the coastal upwelling region off Java-Sumatra in the southeastern equatorial Indian Ocean. JSN develops in July-September and sometimes as a precursor to the Indian Ocean Dipole, but often without corresponding SSTAs in the western equatorial Indian Ocean. Although its spatiotemporal evolution varies considerably between individual events, JSN is essentially an intrinsic mode of variability driven by local atmosphere-ocean positive feedback, and thus does not rely on remote forcing from the Pacific for its emergence. JSN is an important driver of climate variability over the tropical Indian Ocean and the surrounding continents. Notably, JS Niña events developing in July-September project onto the South and Southeast Asian summer monsoons, increasing the probability of heavy rainfall and flooding across the most heavily populated regions of the world.

Influence of the North American Dipole on the Atlantic Warm Pool

The Atlantic warm pool(AWP) of water having a temperature above 28.5°C encompasses the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and the western tropical North Atlantic, influencing the regional and global climate. Much of the AWP interannual variabillity has been thought to be an outcome of external remote forcing by climate variability outside the tropical Atlantic, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This study indicates that the North American dipole (NAD), exemplified by a north-south seesaw in sea level pressure anomalies over the western tropical North Atlantic and northeastern North America, may provide another integral remote forcing source to influence the AWP. Both observational and model data prove that a strong positive (negative) phase of the winter NAD tends to inhibit (favor) the development of AWP in its area and depth in subsequent months. As opposed to the NAO, the NAD plays a more pivotal role in influencing the AWP due to its effectiveness in forcing the TNA SST variability, which means that AWP variability may be more of a lagging response to NAD atmospheric forcing than a lagging response to NAO atmospheric forcing. Additional analysis indicates that the winter NAD-like atmospheric signal may be stored in the following AWP, thus markedly influencing the TNA precipitation and air temperature in summer. It is speculated that the AWP may act as a bridge linking winter NAD to the following summer precipitation and air temperature in the TNA region.

Weakening Satellite Era and Future Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Variability

<p>Since 2000, a substantial weakening in the equatorial and southeastern tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability is observed. Observations and reanalysis products reveal, for example, that relative to 1982–1999, the March‐April‐May SST variability in the Angola‐Benguela area (ABA) has decreased by more than 30%. Both equatorial remote forcing and local forcing are known to play an important role in driving SST variability in the ABA. Here we show that compared to 1982–1999, since 2000, equatorial remote forcing had less influence on ABA SSTs, whereas local forcing has become more important. In particular, the robust correlation between the equatorial zonal wind stress and the ABA SSTs has substantially weakened, suggesting less influence of Kelvin waves on ABA SSTs. Moreover, the strong correlation linking the South Atlantic Anticyclone and the ABA SSTs has reduced. Multidecadal surface warming of the ABA could also have played a role in weakening the interannual SST variability.</p><p>To investigate future changes in tropical Atlantic SST variability, an ensemble of nested high-resolution coupled model simulations under the global warming scenario RCP8.5 is analyzed. SST variability in both the ABA and equatorial cold tongue is found to decrease along with reduced western equatorial Atlantic zonal wind variability.  </p>

Correlation between subsurface salinity anomalies in the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean Dipole and governing mechanisms

Lead–lag correlations between the subsurface temperature and salinity anomalies in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are revealed in model results, ocean synthesis, and observations. Mechanisms for such correlations are further investigated using the Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM), mainly relating to the salinity variability. It is found that the subsurface salinity anomaly of the BoB positively correlates to the IOD, with a lag of 3 months on average, while the subsurface temperature anomaly correlates negatively. The model results suggest the remote forcing from the equatorial Indian Ocean dominates the interannual subsurface salinity variability in the BoB. The coastal Kelvin waves carry signals of positive (negative) salinity anomalies from the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and propagate counterclockwise along the coasts of the BoB during positive (negative) IOD events. Subsequently, westward Rossby waves propagate these signals to the basin at a relatively slow speed, which causes a considerable delay of the subsurface salinity anomalies in the correlation. By analyzing the salinity budget of the BoB, it is found that diffusion dominates the salinity changes near the surface, while advection dominates the subsurface; the vertical advection of salinity contributes positively to this correlation, while the horizontal advection contributes negatively. These results suggest that the IOD plays a crucial role in the interannual subsurface salinity variability in the BoB.