Projected changes in surface solar radiation in CMIP5 global climate models and in EURO-CORDEX regional climate models for Europe

AbstractFuture climate warming is virtually certain to bring about an increase in the frequency of heat extremes. Highway design and pavement selection are based on a temperature regime that reflects the local climate zone. Increasing heat extremes could, therefore, shift some areas into a different performance grade (PG) for pavement, and more-heat-resistant materials are associated with increased infrastructure costs. This study combines observations, output from global climate models, and a statistical model to investigate changes in 20-yr return values of extreme maximum pavement temperature TPmax. From a multimodel range of simulated TPmax, future changes in PG are computed for 17 major Canadian cities. Relative to a 1981–2000 baseline, summertime Canada-wide warming of 1°–3°C is projected for 2041–70. As a result, climate change is likely to bring about profound changes to the spatial distribution of PG, with the severity of the changes directly linked to the severity of the projected warming. Even under weak simulated warming, an increase in PG is projected for greater Toronto, which is Canada’s largest urban area; under moderate (strong) warming 7 of 17 (9 of 17) major cities exhibit an increase. The influence of model spatial resolution is evaluated by comparing the results from global climate models with output from a set of regional climate models focused on North America. With the exception of mountainous terrain in western Canada, spatial resolution is not a major determining factor for projections of future PG changes.

Download Full-text

A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Heterogeneous RCM–GCM Multimodel Ensembles*

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-14-00606.1 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 28 (15) ◽

pp. 6249-6266 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Christian Kerkhoff ◽

Hans R. Künsch ◽

Christoph Schär

Keyword(s):

Hierarchical Model ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Bayesian Hierarchical Model ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Seasonal Temperature ◽

Bayesian Hierarchical ◽

Multimodel Ensembles

Abstract A Bayesian hierarchical model for heterogeneous multimodel ensembles of global and regional climate models is presented. By applying the methodology herein to regional and seasonal temperature averages from the ENSEMBLES project, probabilistic projections of future climate are derived. Intermodel correlations that are particularly strong between regional climate models and their driving global climate models are explicitly accounted for. Instead of working with time slices, a data archive is investigated in a transient setting. This enables a coherent treatment of internal variability on multidecadal time scales. Results are presented for four European regions to highlight the feasibility of the approach. In particular, the methodology is able to objectively identify patterns of variability changes, in ways that previously required subjective expert knowledge. Furthermore, this study underlines that assumptions about bias changes have an effect on the projected warming. It is also shown that validating the out-of-sample predictive performance is possible on short-term prediction horizons and that the hierarchical model herein is competitive. Additionally, the findings indicate that instead of running a large suite of regional climate models all forced by the same driver, priority should be given to a rich diversity of global climate models that force a number of regional climate models in the experimental design of future multimodel ensembles.

Download Full-text

Changes in extreme surface solar radiation in EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16536 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Blanka Bartok

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Power Generation ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Solar Energy ◽

Electricity Generation ◽

Climate Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Surface Solar Radiation ◽

The Impact

As solar energy share is showing a significant growth in the European electricity generation system, assessments regarding long-term variation of this variable related to climate change are becoming more and more relevant for this sector. Several studies analysed the impact of climate change on the solar energy sector in Europe (Jerez et al, 2015) finding light impact (-14%; +2%) in terms of mean surface solar radiation. The present study focuses on extreme values, namely on the distribution of low surface solar radiation (overcast situation) and high surface solar radiation (clear sky situation), since the frequencies of these situations have high impact on electricity generation.The study considers 11 high-resolution (0.11 deg) bias-corrected climate projections from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble with 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) downscaled by 6 Regional Climate Models (RCMs).Changes in extreme surface solar radiation frequencies show different regional patterns over Europe.The study also includes a case study determining the changes in solar power generation induced by the extreme situations.&#160;&#160;Jerez et al (2015): The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe, Nature Communications 6(1):10014, 10.1038/ncomms10014&#160;

Download Full-text

Numerical simulation of surface solar radiation over Southern Africa. Part 1: Evaluation of regional and global climate models

Climate Dynamics ◽

10.1007/s00382-018-4143-1 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 52 (1-2) ◽

pp. 457-477 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Chao Tang ◽

Béatrice Morel ◽

Martin Wild ◽

Benjamin Pohl ◽

Babatunde Abiodun ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Numerical Simulation ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Southern Africa ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Surface Solar Radiation

Download Full-text

Streamflow in the upper Mississippi river basin as simulated by SWAT driven by 20th Century contemporary results of global climate models and NARCCAP regional climate models

Meteorologische Zeitschrift ◽

10.1127/0941-2948/2010/0464 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 19 (4) ◽

pp. 341-346 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Eugene S. Takle ◽

Manoj Jha ◽

Er Lu ◽

Raymond W. Arritt ◽

William J. Gutowski

Keyword(s):

20Th Century ◽

River Basin ◽

Mississippi River ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Upper Mississippi River ◽

Upper Mississippi River Basin

Download Full-text

Stochastic Rainfall Downscaling of Climate Models

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm-d-13-096.1 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 15 (2) ◽

pp. 830-843 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

D. D’Onofrio ◽

E. Palazzi ◽

J. von Hardenberg ◽

A. Provenzale ◽

S. Calmanti

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Amplitude Distribution ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Added Value ◽

Small Scale ◽

Physically Based ◽

Stochastic Downscaling

Abstract Precipitation extremes and small-scale variability are essential drivers in many climate change impact studies. However, the spatial resolution currently achieved by global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) is still insufficient to correctly identify the fine structure of precipitation intensity fields. In the absence of a proper physically based representation, this scale gap can be at least temporarily bridged by adopting a stochastic rainfall downscaling technique. In this work, a precipitation downscaling chain is introduced where the global 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) (at about 120-km resolution) is dynamically downscaled using the Protheus RCM at 30-km resolution. The RCM precipitation is then further downscaled using a stochastic downscaling technique, the Rainfall Filtered Autoregressive Model (RainFARM), which has been extended for application to long climate simulations. The application of the stochastic downscaling technique directly to the larger-scale reanalysis field at about 120-km resolution is also discussed. To assess the ability of this approach in reproducing the main statistical properties of precipitation, the downscaled model results are compared with the precipitation data provided by a dense network of 122 rain gauges in northwestern Italy, in the time period from 1958 to 2001. The high-resolution precipitation fields obtained by stochastically downscaling the RCM outputs reproduce well the seasonality and amplitude distribution of the observed precipitation during most of the year, including extreme events and variance. In addition, the RainFARM outputs compare more favorably to observations when the procedure is applied to the RCM output rather than to the global reanalyses, highlighting the added value of reaching high enough resolution with a dynamical model.

Download Full-text

Prediction vs. Performance of IDF Curves from Precipitation Data of Regional Climate Models for a Brazilian Coastal County

10.20944/preprints201804.0055.v1 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Daniela Martins ◽

Nadiane Smaha Kruk ◽

Paulo Ivo Braga de Queiroz ◽

Wilson Cabral de Souza Júnior ◽

Gabriele Vanessa Tschöke

Keyword(s):

Climate Changes ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Control Period ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Precipitation Data ◽

Drainage Systems ◽

Idf Curves

Drainage systems are usually dimensioned for design storms based on intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves of extreme precipitation. For each location, different IDF curves are established based on local hydrological conditions. Recent research shows that these curves also vary with time, and should be updated with recent data. The purpose of this study is to evaluate IDF curves obtained from precipitation simulations from the Eta RCM, comparing them with IDF curves obtained from data of a rainfall station. Climate models can be a useful tool for assessing the impacts of climate changes on drainage systems, referring precipitation forecasts. In this study, the Eta RCM was forced by two global climate models: HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5. The bias of the precipitation data, generated by RCM models, was corrected using a Gamma distribution. The Juqueriquerê River Basin, in the cities of Caraguatatuba and São Sebastião, São Paulo State, Brazil, was chosen as a case study. The results show a good correlation between the IDF curves of simulated and observed rainfall for the control period (1960-2005), indicating the strong possibility of using the Eta RCM precipitation forecasts for 2007 - 2099 to establish future IDFs thereby, taking into account climate changes in urban drainage design.

Download Full-text

Spatio-temporal trends of hydrological components: the case of the Tafna basin (northwestern Algeria)

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2021.242 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Amina Mami ◽

Djilali Yebdri ◽

Sabine Sauvage ◽

Mélanie Raimonet ◽

José Miguel

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Global Climate ◽

Swat Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

The Future

Abstract Climate change is expected to increase in the future in the Mediterranean region, including Algeria. The Tafna basin, vulnerable to drought, is one of the most important catchments ensuring water self-sufficiency in northwestern Algeria. The objective of this study is to estimate the evolution of hydrological components of the Tafna basin, throughout 2020–2099, comparing to the period 1981–2000. The SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), calibrated and validated on the Tafna basin with good Nash at the outlet 0.82, is applied to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of hydrological components, over the basin throughout 2020–2099. The application is produced using a precipitation and temperature minimum/maximum of an ensemble of climate model outputs obtained from a combination of eight global climate models and two regional climate models of Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment project. The results of this study show that the decrease of precipitation in January, on average −25%, ranged between −5% and −44% in the future. This diminution affects all of the water components and fluxes of a watershed, namely, in descending order of impact: the river discharge causing a decrease −36%, the soil water available −31%, the evapotranspiration −30%, and the lateral flow −29%.

Download Full-text

Numerical simulation of surface solar radiation over Southern Africa. Part 2: projections of regional and global climate models

Climate Dynamics ◽

10.1007/s00382-019-04817-x ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 53 (3-4) ◽

pp. 2197-2227 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Chao Tang ◽

Béatrice Morel ◽

Martin Wild ◽

Benjamin Pohl ◽

Babatunde Abiodun ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Numerical Simulation ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Southern Africa ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Surface Solar Radiation

Download Full-text

Effect of Model Resolution on Intense and Extreme Precipitationinthe Mediterranean Region

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11070699 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (7) ◽

pp. 699

Author(s):

Dario Conte ◽

Silvio Gualdi ◽

Piero Lionello

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Mediterranean Region ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Total Precipitation ◽

Model Resolution

This study explores the role of model resolution on the simulation of precipitation and on the estimate of its future change in the Mediterranean region. It compares the results of two regional climate models (RCMs, with two different horizontal grid resolutions, 0.44 and 0.11 degs, covering the whole Mediterranean region) and of the global climate model (GCM, 0.75 degs) that has provided the boundary conditions for them. The regional climate models include an interactive oceanic component with a resolution of 1/16 degs. The period 1960–2100 and the representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are considered. The results show that, in the present climate, increasing resolution increases total precipitation and its extremes over steep orography, while it has the opposite effect over flat areas and the sea. Considering climate change, in all simulations, total precipitation will decrease over most of the considered domain except at the northern boundary, where it will increase. Extreme precipitation will increase over most of the northern Mediterranean region and decrease over the sea and some southern areas. Further, the overall probability of precipitation (frequency of wet days) significantly decreases over most of the region, but wet days will be characterized with precipitation intensity higher than the present. Our analysis shows that: (1) these projected changes are robust with respect to the considered range of model resolution; (2) increasing the resolution (within the considered resolution range) decreases the magnitude of these climate change effects. However, it is likely that resolution plays a less important role than other factors, such as the different physics of regional and global climate models. It remains to be investigated whether further increasing the resolution (and reaching the scale explicitly permitting convection) would change this conclusion.

Download Full-text