Changes in extreme surface solar radiation in EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Blanka Bartok
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Power Generation ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
The Impact

<p>As solar energy share is showing a significant growth in the European electricity generation system, assessments regarding long-term variation of this variable related to climate change are becoming more and more relevant for this sector. Several studies analysed the impact of climate change on the solar energy sector in Europe (Jerez et al, 2015) finding light impact (-14%; +2%) in terms of mean surface solar radiation. The present study focuses on extreme values, namely on the distribution of low surface solar radiation (overcast situation) and high surface solar radiation (clear sky situation), since the frequencies of these situations have high impact on electricity generation.</p><p>The study considers 11 high-resolution (0.11 deg) bias-corrected climate projections from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble with 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) downscaled by 6 Regional Climate Models (RCMs).</p><p>Changes in extreme surface solar radiation frequencies show different regional patterns over Europe.</p><p>The study also includes a case study determining the changes in solar power generation induced by the extreme situations.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p>Jerez et al (2015): The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe, Nature Communications 6(1):10014, 10.1038/ncomms10014</p><p> </p>

Evaluating the effect of climate change on snow load on structures

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pietro Croce ◽  
Paolo Formichi ◽  
Filippo Landi ◽  
Francesca Marsili
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Greenhouse Gasses ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact

<p>As consequence of global warming extreme weather events might become more frequent and severe across the globe. The evaluation of the impact of climate change on extremes is then a crucial issue for the resilience of infrastructures and buildings and is a key challenge for adaptation planning. In this paper, a suitable procedure for the estimation of future trends of climatic actions is presented starting from the output of regional climate models and taking into account the uncertainty in the model itself. In particular, the influence of climate change on ground snow loads is discussed in detail and the typical uncertainty range is determined applying an innovative algorithm for weather generation. Considering different greenhouse gasses emission scenarios, some results are presented for the Italian Mediterranean region proving the ability of the method to define factors of change for climate extremes also allowing a sound estimate of the uncertainty range associated with different models.</p>

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on Material Degradation Criteria in Heritage over Iran: Regional Climate Model Evaluation

2020 ◽  
Vol 172 ◽  
pp. 02006
Author(s):  
Hamed Hedayatnia ◽  
Marijke Steeman ◽  
Nathan Van Den Bossche
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Salt Crystallization ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
The Impact

Understanding how climate change accelerates or slows down the process of material deterioration is the first step towards assessing adaptive approaches for the preservation of historical heritage. Analysis of the climate change effects on the degradation risk assessment parameters like salt crystallization cycles is of crucial importance when considering mitigating actions. Due to the vulnerability of cultural heritage in Iran to climate change, the impact of this phenomenon on basic parameters plus variables more critical to building damage like salt crystallization index needs to be analyzed. Regional climate modelling projections can be used to asses the impact of climate change effects on heritage. The output of two different regional climate models, the ALARO-0 model (Ghent University-RMI, Belgium) and the REMO model (HZG-GERICS, Germany), is analyzed to find out which model is more adapted to the region. So the focus of this research is mainly on the evaluation to determine the reliability of both models over the region. For model validation, a comparison between model data and observations was performed in 4 different climate zones for 30 years to find out how reliable these models are in the field of building pathology.

scholarly journals Chilling accumulation in fruit trees in Spain under climate change

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 1087-1103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfredo Rodríguez ◽  
David Pérez-López ◽  
Enrique Sánchez ◽  
Ana Centeno ◽  
Iñigo Gómara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Fruit Trees ◽  
Calculation Model ◽  
Cold Temperatures ◽  
Tree Crops ◽  
Chilling Requirements ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Growing trees are quite vulnerable to cold temperatures. To minimise the effect of these cold temperatures, they stop their growth over the coldest months of the year, a state called dormancy. In particular, endodormancy requires accumulating chilling temperatures to finish this sort of dormancy. The accumulation of cool temperatures according to specific rules is called chilling accumulation, and each tree species and variety has specific chilling requirements for correct plant development. Under global warming, it is expected that the fulfilment of the chilling requirements to break dormancy in fruit trees could be compromised. In this study, the impact of climate change on the chilling accumulation over peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands was assessed. For this purpose, bias-adjusted results of 10 regional climate models (RCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 were used as inputs of four different models for calculating chilling accumulation, and the results for each model were individually compared for the 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 future periods under both RCPs. These results project a generalised reduction in chilling accumulation regardless of the RCP, future period or chilling calculation model used, with higher reductions for the 2071–2100 period and the RCP8.5 scenario. The projected winter chill decrease may threaten the viability of some tree crops and varieties in some areas where the crop is currently grown, but also shows scope for varieties with lower chilling requirements. The results are relevant for planning future tree plantations under climate change, supporting adaptation of spatial distribution of tree crops and varieties in Spain.

scholarly journals Assessment of climate change impact on hydrology of a transboundary river of Bhutan and India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phub Zam ◽  
Sangam Shrestha ◽  
Aakanchya Budhathoki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Transboundary River ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Assessing the impacts of climate change on a transboundary river plays an important role in sustaining water security within as well as beyond the national boundaries. At times, the unilateral decision taken by one country can increase the risk of negative effect on the riparian countries and if the impact is felt strongly by the other country, it can lead to international tension between them. This study examines the impact of climate change on hydrology between a shared river which is Wangchu river in Bhutan and Raidak river in India. The river is mainly used to produce hydropower in the two largest hydropower plants on which the majority of Bhutan's economic development depends and is mainly used for agriculture in India. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for future flow simulation. Future climate was projected for near future (NF) from 2025–2050 and far future (FF) from 2074–2099 using an ensemble of three regional climate models (ACCESS, CNRM-CM5 and MPI-ESM-LR) for two RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenario. The ensemble results indicated that, in future, the study area would become warmer with temperature increase of 1.5 °C under RCP 4.5 and 3.6 °C under RCP 8.5. However, as per RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, rainfall over the study area is projected to decrease by 1.90% and 1.38% respectively. As a consequence of the projected decrease in rainfall, the flow in river is projected to decrease by 5.77% under RCP 4.5 and 4.73% under RCP 8.5. Overall, the results indicated that the degree of hydrological change is expected to be higher, particularly for low flows in both Wangchu and Raidak River. Since transboundary water is a shared for economic growth, climate change adaptation and opportunities should also be considered by both the nations for better water management.

scholarly journals Using a Hydrologic Model to Assess the Performance of Regional Climate Models in a Semi-Arid Watershed in Brazil

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Santos ◽  
Felizardo. Rocha ◽  
Tiago Ramos ◽  
Lincoln Alves ◽  
Marcos Mateus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

This study assessed the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Paraguaçu river basin, northeastern Brazil. Hydrological impact simulations were conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for 2020–2040. Precipitation and surface air temperature projections from two Regional Climate Models (Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) based on IPCC5—RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used as inputs after first applying two bias correction methods (linear scaling—LS and distribution mapping—DM). The analysis of the impact of climate change on streamflow was done by comparing the maximum, average and reference (Q90) flows of the simulated and observed streamflow records. This study found that both methods were able to correct the climate projection bias, but the DM method showed larger distortion when applied to future scenarios. Climate projections from the Eta-HadGEM2-ES (LS) model showed significant reductions of mean monthly streamflow for all time periods under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The Eta-MIROC5 (LS) model showed a lower reduction of the simulated mean monthly streamflow under RCP 4.5 and a decrease of streamflow under RCP 8.5, similar to the Eta-HadGEM2-ES model results. The results of this study provide information for guiding future water resource management in the Paraguaçu River Basin and show that the bias correction algorithm also plays a significant role when assessing climate model estimates and their applicability to hydrological modelling.

scholarly journals An ensemble approach to assess hydrological models' contribution to uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 7441-7474 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. A. Velázquez ◽  
J. Schmid ◽  
S. Ricard ◽  
M. J. Muerth ◽  
B. Gauvin St-Denis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Structural Complexity ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Distributed Models ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Over the recent years, several research efforts investigated the impact of climate change on water resources for different regions of the world. The projection of future river flows is affected by different sources of uncertainty in the hydro-climatic modelling chain. One of the aims of the QBic3 project (Québec-Bavarian International Collaboration on Climate Change) is to assess the contribution to uncertainty of hydrological models by using an ensemble of hydrological models presenting a diversity of structural complexity (i.e. lumped, semi distributed and distributed models). The study investigates two humid, mid-latitude catchments with natural flow conditions; one located in Southern Québec (Canada) and one in Southern Bavaria (Germany). Daily flow is simulated with four different hydrological models, forced by outputs from regional climate models driven by a given number of GCMs' members over a reference (1971–2000) and a future (2041–2070) periods. The results show that the choice of the hydrological model does strongly affect the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows. Indicators related to high flows seem less sensitive on the choice of the hydrological model. Therefore, the computationally less demanding models (usually simple, lumped and conceptual) give a significant level of trust for high and overall mean flows.

scholarly journals Review of Surface Solar Radiation Projections in Bias-Corrected Euro-Cordex Regional Climate Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 60 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-13
Author(s):  
Blanka Bartók
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Seasonal Time Scale

AbstractRegional climate models (RCMs) are used in a wide range of climate applications as they can provide high resolution (up to 10 to 20 km or less) and multi-decadal simulations of the climate system describing climate feedback mechanisms acting at the regional scale. However due to different forcing data and physics parametrisations regional climate models might produce different results. This study aims to achieve a state-of-the-art knowledge of bias-corrected surface solar radiation projections coming from 11 EURO-CORDEX regional climate models. First a comparison against 63 GEBA observations is elaborated indicating a general overestimation of surface solar radiation (SSR) in the RCMs by 6.12 W/m2 (4.4%). Next changes in surface radiation between the period of 2031-2060 and 1971-2000 are presented on annual and seasonal time scale. The model projections indicate robust increase in SSR mainly in the western part of the Mediterranean region, while the northern part of the continent is characterised by decreases in SSR till the middle of this century. The study emphasis the need of an overall validation of different climate models before introducing them in impact studies in order to have an overview regarding the uncertainties.

scholarly journals Gains and losses in surface solar radiation with dynamic aerosols in regional climate simulations for Europe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Jerez ◽  
Laura Palacios-Peña ◽  
Claudia Gutiérrez ◽  
Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero ◽  
Jose María López-Romero ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Atmospheric Aerosol ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Gains And Losses

Abstract. The solar resource can be highly influenced by clouds and atmospheric aerosol, which has been named by the IPCC as the most uncertainty climate forcing agent. Nonetheless, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) hardly ever model dynamically atmospheric aerosol concentration and their interaction with radiation and clouds, in contrast to Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The objective of this work is to evince the role of the interactively modeling of aerosol concentrations and their interactions with radiation and clouds in Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations with a focus on summer mean surface downward solar radiation (RSDS) and over Europe. The results show that the response of RSDS is mainly led by the aerosol effects on cloudiness, which explain well the differences between the experiments in which aerosol-radiation and aerosol-radiation-cloud interactions are taken into account or not. Under present climate, a reduction about 5% in RSDS was found when aerosols are dynamically solved by the RCM, which is larger when only aerosol-radiation interactions are considered. However, for future projections, the inclusion of aerosol-radiation-cloud interactions results in the most negative RSDS change pattern (while with slight values), showing noticeable differences with the projections from either the other RCM experiments or from their driving GCM (which do hold some significant positive signals). Differences in RSDS among experiments are much more softer under clear-sky conditions.

scholarly journals Modeling the impact of climate change on streamflow and major hydrological components of an Iranian Wadi system

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nariman Mahmoodi ◽  
Paul D. Wagner ◽  
Jens Kiesel ◽  
Nicola Fohrer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Climate change has pronounced impacts on water resources, especially in arid regions. This study aims at assessing the impacts of climate change on streamflow of the Wadi Halilrood Basin which feeds the Jazmorian wetland in southeastern Iran. To simulate streamflow and hydrological components in the future periods (2030–2059 and 2070–2099), projections for the emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from 11 global-regional climate models and two bias correction methods are used as input data for a hydrologic model that represents the daily streamflow with good accuracy (NSE: 0.76, PBIAS: 4.7, KGE: 0.87). The results indicate a slight increase of streamflow in January and March, due to the higher intensity of precipitation. However, according to the predicted flow duration curves, a decrease for high and very high flow and no remarkable changes for middle, low and very low flow is found under both emission scenarios for both future periods. Compared to the simulated hydrological components for the baseline, a slight increase of evapotranspiration of around 6 mm (4%) and 2 mm (&lt;2%) for the mid- and end of the century is estimated, respectively. Moreover, a substantial drop of water yield of around 36 mm (63%) at mid-century and 39 mm (69%) at the end of the century are projected.

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