Partial least regression approach to forecast the East Asian winter monsoon using Eurasian snow cover and sea surface temperature

2017 ◽  
Vol 51 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 4573-4584 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lulu Yu ◽  
Zhiwei Wu ◽  
Renhe Zhang ◽  
Xin Yang
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
East Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Winter Monsoon ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
Eurasian Snow ◽  
Regression Approach

scholarly journals Supplemental Material: An intensified East Asian winter monsoon in the Japan Sea between 7.9 and 6.6 Ma

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenji Matsuzaki ◽  
et al.
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
East Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Japan Sea ◽  
Winter Monsoon ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
The Japan Sea

Details of the method used to estimate radiolarian-based sea-surface temperature.<br>

scholarly journals Impacts of the East Asian Winter Monsoon and Local Sea Surface Temperature on Heavy Snowfall over the Yeongdong Region

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (20) ◽  
pp. 6783-6802 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jineun Kim ◽  
Donghyuck Yoon ◽  
Dong-Hyun Cha ◽  
Yonghan Choi ◽  
Joowan Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
East Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Winter Monsoon ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Heavy Snowfall ◽  
Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
Sensitivity Experiments ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract This research investigates the impact of local sea surface temperature (SST) on the 2-month (January and February) accumulated snowfall over the Yeongdong (YD) region. The YD region is strongly affected by synoptic-scale factors such as the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). The relationships of snowfall over the YD region to the EAWM and local SST are examined based on observational analyses and sensitivity experiments using a regional climate model. In the sensitivity experiments, local SST is replaced with the 33-yr mean winter SST (1982–2014). The observational analysis shows that both the synoptic environment and local SST are important factors for the occurrence of anomalous heavy snowfall over the YD region. The favorable synoptic environments can be characterized by eastward expansion of the Siberian high over Manchuria and corresponding enhancement of easterly anomalies over the YD region. These conditions are more frequently observed during the weak EAWM years than during the strong EAWM. Furthermore, warm SST over the East Sea contributes to heavy snowfall over the YD region by providing heat and moisture in the lower troposphere, which are important sources of energy for the formation of heavy snowfall. Warm SST anomalies over the East Sea enhance low-level moisture convergence over the YD region, while cold SST anomalies lead to reduced moisture convergence. Sensitivity experiments indicate that local SST can significantly affect snowfall amount over the YD region when the synoptic environments are favorable. However, without these synoptic conditions (expansion of the Siberian high and easterly inflow), the impact of local SST on the snowfall over the YD region is not significant.

scholarly journals A Skillful Prediction Model for Winter NAO Based on Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Eurasian Snow Cover

2015 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 197-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baoqiang Tian ◽  
Ke Fan
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Interdecadal Variability ◽  
Eurasian Snow Cover ◽  
Eurasian Snow

Abstract A new statistical forecast scheme, referred to as scheme 1, is developed using observed autumn Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and Eurasian snow cover in the preceding autumn to predict the upcoming winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) using the year-to-year increment prediction approach (i.e., DY approach). Two predictors for the year-to-year increment are identified that are available in the preceding autumn. Cross-validation tests for the period 1950–2011 and independent hindcasts for the period 1990–2011 are performed to validate the prediction ability of the proposed technique. The cross-validation test results for 1950–2011 reveal a high correlation coefficient of 0.52 (0.58) between the predicted and observed NAO indices (DY of the NAO). The model also successfully predicts the independent hindcasts for the period 1990–2011 with a correlation coefficient of 0.55 (0.74). In addition, scheme 0 (i.e., anomaly approach) is established using the SST and snow cover anomalies during the preceding autumn. Compared with scheme 0, this new prediction model has higher predictive skill in reproducing the interdecadal variability of NAO. Therefore, this study provides an effective climate prediction scheme for the interannual and interdecadal variability of NAO in boreal winter.

scholarly journals Impact of Autumn-Winter Tibetan Plateau Snow Cover Anomalies on the East Asian Winter Monsoon and Its Interdecadal Change

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhang Chen ◽  
Renguang Wu ◽  
Zhibiao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
East Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Winter Monsoon ◽  
Interdecadal Change ◽  
Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
The North ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies

The present study investigates the impacts of autumn-winter Tibetan Plateau (TP) snow cover anomalies on the interannual variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). It is found that the northern component of EAWM is significantly associated with October-November-December-January (ONDJ) snow cover anomalies over the eastern TP, whereas the TP snow cover changes have little impact on the southern component of EAWM. However, the relationship of the northern component of EAWM to ONDJ TP snow cover experienced an obvious change in the mid-1990s. During 1979–1998, due to the high persistence of TP snow anomalies from autumn to winter, extensive ONDJ TP snow cover anomalies have a prominent influence on atmospheric circulation over Asia and the North Pacific, with more TP snow cover followed by an enhanced Siberian high and a deepened Aleutian low in winter, resulting in stronger EAWM. During 1999–2016, TP snow cover anomalies have a weak persistence. The atmospheric circulation anomalies display a different distribution. As such, there is a weak connection between the northern component of EAWM and the TP snow cover anomalies during this period.

scholarly journals Distinguishing Interannual Variations of the Northern and Southern Modes of the East Asian Winter Monsoon

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 835-851 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhang Chen ◽  
Renguang Wu ◽  
Wen Chen
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
East Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Winter Monsoon ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM)-related climate anomalies have shown large year-to-year variations in both the intensity and the meridional extent. The present study distinguishes the interannual variations of the low-latitude and mid- to high-latitude components of the EAWM to gain a better understanding of the characteristics and factors for the EAWM variability. Through composite analysis based on two indices representing the northern and southern components (modes) of the EAWM variability, the present study clearly reveals features unique to the northern and southern mode. The northern mode is associated with changes in the mid- to high-latitude circulation systems, including the Siberian high, the Aleutian low, the East Asian trough, and the East Asian westerly jet stream, whereas the southern mode is closely related to circulation changes over the global tropics, the North Atlantic, and North America. A strong northern mode is accompanied by positive, negative, and positive surface temperature anomalies in the Indochina Peninsula, midlatitude Asia, and northeast Russia, respectively. A strong southern mode features lower temperature over tropics and higher temperature over mid- to high-latitude Asia. While the southern mode is closely related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the northern mode does not show an obvious relation to the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) change or to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the interannual time scale. Distinct snow cover and sea ice changes appear as responses to wind and surface temperature changes associated with the two modes and their effects on the EAWM variability need to be investigated in the future.

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