Long-term trends in Arctic surface temperature and potential causality over the last 100 years

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 1443-1456 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haixia Xiao ◽  
Feng Zhang ◽  
Lijuan Miao ◽  
X. San Liang ◽  
Kun Wu ◽  
...  
Ocean Science ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 491-501 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. I. Shapiro ◽  
D. L. Aleynik ◽  
L. D. Mee

Abstract. There is growing understanding that recent deterioration of the Black Sea ecosystem was partly due to changes in the marine physical environment. This study uses high resolution 0.25° climatology to analyze sea surface temperature variability over the 20th century in two contrasting regions of the sea. Results show that the deep Black Sea was cooling during the first three quarters of the century and was warming in the last 15–20 years; on aggregate there was a statistically significant cooling trend. The SST variability over the Western shelf was more volatile and it does not show statistically significant trends. The cooling of the deep Black Sea is at variance with the general trend in the North Atlantic and may be related to the decrease of westerly winds over the Black Sea, and a greater influence of the Siberian anticyclone. The timing of the changeover from cooling to warming coincides with the regime shift in the Black Sea ecosystem.


Author(s):  
S. H. Coombs ◽  
C. E. Mitchell

The distribution, abundance and seasonal occurrence of larvae of mackerel (Scomber scombrus L.) are described from routine Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) sampling around the British Isles over the period 1948–78, and from more intensive CPR sampling in the Celtic Sea in 1977. There were two main areas of larval concentration: in the North Sea and over and adjacent to the Celtic Plateau; subsidiary aggregations were observed to the northwest of Ireland and to the west of Norway. There were some similarities between the distribution of larvae around the British Isles and that of adult Calanus spp. In the North Sea there was a southerly shift of larval distribution over the period 1948–77; over a similar period the abundance of larvae increased to reach high numbers by the late 1950s and subsequently declined after the mid-6os. To the south-west of the British Isles numbers of larvae showed a long-term decline. The long-term trends of distribution and abundance are discussed in relation to concurrent biological and environmental change. The clearest relationship was found between the numbers of mackerel larvae in the North Sea and sea-surface temperature in the North Atlantic, which suggests a common causative agent for both sets of observations; also, there was a weak relationship with both spawning stock biomass and sea-surface temperature at the spawning areas. In the North Sea the seasonal occurrence of larvae was from May to August, the majority being taken in June and July; over the period 1948–77 the seasonal time of occurrence of highest numbers of larvae has remained relatively constant. In the Celtic Sea the seasonal occurrence of larvae was spread over a longer period, from March to August, with relatively high numbers from March to June; over the period 1950–78 the time of occurrence has been variable, possibly with a tendency towards later timing in more recent years.


2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-119
Author(s):  
G. I. Shapiro ◽  
D. L. Aleynik ◽  
L. D. Mee

Abstract. There is growing understanding that recent deterioration of the Black Sea ecosystem was partly due to changes in the marine physical environment. This study uses high resolution 0.25° climatology to analyze sea surface temperature variability over the 20th century in two contrasting regions of the sea. Results show that the deep Black Sea was cooling during the first three quarters of the century and was warming in the last 15–20 years; on aggregate there was a statistically significant cooling trend. The SST variability over the Western shelf was more volatile and it does not show statistically significant trends. The cooling of the deep Black Sea is at variance with the general trend in the North Atlantic and may be related to the decrease of westerly winds over the Black Sea, and a greater influence of the Siberian anticyclone. The timing of the changeover from cooling to warming coincides with the regime shift in the Black Sea ecosystem.


2019 ◽  
Vol 60 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-39
Author(s):  
Ivana Violić ◽  
Davor Lučić ◽  
Ivona Milić Beran ◽  
Vesna Mačić ◽  
Branka Pestorić ◽  
...  

A semi- quantitative time series (2013-2017) was used to present the recent events of scyphomedusae appearance and abundance in the Boka Kotorska Bay, Montenegro, Southeast Adriatic. Six meroplanktonic species were recorded: Aurelia spp, Chrysaora hysoscella, Cotylorhiza tuberculata ̧ Discomedusa lobata, Drymonema dalmatinum and Rhizostoma pulmo. Among them, C. hysoscella and D. lobata dominated in the water column during winter and spring, forming dense aggregations in March and May, and February to May, respectively. Our description of the D. lobata blooms are actually the first known records of blooms for this species. C. tuberculata was observed in the Bay principally in August and September. The bloom was occurred only in 2017, being the first information of C. tuberculata mass appearance in this area. We hypothesized that global warming phenomena could trigger the observed changes, and in this respect, long-term trends of sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations were analysed. The scyphomedusae blooms coincided with high positive SST anomalies, noted in the last seven years for this area. To better understand the mechanisms underlying changes in their phenology and abundance, detailed studies on benthic stages in the Bay are essential.


2013 ◽  
Vol 118 (20) ◽  
pp. 11,770-11,776 ◽  
Author(s):  
James R. Laing ◽  
Philip K. Hopke ◽  
Eleanor F. Hopke ◽  
Liaquat Husain ◽  
Vincent A. Dutkiewicz ◽  
...  

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (7) ◽  
pp. 1480-1489 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather Cannaby ◽  
Y. Sinan Hüsrevoğlu

Abstract Cannaby, H., and Hüsrevoğlu, Y. S. 2009. The influence of low-frequency variability and long-term trends in North Atlantic sea surface temperature on Irish waters. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1480–1489. Sea surface temperature (SST) time-series collected in Irish waters between 1850 and 2007 exhibit a warming trend averaging 0.3°C. The strongest warming has occurred since 1994, with the warmest years in the record being 2005, 2006, and 2007. The warming trend is superimposed on significant interannual to multidecadal-scale variability, linked to basin-scale oscillations of the ocean–atmosphere system. The dominant modes of low-frequency variability in North Atlantic SST records, investigated using an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, correspond to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, respectively, accounting for 23, 16, and 9% of the total variance in the dataset. Interannual variability in Irish SST records is dominated by the AMO, which, currently in its warm phase, explains approximately half of the current warm anomaly in the record. The EAP and the NAO influence variability in Irish SST time-series on a smaller scale, with the EAP also contributing to the current warm anomaly. After resolving the prevalent oscillatory modes of variability in the SST record, the underlying warming trend compares well with the global greenhouse effect warming trend. The anthropogenic contribution to the current warm anomaly in Irish SSTs was estimated at 0.41°C for 2006, and this is predicted to increase annually.


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