Roles of meridional overturning in subpolar Southern Ocean SST trends: Insights from ensemble simulations

One of the most puzzling observed features of recent climate has been a multidecadal surface cooling trend over the subpolar Southern Ocean (SO). In this study we use large ensembles of simulations with multiple climate models to study the role of the SO meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in these sea surface temperature (SST) trends. We find that multiple competing processes play prominent roles, consistent with multiple mechanisms proposed in the literature for the observed cooling. Early in the simulations (20th century and early 21st century) internal variability of the MOC can have a large impact, in part due to substantial simulated multidecadal variability of the MOC. Ensemble members with initially strong convection (and related surface warming due to convective mixing of subsurface warmth to the surface) tend to subsequently cool at the surface as convection associated with internal variability weakens. A second process occurs in the late 20th and 21st centuries, as weakening of oceanic convection associated with global warming and high latitude freshening can contribute to the surface cooling trend by suppressing convection and associated vertical mixing of subsurface heat. As the simulations progress, the multidecadal SO variability is suppressed due to forced changes in the mean state and increased oceanic stratification. As a third process, the shallower mixed layers can then rapidly warm due to increasing forcing from greenhouse gas warming. Also, during this period the ensemble spread of SO SST trend partly arises from the spread of the wind-driven Deacon cell strength. Thus, different processes could conceivably have led to the observed cooling trend, consistent with the range of possibilities presented in the literature. To better understand the causes of the observed trend it is important to better understand the characteristics of internal low-frequency variability in the SO and the response of that variability to global warming.

Impact of the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) on Foraminiferal and Calcareous Nannofossil Assemblages in the Neo-Tethyan Baskil Section (Eastern Turkey): Paleoenvironmental and Paleoclimatic Reconstructions

The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO; ~40 Ma), which interrupted for ~500–600 kyr the long-term cooling trend culminating at the Eocene/Oligocene boundary, still requires a comprehensive understanding of the biotic resilience. Here we present a high-resolution integrated foraminiferal and calcareous nannofossil study across the MECO from the expanded and continuous Tethyan Baskil section (eastern Turkey) that offers a complete magneto-biostratigraphic and geochemical framework. The five MECO phases identified reveal a transition from oligotrophic (pre-MECO) to eu-mesotrophic conditions, possibly related to accelerated hydrological cycle, during the initial MECO and MECO δ13C negative excursion phases. The MECO WARMING PEAK phase, marking the highest carbonate dissolution interval, records the most striking biotic changes, such as peak in warm and eutrophic nannofossils, virtual disappearance of the oligotrophic planktic foraminiferal large Acarinina and Morozovelloides, and peak in eutrophic deep dwellers Subbotina. Benthic foraminifera suggest in this phase an improvement in the quality of organic matter to the seafloor. The post-MECO phase shows only a partial recovery of the pre-event conditions. Large Acarinina and Morozovelloides did not recover their abundance, possibly due to cooler conditions in this phase. Our reconstruction reveals how paleoenvironment and marine biota from the studied Neo-Tethyan setting reacted to the MECO perturbations.

Uneven spatial sampling distorts reconstructions of Phanerozoic seawater temperature

Paleotemperature proxy records are widely used to reconstruct the global climate throughout the Phanerozoic and to test macroevolutionary hypotheses. However, the spatial distribution of these records varies through time. This is problematic because heat is unevenly distributed across Earth’s surface. Consequently, heterogeneous spatial sampling of proxy data has the potential to bias reconstructed temperature curves. We evaluated the spatiotemporal evolution of sampling using a compilation of Phanerozoic δ18O data. We tested the influence of variable spatial coverage on global estimates of paleotemperature by sampling a steep “modern-type” latitudinal temperature gradient and a flattened “Eocene-type” gradient, based on the spatial distribution of δ18O samples. We show that global paleotemperature is overestimated in ~70% of Phanerozoic stages. Perceived climatic trends for some intervals might be artifactually induced by shifts in paleolatitudinal sampling, with equatorward shifts in sampling concurring with warming trends, and poleward shifts concurring with cooling trends. Yet, the magnitude of some climatic perturbations might also be underestimated. For example, the observed Ordovician cooling trend may be underestimated due to an equatorward shift in sampling. Our findings suggest that while proxy records are vital for reconstructing Earth’s paleotemperature in deep time, consideration of the spatial nature of these data is crucial to improving these reconstructions.

Data-constrained assessment of ocean circulation changes since the middle Miocene in an Earth system model

Since the middle Miocene (15 Ma, million years ago), the Earth's climate has undergone a long-term cooling trend, characterised by a reduction in ocean temperatures of up to 7–8 ∘C. The causes of this cooling are primarily thought to be due to tectonic plate movements driving changes in large-scale ocean circulation patterns, and hence heat redistribution, in conjunction with a drop in atmospheric greenhouse gas forcing (and attendant ice-sheet growth and feedback). In this study, we assess the potential to constrain the evolving patterns of global ocean circulation and cooling over the last 15 Ma by assimilating a variety of marine sediment proxy data in an Earth system model. We do this by first compiling surface and benthic ocean temperature and benthic carbon-13 (δ13C) data in a series of seven time slices spaced at approximately 2.5 Myr intervals. We then pair this with a corresponding series of tectonic and climate boundary condition reconstructions in the cGENIE (“muffin” release) Earth system model, including alternative possibilities for an open vs. closed Central American Seaway (CAS) from 10 Ma onwards. In the cGENIE model, we explore uncertainty in greenhouse gas forcing and the magnitude of North Pacific to North Atlantic salinity flux adjustment required in the model to create an Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of a specific strength, via a series of 12 (one for each tectonic reconstruction) 2D parameter ensembles. Each ensemble member is then tested against the observed global temperature and benthic δ13C patterns. We identify that a relatively high CO2 equivalent forcing of 1120 ppm is required at 15 Ma in cGENIE to reproduce proxy temperature estimates in the model, noting that this CO2 forcing is dependent on the cGENIE model's climate sensitivity and that it incorporates the effects of all greenhouse gases. We find that reproducing the observed long-term cooling trend requires a progressively declining greenhouse gas forcing in the model. In parallel to this, the strength of the AMOC increases with time despite a reduction in the salinity of the surface North Atlantic over the cooling period, attributable to falling intensity of the hydrological cycle and to lowering polar temperatures, both caused by CO2-driven global cooling. We also find that a closed CAS from 10 Ma to present shows better agreement between benthic δ13C patterns and our particular series of model configurations and data. A final outcome of our analysis is a pronounced ca. 1.5 ‰ decline occurring in atmospheric (and ca. 1 ‰ ocean surface) δ13C that could be used to inform future δ13C-based proxy reconstructions.

Mantle heating at ca. 2 Ga by continental insulation: Evidence from granites and eclogites

Igneous and metamorphic rocks contain the mineralogical and geochemical record of thermally driven processes on Earth. The generally accepted thermal budget of the mantle indicates a steady cooling trend since the Archean. The geological record, however, indicates this simple cooling model may not hold true. Subduction-related eclogites substantially emerge in the rock record from 2.1 Ga to 1.8 Ga, indicating that average mantle thermal conditions cooled below a critical threshold for widespread eclogite preservation. Following this period, eclogite disappeared again until ca. 1.1 Ga. Coincident with the transient emergence of eclogite, global granite chemistry recorded a decrease in Sr and Eu and increases in yttrium and heavy rare earth element (HREE) concentrations. These changes are most simply explained by warming of the thermal regime associated with granite genesis. We suggest that warming was caused by increased continental insulation of the mantle at this time. Ultimately, secular cooling of the mantle overcame insulation, allowing the second emergence and preservation of eclogite from ca. 1.1 Ga until present.

Combining FY-3D MWTS-2 with AMSU-A Data for Inter-Decadal Diurnal Correction and Climate Trends of Atmospheric Temperature

Microwave temperature sounding observations from polar-orbiting meteorological satellites have been widely used for research on climate trends of atmospheric temperature at different heights around the world. Taking the Amazon rainforest as the target area, this study combined the Microwave Temperature Sounder-2 (MWTS-2) data onboard the Chinese FengYun-3D (FY-3D) satellite with the Advanced Microwave Sounding unit-A (AMSU-A) data onboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European Meteorological Operational (MetOp) polar-orbiting meteorological satellites (i.e., NOAA-15, −18, −19, MetOp-A, -B). The double difference method was used to estimate and thus eliminate the inter-sensor bias, and a decadal diurnal correction was used to reduce the impact of different local equator crossing times on climate trends. The “no-rain” conditions were determined for AMSU-A data by channels 1 and 15, and for MWTS-2 data by channels 1 and 7. Finally, the decadal linear trends of atmospheric temperature from 1998 to 2020 were obtained after applying the inter-sensor bias calibration and inter-decadal diurnal correction to AMSU-A and MWTS-2 data from NOAA-15, −18, −19; MetOp-A, -B; and FY-3D. A warming trend was found in the AMSU-A window and tropospheric channels (1–9 and 15) and a cooling trend in stratospheric channels (10–14). The warming (cooling) trends of channels 7–9 (10) were relatively small. The warming (cooling) trends of AMSU-A channels 1–6 (14–15) were significantly reduced after the inter-decadal diurnal correction.

A GA-Based BP Artificial Neural Network for Estimating Monthly Surface Air Temperature of the Antarctic during 1960–2019

The spatial sparsity and temporal discontinuity of station-based SAT data do not allow to fully understand Antarctic surface air temperature (SAT) variations over the last decades. Generating spatiotemporally continuous SAT fields using spatial interpolation represents an approach to address this problem. This study proposed a backpropagation artificial neural network (BPANN) optimized by a genetic algorithm (GA) to estimate the monthly SAT fields of the Antarctic continent for the period 1960–2019. Cross-validations demonstrate that the interpolation accuracy of GA-BPANN is higher than that of two benchmark methods, i.e., BPANN and multiple linear regression (MLR). The errors of the three interpolation methods feature month-dependent variations and tend to be lower (larger) in warm (cold) months. Moreover, the annual SAT had a significant cooling trend during 1960–1989 (trend = −0.07°C/year; p = 0.04 ) and a significant warming trend during 1990–2019 (trend = 0.06°C/year; p = 0.05 ). The monthly SAT did not show consistent cooling or warming trends in all months, e.g., SAT did not show a significant cooling trend in January and December during 1960–1989 and a significant warming trend in January, June, July, and December during 1990–2019. Furthermore, the Antarctic SAT decreases with latitude and the distance away from the coastline, but the eastern Antarctic is overall colder than the western Antarctic. Spatiotemporal inconsistencies on SAT trends are apparent over the Antarctic continent, e.g., most of the Antarctic continent showed a cooling trend during 1960–1989 (trend = −0.20∼0°C/year; p = 0.01 ∼ 0.27 ) with a peak over the central part of the eastern Antarctic continent, while the entire Antarctic continent showed a warming trend during 1990–2019 (trend = 0∼0.10°C/year; p = 0.04 ∼ 0.42 ) with a peak over the higher latitudes.

East Antarctic cooling induced by decadal changes in Madden-Julian oscillation during austral summer

While West Antarctica has experienced the most significant warming in the world, a profound cooling trend in austral summer was observed over East Antarctica (30°W to 150°E, 70° to 90°S) from 1979 to 2014. Previous studies attributed these changes to high-latitude atmospheric dynamics, stratospheric ozone change, and tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. We show that up to 20 to 40% of the observed summer cooling trend in East Antarctica was forced by decadal changes of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). Both observational analysis and climate model experiments indicate that the decadal changes in the MJO, characterized by less (more) atmospheric deep convection in the Indian Ocean (western Pacific) during the recent two decades, led to the net cooling trend over East Antarctica through modifying atmospheric circulations linked to poleward-propagating Rossby wave trains. This study highlights that changes in intraseasonal tropical climate patterns may result in important climate change over Antarctica.