The Role of Latent Heating Anomalies in Exciting the Summertime Eurasian Circulation Trend Pattern and High Surface Temperature

Dynamical mechanisms for the summer Eurasian circulation trend pattern are investigated by analyzing reanalysis data and conducting numerical model simulations. The daily circulations that resemble the Eurasian circulation trend pattern are identified and categorized into two groups based on surface warming signal over central and eastern Europe. In the group with large warm anomaly, the upper-level circulation takes on a wave packet form over Eurasia, and there are enhanced latent heating anomalies centered over the North Sea and suppressed latent heating anomalies over the Caspian Sea. The numerical model calculations indicate that these latent heating anomalies can excite an upper-level circulation response that resembles the Eurasian circulation trend pattern. Additional analysis indicates that trends of these two latent heating centers contribute to the long-term circulation trend. In the weak warm anomaly group, the circulation pattern takes on a circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern, and there is no heating signal that reinforces the circulation. These results indicate that not all CGT-like patterns excite temperature anomalies which are persistent and in phase with the trend pattern, and that quasi-stationary forcings, such as the latent heating anomalies, play an important role in driving the boreal summer circulation anomaly that accompanies the strong and persistent surface temperature signal.

Roles of Rossby Waves, Rossby-Gravity Waves, and Gravity Waves Generated in the Middle Atmosphere for Interhemispheric Coupling

It has often been reported that warming at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) summer mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) appears during Arctic sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. This phenomenon, which is called “interhemispheric coupling (IHC)”, has been thought to occur because of the modulation of mesospheric meridional circulation driven by forcing of gravity waves (GWs) originating in the troposphere. However, quasi-two-day waves (QTDWs) develop during SSWs and result in strong wave forcing in the SH mesosphere. Thus, this study revisits IHC following Arctic SSWs from the viewpoint of wave forcing, not only by GWs and Rossby waves (RWs) originating in the troposphere but also by GWs, RWs, and Rossby-gravity waves generated in situ in the middle atmosphere, and elucidates the causes of warm anomalies in the SH MLT region. During SSWs, westward wind anomaly forms because of cold equatorial stratosphere, GW forcing is then modulated, and barotropic/baroclinic and shear instabilities are strengthened in the SH mesosphere. These instabilities generate QTDWs and GWs, respectively, which cause significant anomalous westward wave forcing, forming a warm anomaly in the SH MLT region. The intra-seasonal variation in QTDW activity can explain seasonal dependence of the time lag in IHC. Moreover, it is revealed that the cold equatorial stratosphere is formed by middle-atmosphere Hadley circulation, which is strengthened by wave forcing associated with stationary RW breaking leading to SSWs. The IHC mechanism revealed in this study indicates that waves generated in the middle atmosphere contribute significantly to the meridional circulation, especially during SSWs.

Persistent El Nino driven shifts in marine cyanobacteria populations

<p>From 2014 through 2016, a significant El Niño event and the North Pacific warm anomaly (a.k.a., “the blob”) resulted in a marine heatwave across the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. To develop a deeper understanding of the impacts of El Niño on the Southern California Bight (SCB), we used coastal cyanobacteria populations in order to “bi-directionally” link shifts in microbial diversity and biogeochemical conditions. We sequenced the <em>rpo</em>C1 gene from the ecologically important picocyanobacteria <em>Prochlorococcus</em> and <em>Synechococcus</em> at 434 time points from 2009–2018 in the MICRO time series at Newport Beach, CA. Across the time series, we observed an increase in the abundance of <em>Prochlorococcus</em> relative to <em>Synechococcus</em> as well as elevated frequencies of clades commonly associated with low-nutrient and high-temperature conditions. The relationships between environmental and diversity trends appeared to operate on differing temporal scales. In addition, microdiverse populations from the <em>Prochlorococcous</em> HLI clade as well as <em>Synechococcus</em> Clade II that shifted in response to the 2015 El Niño did not return to their pre-heatwave composition by the end of this study. This research demonstrates that El Niño-driven warming in the SCB can result in persistent changes in key microbial populations.</p>

Lagrangian analysis of the dynamical and thermodynamic drivers of large-scale Greenland melt events during 1979-2017

<p>We systematically investigate the dynamical and thermodynamic processes that lead to 77 large-scale melt events affecting high-elevation regions of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in June-August (JJA) 1979-2017. For that purpose, we compute 8 day kinematic backward trajectories from the lowermost ~500 m above the GrIS. The key synoptic feature accompanying the melt events is an upper-tropospheric ridge over Southeast Greenland associated with a surface high-pressure system. This circulation pattern is favorable to induce rapid poleward transport (up to 40° latitude) of warm (~15 K warmer than climatological air masses arriving on the GrIS) and moist air masses from the lower troposphere to the western GrIS and subsequently to distribute them in the anticyclonic flow over north and east Greenland. During transport to the GrIS, the melt event air masses cool by ~15 K due to ascent and radiation, which keeps them just above the critical threshold to induce melting.</p><p>The thermodynamic analyses reveal that the final warm anomaly of the air masses is primarily owed to anomalous horizontal transport from a climatologically warm region of origin. However, before being transported to the GrIS, i.e., in their region of origin, these air masses were not anomalously warm. Latent heating from condensation of water vapor, occurring as the airstreams are forced to ascend orographically or dynamically, is of secondary importance. These characteristics were particularly pronounced during the most extensive melt event in early July 2012. In this event, importantly, the warm anomaly was not preserved from anomalously warm source regions such as North America experiencing a record heat wave. Considering the impact of moisture on the surface energy balance, we find that radiative effects are closely linked to the air mass trajectories and enhance melt over the entire GrIS accumulation zone due to (i) enhanced downward longwave radiation related to poleward moisture transport and a shift in the cloud phase from ice to liquid primarily west of the ice divide and (ii) increased shortwave radiation in clear-sky regions east of the ice divide.</p><p>The temporal evolution, positioning, and intensity of synoptic scale weather systems deserve further attention as they are responsible for strong and partly opposing atmospheric forcing of the GrIS surface mass balance. Also, the mechanisms identified here are in contrast to melt events in the low-elevation high Arctic and to midlatitude heat waves, where the upper-tropospheric ridge is essential to induce adiabatic warming by large-scale subsidence. Given the ongoing increase in the frequency and the melt extent of large-scale melt events, the understanding of upper-tropospheric ridges over the North Atlantic, i.e., also Greenland blocking, and its representation in climate models is crucial in determining future GrIS accumulation zone melt and thus global sea level rise. </p>

Oceanic Response Based on the Rectified Data during Three Typhoons in the northern South China Sea

Three typhoons (Rammasun, Kalmaegi, and Sarika) travelled through the deployed stations in the northern South China Sea from 2014–2016. During the passage of typhoons, strong winds and vigorous currents resulted in horizontal displacement of buoy over 2000 m, vertical displacement of ropes on buoys as much as 200 m. The rectification can correct the warm anomaly to cool anomaly of temperature. These movements lead to biases of raw data, with temperature bias as much as 4°C, salinity as much as 0.05 psu, velocity bias as much as 0.4 m/s. The crosscheck of current velocity from different instruments shows that the bias of overlapping velocity and correlation coefficient after depth rectification obviously enhances. The observation shows that temperature cools 1.5 °C, and 0.1 psu saltier in maximum, the near-inertial current increases to 0.4 m/s in the upper layer. The inertial kinetic energy propagates downward with the upward phase, and the maximum depth can reach over 2000 m.

Convective Coupling in Tropical-Depression-Type Waves. Part I: Rainfall Characteristics and Moisture Structure

Tropical-depression (TD)-type waves are synoptic-scale disturbances embedded with deep convection over the western North Pacific. Studies of these disturbances began over six decades ago; however, some properties of these disturbances remain vague, e.g., the coupling mechanism between the deep convection and the waves. This two-part study aims to examine the rainfall progression in TD-type disturbances and associated tropospheric moisture controlling convective rainfall. Part I investigates the rainfall and moisture characteristics of TD-type waves using TRMM-derived rainfall products and the ERA-Interim data during the period of June–October 1998–2013. The rainfall features a north–south asymmetrical pattern with respect to a TD-type disturbance, with enhanced convective and stratiform rainfall occurring in the southern portion. Along with the northwestward propagation, deep convective and stratiform rainfall occur in phase with the TD-type disturbance without significant preceding shallow convective rainfall. Following the deepest convection, shallow convective rainfall increases in the anomalous southerlies. Such a rainfall progression differs from the paradigm from shallow to deep convection, then to stratiform rainfall, which is suggested in other convectively coupled equatorial waves. The rainfall progression and the atmospheric moisture anomaly are phase locked to the TD-type disturbances such that the relative displacements change little when the disturbances propagate northwestward. The latent heat release in deep convection, which is obtained from the TRMM 3G25 dataset, superposes with a broad warm anomaly in the mid- to upper troposphere, suggesting wave growth through the generation of available potential energy from diabatic heating.

A Lagrangian analysis of the dynamical and thermodynamic drivers of large-scale Greenland melt events during 1979–2017

In this study, we systematically investigate the dynamical and thermodynamic processes that lead to 77 large-scale melt events affecting high-elevation regions of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in June–August (JJA) 1979–2017. For that purpose, we compute 8 d kinematic backward trajectories from the lowermost ∼500 m above the GrIS during these events. The key synoptic feature accompanying the melt events is an upper-tropospheric ridge southeast of the GrIS associated with a surface high-pressure system. This circulation pattern is favorable to induce rapid poleward transport (up to 40∘ latitude) of warm (∼15 K warmer than climatological air masses arriving on the GrIS) and moist air masses from the lower troposphere to the western GrIS and subsequently to distribute them in the anticyclonic flow over north and east Greenland. During transport to the GrIS, the melt event air masses cool by ∼15 K due to ascent and radiation, which keeps them just above the critical threshold to induce melting. The thermodynamic analyses reveal that the final warm anomaly of the air masses is primarily owed to anomalous horizontal transport from a climatologically warm region of origin. However, before being transported to the GrIS, i.e., in their region of origin, these air masses were not anomalously warm. Latent heating from condensation of water vapor, occurring as the airstreams are forced to ascend orographically or dynamically, is of secondary importance. These characteristics were particularly pronounced during the most extensive melt event in early July 2012, where, importantly, the warm anomaly was not preserved from anomalously warm source regions such as North America experiencing a record heat wave. The mechanisms identified here are in contrast to melt events in the low-elevation high Arctic and to midlatitude heat waves, where adiabatic warming by large-scale subsidence is essential. Considering the impact of moisture on the surface energy balance, we find that radiative effects are closely linked to the air mass trajectories and enhance melt over the entire GrIS accumulation zone due to (i) enhanced downward longwave radiation related to poleward moisture transport and a shift in the cloud phase from ice to liquid primarily west of the ice divide and (ii) increased shortwave radiation in clear-sky regions east of the ice divide. Given the ongoing increase in the frequency and the melt extent of large-scale melt events, the understanding of upper-tropospheric ridges over the North Atlantic, i.e., also Greenland blocking, and its representation in climate models is crucial in determining future GrIS accumulation zone melt and thus global sea level rise.

Recent atmospheric drying in Siberia is not unprecedented over the last 1,500 years

Newly developed millennial δ13C larch tree-ring chronology from Siberia allows reconstruction of summer (July) vapor pressure deficit (VPD) changes in a temperature-limited environment. VPD increased recently, but does not yet exceed the maximum values reconstructed during the Medieval Warm Anomaly. The most humid conditions in the Siberian North were recorded in the Early Medieval Period and during the Little Ice Age. Increasing VPD under elevated air temperature affects the hydrology of these sensitive ecosystems by greater evapotranspiration rates. Further VPD increases will significantly affect Siberian forests most likely leading to drought and forest mortality even under additional access of thawed permafrost water. Adaptation strategies are needed for Siberian forest ecosystems to protect them in a warming world.

Remote Tropical Western Indian Ocean Forcing on Changes in June Precipitation in South China and the Indochina Peninsula

In this study, remote influence originating from the tropical western Indian Ocean on June precipitation in South China and the Indochina Peninsula is documented. Based on numerical simulation and statistical analysis, it is noted that the warm anomaly in the tropical western Indian Ocean can induce a weaker-than-normal Walker circulation across the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific Ocean. This further leads to a northeast–southwest-oriented western North Pacific subtropical high and a weaker-than-normal monsoon trough in the South China Sea. In addition, the weak monsoon trough is concurrent with an anomalous rising motion in South China and a sinking motion in the Indochina Peninsula. This enhances precipitation in South China and suppresses precipitation in the Indochina Peninsula on an interannual time scale. On the other hand, the warming trend in the tropical western Indian Ocean also supports the long-term trends of precipitation in the two regions.