The identification of critical fluctuations and phase transitions in short term and coarse-grained time series—a method for the real-time monitoring of human change processes

2010 ◽  
Vol 102 (3) ◽  
pp. 197-207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Günter Schiepek ◽  
Guido Strunk
Author(s):  
Mark Bognanni

Economic data are routinely revised after they are initially released. I examine the extent to which the real-time reliability of six monthly macroeconomic indicators important to policymakers has remained stable over time by studying the time-series properties of their short-term and long-term revisions. I show that the revisions to many monthly economic indicators display systematic behaviors that policymakers could build into their real-time assessments. I also find that some indicators’ revision series have varied substantially over time, suggesting that these indicators may now be less useful in real time than they once were. Lastly, I find that substantial revisions tend to occur indefinitely after the initial data release, a result which suggests a certain degree of caution is in order when using even thrice-revised monthly data in policymaking.


2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (26) ◽  
pp. 17187-17198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marshall R. Ligare ◽  
Grant E. Johnson ◽  
Julia Laskin

Real-time monitoring of the gold cluster synthesis by electrospray ionization mass spectrometry reveals distinct formation pathways for Au8, Au9 and Au10 clusters.


2015 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 627-647 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ángel Cuevas ◽  
Enrique M. Quilis ◽  
Antoni Espasa

Abstract In this article we propose a methodology for estimating the GDP of a country’s different regions, providing quarterly profiles for the annual official observed data. Thus the article offers a new instrument for short-term monitoring that allows the analysts to quantify the degree of synchronicity among regional business cycles. Technically, we combine time-series models with benchmarking methods to process short-term quarterly indicators and to estimate quarterly regional GDPs ensuring their temporal and transversal consistency with the National Accounts data. The methodology addresses the issue of nonadditivity, explicitly taking into account the transversal constraints imposed by the chain-linked volume indexes used by the National Accounts, and provides an efficient combination of structural as well as short-term information. The methodology is illustrated by an application to the Spanish economy, providing real-time quarterly GDP estimates, that is, with a minimum compilation delay with respect to the national quarterly GDP. The estimated quarterly data are used to assess the existence of cycles shared among the Spanish regions.


Author(s):  
Neng Huang ◽  
Junxing Zhu ◽  
Chaonian Guo ◽  
Shuhan Cheng ◽  
Xiaoyong Li

With the rapid development of mobile Internet, there is a higher demand for the real-time, reliability and availability of information systems and to prevent the possible systemic risks of information systems, various business consistency standards and regulatory guidelines have been published, such as Recovery Time Object (RTO) and Recovery Point Object (RPO). Some of the current related researches focus on the standards, methods, management tools and technical frameworks of business consistency, while others study the data consistency algorithms in the cases of large data, cloud computing and distributed storage. However, few researchers have studied on how to monitor the data consistency and RPO of production-disaster recovery, and what architecture and technology should be applied in the monitoring. Moreover, in some information systems, due to the complex structures and distributions of data, it is difficult for traditional methods to quickly detect and accurately locate the first error data. Besides, due to the separation of production data center (PDC) and disaster recovery data center (DRDC), it is difficult to calculate the data difference and RPO between the two centers. This paper first discusses the architecture of remote distributed DRDCs. The architecture can make the disaster recovery (DR) system always online and the data always readable, and support the real-time monitoring of data availability, consistency as well as other related indicators, in this way to make DRDC out-of-the-box in disasters. Second, inspired by blockchain, this paper proposes a method to realize real-time monitoring of data consistency and RTO by building hash chains for PDC and DRDC. Third, this paper evaluates the hash chain operations from the algorithm time complexity, the data consistency, and the validity of RPO monitoring algorithms and since DR system is actually a kind of distributed system, the proposed approach can also be applied to the data consistency detection and data difference monitoring in other distributed systems.


Forests ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 275 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valerie Pasquarella ◽  
Bethany Bradley ◽  
Curtis Woodcock

2005 ◽  
Vol 340 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazuhisa Okamoto ◽  
Kiyoshi Onai ◽  
Norihiko Ezaki ◽  
Toru Ofuchi ◽  
Masahiro Ishiura

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