South Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability: Coupled climate model simulations and projections under IPCC AR4

2007 ◽  
Vol 90 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 133-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. H. Kripalani ◽  
J. H. Oh ◽  
A. Kulkarni ◽  
S. S. Sabade ◽  
H. S. Chaudhari
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
Coupled Climate Model ◽  
South Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Ipcc Ar4

scholarly journals Remote and local drivers of Pleistocene South Asian summer monsoon precipitation: A test for future predictions

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (23) ◽  
pp. eabg3848
Author(s):  
Steven C. Clemens ◽  
Masanobu Yamamoto ◽  
Kaustubh Thirumalai ◽  
Liviu Giosan ◽  
Julie N. Richey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
Orbital Eccentricity ◽  
South Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer

South Asian precipitation amount and extreme variability are predicted to increase due to thermodynamic effects of increased 21st-century greenhouse gases, accompanied by an increased supply of moisture from the southern hemisphere Indian Ocean. We reconstructed South Asian summer monsoon precipitation and runoff into the Bay of Bengal to assess the extent to which these factors also operated in the Pleistocene, a time of large-scale natural changes in carbon dioxide and ice volume. South Asian precipitation and runoff are strongly coherent with, and lag, atmospheric carbon dioxide changes at Earth’s orbital eccentricity, obliquity, and precession bands and are closely tied to cross-equatorial wind strength at the precession band. We find that the projected monsoon response to ongoing, rapid high-latitude ice melt and rising carbon dioxide levels is fully consistent with dynamics of the past 0.9 million years.

South Asian summer monsoon in warm epochs of Mid-Holocene and end of 21st century; new insights from high resolution simulations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lekshmi Mudra B ◽  
Thazhe Purayil Sabin ◽  
Raghavan Krishnan
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
South Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indus Valley ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Northwest India

<p>The mid-Holocene (MH) was a warmer period, similar to the end of the 21st century climate under high emission realizations. The Indus valley civilization believed to be flourished under the expense of enhanced south Asian summer monsoon precipitation associated with the northward migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) during the mid-Holocene (MH). However, such an enhanced precipitation is not visible over the northwest India and Pakistan belt in future projection. The role of dynamical and various teleconnection factors behind the enhanced MH precipitation over the Indus valley region is still elusive due to the limitation of course resolution modelling efforts available so far as part of the various phases of Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Projects (PMIP).  To overcome this limitation, we have designed high resolution Paleo-climate simulations using a state-of-the-art variable resolution global climate model (LMDZ: Laboratoire Meteorologie Dynamique and Z stand for zoom) which configured with a 35 km spatial resolution over the South Asian region. We conducted various sensitivity experiments to understand the role of dynamics and teleconnection in enhancing monsoon precipitation over the Indus valley in addition to the MH orbital conditions. Boundary conditions from the PMIP-3, CMIP5 and HadISST datasets utilized for various sensitive experiments. High resolution, clearly demonstrates value addition in simulating the enhanced MH precipitation over Northwest India and adjoining Indus basin associated with the northward migration of the ITCZ and shift in the ascending branch of Hadley cell. We explored the role of various oceanic and atmospheric factors responsible for this enhanced Indus valley precipitation through linearized moisture budget analysis and comparing the relative strength and position of Hadley cell. By further decomposing the thermodynamic and dynamic term into their advection and divergence component, we could demonstrate the role of moisture convergence due to the strengthened atmospheric circulation through the oceanic teleconnection, which additionally  plays a crucial role in enhanced MH precipitation comparing to the dynamical factors. Idealized simulation with the end of 21<sup>st</sup> century warm condition with the MH orbital forcing and various teleconnection patterns affirms that the thermodynamically induced future precipitation and circulation changes, may not be adequate to make a profound shift in the northern limit of the ITCZ towards its MH locale rather producing enhanced precipitation over the north Indian ocean and localized extreme precipitation over Indian landmass.</p><p><strong>Keywords: </strong>Indus Valley civilization, Mid-Holocene, Monsoons, Teleconnection, ITCZ and Hadley circulation</p>

Investigating the sensitivity of the onset and withdrawal of the south Asian summer monsoon system to changes in anthropogenic emissions using a climate model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiwansha Mishra ◽  
Dilip Ganguly ◽  
Puneet Sharma
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
South Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
The South ◽  
Monsoon System ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
The Impact

<p>While the monsoon onset is recognized as a rapid, substantial, and sustained increase in rainfall over large parts of south Asia, the withdrawal marks the return to dry conditions. Normally, the south Asian summer monsoon onset occurs around 1<sup>st</sup> June over extreme south of peninsular India, which gradually advances to extreme northwest of India by around 15<sup>th</sup> July. The withdrawal starts from northwest India from around 1st September and from extreme south peninsular India by around 30th September. The determinations of the onset and withdrawal dates of monsoon have great economic significance for this region as they influence many agriculture and water resource management decisions in one of the most highly populated regions of the world. Several studies involving global model simulations have shown that changing aerosol emissions could result in significant changes in the seasonal mean precipitation distribution over India. A few studies also show that presence of absorbing aerosols in the foothills of Himalayas and over the Tibetan plateau could increase the moisture convergence over India thereby causing an advancement and intensification of the monsoon precipitation. However, most of the previous studies, which investigated the impact of anthropogenic emissions on the monsoon, are limited to understanding the impact of various emission changes on the seasonal mean monsoon characteristics. In the present study, we try to understand the sensitivity of the onset and withdrawal period of the south Asian summer monsoon system to changes in anthropogenic emissions using a climate model (CESM1.2). We diagnose the onset and withdrawal of the south Asian monsoon by analyzing the variability in vertically integrated moisture transport (VIMT) over the south Asian region and following the definition of hydrologic onset and withdrawal index (HOWI) defined by Fasullo et al. (2002). We examined the effect of changing emissions anthropogenic aerosol, greenhouse gases and both on the onset and withdrawal of the south Asian summer monsoon system. Our preliminary results suggest that increases in the emissions of aerosols and greenhouse gases from anthropogenic sources from pre-industrial to present day could possibly result in significant delay in the onset and advancement in withdrawal of the south Asian summer monsoon system thereby shortening the length of the monsoon season. More results with greater detail will be presented.</p>

scholarly journals Suppression of south Asian summer monsoon precipitation in the 21st century

2009 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Moetasim Ashfaq ◽  
Ying Shi ◽  
Wen-wen Tung ◽  
Robert J. Trapp ◽  
Xueijie Gao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
South Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer
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