A system dynamics model for shipbuilding demand forecasting

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 236-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yujiro Wada ◽  
Kunihiro Hamada ◽  
Noritaka Hirata ◽  
Kazutaka Seki ◽  
Shinji Yamada
2013 ◽  
Vol 284-287 ◽  
pp. 3662-3666
Author(s):  
Tian Syung Lan ◽  
Chao Hua Kuo ◽  
Chu Ching Liang

Competitiveness of a company has been based on the ability of locating and solving the com-mercial troubles more quickly and effectively than other competitors. For small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), it is necessary to expand the boundaries of the traditional organizations and promote across-domain knowledge in different industries. Thus, the opportunities of industrial in-novation can be increased, and the bright future of the industry can also be confirmed. In Taiwan, there are numerous SMEs in various industries. Conducting and researching in resource conservation service innovation technology and transforming system are deemed to be important for modern enterprises. This research was aimed at building a service-oriented system for saving the energy and reducing discharges to perform a new mechanism of resource conservation services for SMEs. The project “Construction of System Dynamics Model on Service Strategy and Resource Management” was aimed to assist “Wai Cheong Electrical Engineering Co., Ltd.”at Chung Hsing Industry Park in Miaoli. The System Dynamics was primarily introduced into this project for per-formance analysis, so that the proposed performance evaluation model could be formulated. With the performance evaluation on the indicators, the overall performance structure was clarified as well. After the reliability analysis of the proposed model was verified, the data provided dynamic results on demand forecasting, quality control, and marketing management for decision making. Then, the effectiveness would be practically adjusted for different quality levels to predict the actual need. It’s the essential way to recognize the cost variation and observe other parameters of the marketing strategy. The strategy was effective to achieve the goals of removing the strategic planning con-straints and reducing resource consumption caused by improper decisions. In conclusion, the con-struction of this model would enhance the opportunity to succeed and achieve in the company’s op-timum profits when confronting the current dynamic and competitive market environment.


Author(s):  
Jianbo Yang ◽  
Xin Li ◽  
Qunyi Liu

Copper demand for a country's copper industry has a greater pull effect. China's copper consumption in 2015 has accounted for 50% of the world. The scientific forecast of China's copper demands trend is also an important basis for analyzing its future environmental impact. This paper assumes that China's economy will be developing high, medium and low scenarios, and forecasts economic and social indicators such as total GDP, population and per capita GDP in China from 2016 to 2030. Then, predicted the demand of copper resources in China from 2016 to 2030 by the combination of system dynamics model, vector autoregressive moving average model and inverted U-type empirical model. The results show that: (1) in 2020, 2025 and 2030, China's refined copper demand will be 13 Mt, 15 Mt and 15.5 Mt. (2) China's copper demand growth slowed down significantly from 2016-2030. (3) 2025-2030, China's copper resource demand is stable, into the platform of demand growth, the highest peak value in 2027 will be 15.5 Mt. (4) 2030 years later, China's copper resource demand will enter a slow decline.


2014 ◽  
Vol 535 ◽  
pp. 440-445
Author(s):  
Sheng Na Yang ◽  
Hua Guo ◽  
Yan Li ◽  
Jun Liang Liu

With the continuous development of city, urban water consumption is continuously increasing. But the earth's fresh water resources are limited. If you want to meet the urban development increases the amount of water, you must forecast for urban water demand in the future, water demand prediction is also should be formed. This research mainly adopts the method of system dynamics to predict the water demand of city over the next decade. Forecast of water demand to get accurate effective demand in the future by establishing a system dynamic model, which accuracy should tested and verified.


2010 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 59-62
Author(s):  
Patrick Einzinger ◽  
Günther Zauner ◽  
G. Ganjeizadeh-Rouhani

Systems ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 56
Author(s):  
Urmila Basu Mallick ◽  
Marja H. Bakermans ◽  
Khalid Saeed

Using Indian free-ranging dogs (FRD) as a case study, we propose a novel intervention of social integration alongside previously proposed methods for dealing with FRD populations. Our study subsumes population dynamics, funding avenues, and innovative strategies to maintain FRD welfare and provide societal benefits. We develop a comprehensive system dynamics model, featuring identifiable parameters customizable for any management context and imperative for successfully planning a widescale FRD population intervention. We examine policy resistance and simulate conventional interventions alongside the proposed social integration effort to compare monetary and social rewards, as well as costs and unintended consequences. For challenging socioeconomic ecological contexts, policy resistance is best overcome by shifting priority strategically between social integration and conventional techniques. The results suggest that social integration can financially support a long-term FRD intervention, while transforming a “pest” population into a resource for animal-assisted health interventions, law enforcement, and conservation efforts.


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