The Wadden Sea in transition - consequences of sea level rise

2017 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Becherer ◽  
Jacobus Hofstede ◽  
Ulf Gräwe ◽  
Kaveh Purkiani ◽  
Elisabeth Schulz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Wadden Sea

scholarly journals Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea

2018 ◽  
Vol 97 (3) ◽  
pp. 79-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bert L.A. Vermeersen ◽  
Aimée B.A. Slangen ◽  
Theo Gerkema ◽  
Fedor Baart ◽  
Kim M. Cohen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Wadden Sea ◽  
Recent Literature ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Level Change

AbstractRising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region.Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl.We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: the RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5.For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07±0.06m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018–30 (uncertainties representing 5–95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6mma−1for the 5th percentile of the RCP2.6 scenario to 9.1mma−1for the 95th percentile of the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period 2018–50, the differences between the scenarios increase, with projected changes of 0.16±0.12m for RCP2.6, 0.19±0.11m for RCP4.5 and 0.23±0.12m for RCP8.5. The accompanying rates of change range between 2.3 and 12.4mma−1in 2050. The differences between the scenarios amplify for the 2018–2100 period, with projected total changes of 0.41±0.25m for RCP2.6, 0.52±0.27m for RCP4.5 and 0.76±0.36m for RCP8.5. The projections for the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than the high-end projections presented in the 2008 Delta Commission Report (0.74m for 1990–2100) when the differences in time period are considered. The sea-level change rates range from 2.2 to 18.3mma−1for the year 2100.We also assess the effect of accelerated ice mass loss on the sea-level projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, as recent literature suggests that there may be a larger contribution from Antarctica than presented in IPCC AR5 (potentially exceeding 1m in 2100). Changes in episodic extreme events, such as storm surges, and periodic (tidal) contributions on (sub-)daily timescales, have not been included in these sea-level projections. However, the potential impacts of these processes on sea-level change rates have been assessed in the report.

scholarly journals Future Response of the Wadden Sea Tidal Basins to Relative Sea-Level rise—An Aggregated Modelling Approach

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lodder ◽  
Wang ◽  
Elias ◽  
van der Spek ◽  
de Looff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Wadden Sea ◽  
Dynamic Equilibrium ◽  
Tidal Inlet ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Tidal Basin ◽  
Critical Limit ◽  
Tidal Basins ◽  
Rise Rate

Climate change, and especially the associated acceleration of sea-level rise, forms a serious threat to the Wadden Sea. The Wadden Sea contains the world’s largest coherent intertidal flat area and it is known that these flats can drown when the rate of sea-level rise exceeds a critical limit. As a result, the intertidal flats would then be permanently inundated, seriously affecting the ecological functioning of the system. The determination of this critical limit and the modelling of the transient process of how a tidal basin responds to accelerated sea-level rise is of critical importance. In this contribution we revisit the modelling of the response of the Wadden Sea tidal basins to sea-level rise using a basin scale morphological model (aggregated scale morphological interaction between tidal basin and adjacent coast, ASMITA). Analysis using this aggregated scale model shows that the critical rate of sea-level rise is not merely influenced by the morphological equilibrium and the morphological time scale, but also depends on the grain size distribution of sediment in the tidal inlet system. As sea-level rises, there is a lag in the morphological response, which means that the basin will be deeper than the systems morphological equilibrium. However, so long as the rate of sea-level rise is constant and below a critical limit, this offset becomes constant and a dynamic equilibrium is established. This equilibrium deviation as well as the time needed to achieve the dynamic equilibrium increase non-linearly with increasing rates of sea-level rise. As a result, the response of a tidal basin to relatively fast sea-level rise is similar, no matter if the sea-level rise rate is just below, equal or above the critical limit. A tidal basin will experience a long process of ‘drowning’ when sea-level rise rate exceeds about 80% of the critical limit. The insights from the present study can be used to improve morphodynamic modelling of tidal basin response to accelerating sea-level rise and are useful for sustainable management of tidal inlet systems.

scholarly journals Tidal response to sea level rise and bathymetric changes in the German Wadden Sea

2020 ◽  
Vol 70 (8) ◽  
pp. 1033-1052 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benno Wachler ◽  
Rita Seiffert ◽  
Caroline Rasquin ◽  
Frank Kösters
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Wadden Sea ◽  
Bathymetric Changes ◽  
Tidal Response

scholarly journals Development of intertidal flats in the Dutch Wadden Sea in response to a rising sea level: Spatial differentiation and sensitivity to the rate of sea level rise

2022 ◽  
Vol 216 ◽  
pp. 105969
Author(s):  
Ymkje Huismans ◽  
Ad van der Spek ◽  
Quirijn Lodder ◽  
Robert Zijlstra ◽  
Edwin Elias ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Wadden Sea ◽  
Spatial Differentiation ◽  
Intertidal Flats ◽  
Rising Sea Level

scholarly journals Morphodynamic development and sediment budget of the Dutch Wadden Sea over the last century

2012 ◽  
Vol 91 (3) ◽  
pp. 293-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
E.P.L. Elias ◽  
A.J.F. van der Spek ◽  
Z.B. Wang ◽  
J. de Ronde
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Wadden Sea ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Tidal Basin ◽  
Sediment Volume ◽  
Tidal Basins ◽  
Present Rate ◽  
Continuous Sedimentation ◽  
Equilibrium Morphology

AbstractThe availability of nearly 100 years of bathymetric measurements allows the analysis of the morphodynamic evolution of the Dutch Wadden Sea under rising sea level and increasing human constraint. The historically observed roll-over mechanisms of landward barrier and coastline retreat cannot be sustained naturally due to numerous erosion control measures that have fixed the tidal basin and barrier dimensions. Nevertheless, the large continuous sedimentation in the tidal basins (nearly 600 million m3), the retained inlets and the similar channel-shoal characteristics of the basins during the observation period indicate that the Wadden Sea is resilient to anthropogenic influence, and can import sediment volumes even larger than those needed to compensate the present rate of sea-level rise. The largest sedimentation occurs in the Western Wadden Sea, where the influence of human intervention is dominant. The large infilling rates in closed-off channels, and along the basin shoreline, rather than a gradual increase in channel flat heights, render it likely that this sedimentation is primarily a response to the closure of the Zuiderzee and not an adaptation to sea-level rise. Most of the sediments were supplied by the ebb-tidal deltas. It is, however, unlikely that the sediment volume needed to reach a new equilibrium morphology in the Western Wadden Sea can be delivered by the remaining ebb-tidal deltas alone.

Are Wadden Sea tidal systems with a higher tidal range more resilient against sea level rise?

2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacobus L.A. Hofstede ◽  
Johannes Becherer ◽  
Hans Burchard
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Wadden Sea ◽  
Tidal Range
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