Comparative analyses of flood damage models in three Asian countries: towards a regional flood risk modelling

2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 229-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akinola Adesuji Komolafe ◽  
Srikantha Herath ◽  
Ram Avtar ◽  
Jean-Francois Vuillaume
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Risk Modelling ◽  
Comparative Analyses ◽  
Damage Models

scholarly journals Review Article: Validation of flood risk models: current practice and innovations

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Molinari ◽  
Karin De Bruijn ◽  
Jessica Castillo ◽  
Giuseppe T. Aronica ◽  
Laurens M. Bouwer
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Risk Modelling ◽  
Risk Estimates ◽  
Models Validation ◽  
Benchmark Solutions ◽  
Research Recommendations

Abstract. Although often neglected, model validation is a key topic in flood risk analysis, as flood risk estimates are characterised by significant levels of uncertainty. In this paper, we discuss the state of art of flood risk models validation, as concluded from the discussion among more than 50 experts at two main scientific events. The events aimed at identifying policy and research recommendations towards promoting more common practice of validation, and an improvement of flood risk models reliability. We pay specific attention to the different components of the risk modelling chain (i.e. flood hazard, defence failure and flood damage analysis) as well as to their role into risk estimates, to highlight specificities and commonalities with respect to implemented techniques and research needs. The main conclusions from this review can be summarised as the need of higher quality data to perform validation and of benchmark solutions to be followed in different contexts, along with a greater involvement of end-users in the debate on flood risk models validation.

scholarly journals A generic physical vulnerability model for floods: review and concept for data-scarce regions

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 2067-2090 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Bawa Malgwi ◽  
Sven Fuchs ◽  
Margreth Keiler
Keyword(s):  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Physical Vulnerability ◽  
Damage Models ◽  
Vulnerability Indicators ◽  
Damage Grades ◽  
Observed Damage

Abstract. The use of different methods for physical flood vulnerability assessment has evolved over time, from traditional single-parameter stage–damage curves to multi-parameter approaches such as multivariate or indicator-based models. However, despite the extensive implementation of these models in flood risk assessment globally, a considerable gap remains in their applicability to data-scarce regions. Considering that these regions are mostly areas with a limited capacity to cope with disasters, there is an essential need for assessing the physical vulnerability of the built environment and contributing to an improvement of flood risk reduction. To close this gap, we propose linking approaches with reduced data requirements, such as vulnerability indicators (integrating major damage drivers) and damage grades (integrating frequently observed damage patterns). First, we present a review of current studies of physical vulnerability indicators and flood damage models comprised of stage–damage curves and the multivariate methods that have been applied to predict damage grades. Second, we propose a new conceptual framework for assessing the physical vulnerability of buildings exposed to flood hazards that has been specifically tailored for use in data-scarce regions. This framework is operationalized in three steps: (i) developing a vulnerability index, (ii) identifying regional damage grades, and (iii) linking resulting index classes with damage patterns, utilizing a synthetic “what-if” analysis. The new framework is a first step for enhancing flood damage prediction to support risk reduction in data-scarce regions. It addresses selected gaps in the literature by extending the application of the vulnerability index for damage grade prediction through the use of a synthetic multi-parameter approach. The framework can be adapted to different data-scarce regions and allows for integrating possible modifications to damage drivers and damage grades.

scholarly journals INSYDE-BE: Adaptation of the INSYDE model to the Walloon Region (Belgium)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Rita Scorzini ◽  
Benjamin Dewals ◽  
Daniela Rodriguez Castro ◽  
Pierre Archambeau ◽  
Daniela Molinari
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Damage Model ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Original Model ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Residential Sector ◽  
Damage Models ◽  
Similarities And Differences ◽  
Walloon Region

Abstract. The spatial transfer of flood damage models among regions and countries is a challenging but unavoidable approach, for performing flood risk assessments in data and model scarce regions. In these cases, similarities and differences between the contexts of application should be considered to obtain reliable damage estimations and, in some cases, the adaptation of the original model to the new conditions is required. This study exemplifies a replicable procedure for the adaptation to the Belgian context of a multi-variable, synthetic flood damage model for the residential sector originally developed for Italy (INSYDE). The study illustrates necessary amendments in model assumptions, especially regarding input default values for the hazard and building parameters and damage functions describing the modelled damage mechanisms.

Flood risk modelling based on tangible and intangible urban flood damage quantification

2010 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 189-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. A. E. ten Veldhuis ◽  
F. H. L. R. Clemens
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Human Health Risk ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Call Centre ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Risk Modelling ◽  
Traffic Disturbance ◽  
Risk Curves

The usual way to quantify flood damage is by application stage-damage functions. Urban flood incidents in flat areas mostly result in intangible damages like traffic disturbance and inconvenience for pedestrians caused by pools at building entrances, on sidewalks and parking spaces. Stage-damage functions are not well suited to quantify damage for these floods. This paper presents an alternative method to quantify flood damage that uses data from a municipal call centre. The data cover a period of 10 years and contain detailed information on consequences of urban flood incidents. Call data are linked to individual flood incidents and then assigned to specific damage classes. The results are used to draw risk curves for a range of flood incidents of increasing damage severity. Risk curves for aggregated groups of damage classes show that total flood risk related to traffic disturbance is larger than risk of damage to private properties, which in turn is larger than flood risk related to human health. Risk curves for detailed damage classes show how distinctions can be made between flood risks related to many types of occupational use in urban areas. This information can be used to support prioritisation of actions for flood risk reduction. Since call data directly convey how citizens are affected by urban flood incidents, they provide valuable information that complements flood risk analysis based on hydraulic models.

Application of scenario technique in flood risk management

2007 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 87-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Winterscheid
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Limited Perspective ◽  
Integrated Flood Risk Management ◽  
Scenario Technique ◽  
Management Cycle

It is now commonly accepted that the management of flood risks has to be fulfilled within an integrated framework. About two decades ago flood risk was managed from a limited perspective predominantly by means of structural measures aimed at flood control. In contrast integrated flood risk management incorporates the complete management cycle consisting of the phases prevention, protection and preparedness. In theory it is a well described concept. In the stage of implementation, however, there is often a lack of support although a consistent policy framework exists. Consequently, the degree of implementation must be rated as inadequate in many cases. In particular this refers to the elements which focus on preparedness and prevention. The study to which this paper refers emphasises the means and potentials of scenario technique to foster the implementation of potentially appropriate measures and new societal arrangements when applied in the framework of integrated flood risk management. A literature review is carried out to reveal the state-of-the-art and the specific problem framework within which scenario technique is generally being applied. Subsequently, it is demonstrated that scenario technique is transferable to a policy making process in flood risk management that is integrated, sustainable and interactive. The study concludes with a recommendation for three applications in which the implementation of measures of flood damage prevention and preparedness is supported by scenario technique.

scholarly journals The added value of system robustness analysis for flood risk management illustrated by a case on the IJssel River

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. P. Mens ◽  
F. Klijn
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Robustness Analysis ◽  
Decision Criterion ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Common Basis ◽  
System Robustness ◽  
System Configurations

Abstract. Decision makers in fluvial flood risk management increasingly acknowledge that they have to prepare for extreme events. Flood risk is the most common basis on which to compare flood risk-reducing strategies. To take uncertainties into account the criteria of robustness and flexibility are advocated as well. This paper discusses the added value of robustness as an additional decision criterion compared to single-value flood risk only. We do so by quantifying flood risk and system robustness for alternative system configurations of the IJssel River valley in the Netherlands. We found that robustness analysis has added value in three respects: (1) it does not require assumptions on current and future flood probabilities, since flood consequences are shown as a function of discharge; (2) it shows the sensitivity of the system to varying discharges; and (3) it supports a discussion on the acceptability of flood damage. We conclude that robustness analysis is a valuable addition to flood risk analysis in support of long-term decision-making on flood risk management.

scholarly journals Raising risk preparedness by flood risk communication

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 1577-1595 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Maidl ◽  
M. Buchecker
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Information Needs ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Communication Strategy ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Risk Awareness ◽  
Local Authorities ◽  
Risk Preparedness

Abstract. During the last decade, most European countries have produced hazard maps of natural hazards, but little is known about how to communicate these maps most efficiently to the public. In October 2011, Zurich's local authorities informed owners of buildings located in the urban flood hazard zone about potential flood damage, the probability of flood events and protection measures. The campaign was based on the assumptions that informing citizens increases their risk awareness and that citizens who are aware of risks are more likely to undertake actions to protect themselves and their property. This study is intended as a contribution to better understand the factors that influence flood risk preparedness, with a special focus on the effects of such a one-way risk communication strategy. We conducted a standardized mail survey of 1500 property owners in the hazard zones in Zurich (response rate main survey: 34 %). The questionnaire included items to measure respondents' risk awareness, risk preparedness, flood experience, information-seeking behaviour, knowledge about flood risk, evaluation of the information material, risk acceptance, attachment to the property and trust in local authorities. Data about the type of property and socio-demographic variables were also collected. Multivariate data analysis revealed that the average level of risk awareness and preparedness was low, but the results confirmed that the campaign had a statistically significant effect on the level of preparedness. The main influencing factors on the intention to prepare for a flood were the extent to which respondents evaluated the information material positively as well as their risk awareness. Respondents who had never taken any previous interest in floods were less likely to read the material. For future campaigns, we therefore recommend repeated communication that is tailored to the information needs of the target population.

scholarly journals Ex post damage assessment: an Italian experience

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 901-916 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Molinari ◽  
S. Menoni ◽  
G. T. Aronica ◽  
F. Ballio ◽  
N. Berni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Collection ◽  
Damage Assessment ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Data Gathering ◽  
Recovery Phase ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Local Authorities ◽  
Damage Models ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
And Storage

Abstract. In recent years, awareness of a need for more effective disaster data collection, storage, and sharing of analyses has developed in many parts of the world. In line with this advance, Italian local authorities have expressed the need for enhanced methods and procedures for post-event damage assessment in order to obtain data that can serve numerous purposes: to create a reliable and consistent database on the basis of which damage models can be defined or validated; and to supply a comprehensive scenario of flooding impacts according to which priorities can be identified during the emergency and recovery phase, and the compensation due to citizens from insurers or local authorities can be established. This paper studies this context, and describes ongoing activities in the Umbria and Sicily regions of Italy intended to identifying new tools and procedures for flood damage data surveys and storage in the aftermath of floods. In the first part of the paper, the current procedures for data gathering in Italy are analysed. The analysis shows that the available knowledge does not enable the definition or validation of damage curves, as information is poor, fragmented, and inconsistent. A new procedure for data collection and storage is therefore proposed. The entire analysis was carried out at a local level for the residential and commercial sectors only. The objective of the next steps for the research in the short term will be (i) to extend the procedure to other types of damage, and (ii) to make the procedure operational with the Italian Civil Protection system. The long-term aim is to develop specific depth–damage curves for Italian contexts.

scholarly journals Large-scale application of the flood damage model RAilway Infrastructure Loss (RAIL)

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. 2357-2371 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patric Kellermann ◽  
Christine Schönberger ◽  
Annegret H. Thieken
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Structural Damage ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Damage Model ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Railway Infrastructure ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Experience has shown that river floods can significantly hamper the reliability of railway networks and cause extensive structural damage and disruption. As a result, the national railway operator in Austria had to cope with financial losses of more than EUR 100 million due to flooding in recent years. Comprehensive information on potential flood risk hot spots as well as on expected flood damage in Austria is therefore needed for strategic flood risk management. In view of this, the flood damage model RAIL (RAilway Infrastructure Loss) was applied to estimate (1) the expected structural flood damage and (2) the resulting repair costs of railway infrastructure due to a 30-, 100- and 300-year flood in the Austrian Mur River catchment. The results were then used to calculate the expected annual damage of the railway subnetwork and subsequently analysed in terms of their sensitivity to key model assumptions. Additionally, the impact of risk aversion on the estimates was investigated, and the overall results were briefly discussed against the background of climate change and possibly resulting changes in flood risk. The findings indicate that the RAIL model is capable of supporting decision-making in risk management by providing comprehensive risk information on the catchment level. It is furthermore demonstrated that an increased risk aversion of the railway operator has a marked influence on flood damage estimates for the study area and, hence, should be considered with regard to the development of risk management strategies.

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