Regional Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment Method Based on Risk Transforming Process

Drought risk management can effectively reduce drought losses and improve drought resistance capability, of which drought risk assessment is the core issue. This study evaluated the agricultural drought risk in Huaibei Plain of Anhui Province in China by the approach of constructing drought loss risk curves and risk distribution maps. The results showed that: 1) The drought events that occurred in northern regions (Huaibei and Suzhou) were with the characteristics of high-frequency and low-intensity, while in southern regions (Huainan and Bengbu), the occurring characteristics were low-frequency, high-intensity, and long-duration. 2) Without irrigation, Fuyang was the high-risk region with more than 80% potential yield loss rate, while Huainan was the relatively low-risk area with a potential yield loss of 50%. 3) Irrigation had a significant effect on reducing drought risk loss, while the efficiency was influenced by the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation. The irrigation scheme in study area still remains to be optimized based on the characteristics of precipitation and crop growth. This study established and practiced a quantitative framework for regional drought risk assessment by creating drought risk curves and risk maps, which have significant value in improving the regional agricultural drought risk management level.

Competing endogenous RNA network identifies mRNA biomarkers for overall survival of lung adenocarcinoma: two novel on-line precision medicine predictive tools

Background Individual mortality risk predicted curve at the individual level can provide valuable information for directing individual treatment decision. The present study attempted to explore potential post-transcriptional biological regulatory mechanism related with overall survival of lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) patients through competitive endogenous RNA (ceRNA) network and develop two precision medicine predictive tools for predicting the individual mortality risk curves for overall survival of LUAD patients. Methods Multivariable Cox regression analyses were performed to explore the potential prognostic indicators, which were used to construct a prognostic model for overall survival of LUAD patients. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess the predictive performance of prognostic model. Results There were 494 LUAD patients in model cohort and 233 LUAD patients in validation cohort. Differentially expressed mRNAs, miRNAs, and lncRNAs were identified between LUAD tissues and normal tissues. A ceRNA regulatory network was constructed on previous differentially expressed mRNAs, miRNAs, and lncRNAs. Fourteen mRNA biomarkers were identified as independent risk factors by multivariate Cox regression and used to develop a prognostic model for overall survival of LUAD patients. The C-indexes of prognostic model in model group were 0.786 (95% CI [0.744–0.828]), 0.736 (95% CI [0.694–0.778]) and 0.766 (95% CI [0.724–0.808]) for one year, two year and three year overall survival respectively. Two precision medicine predicted tools were developed for predicting individual mortality risk curves for LUAD patients. Conclusion The current study explored potential post-transcriptional biological regulatory mechanism and prognostic biomarkers for overall survival of LUAD patients. Two on-line precision medicine predictive tools were helpful to predict the individual mortality risk predicted curves for overall survival of LUAD patients. Smart Cancer Survival Predictive System could be used at https://zhangzhiqiao2.shinyapps.io/Smart_cancer_predictive_system_9_LUAD_E1002/.

Deriving fluvial and pluvial flood risk curves using large ensemble climate simulation data with a fast 2-D flood model: A case study in Nagoya City, Japan

<p>Against flood disasters to be intensified in a future climate, we are required to implement adaptation strategies on a limited budget. In urban areas, heavy rainfall-based floods are classified into two types: pluvial and fluvial floods. It is well known that fluvial floods cause deeper inundation and stronger fluid force while pluvial ones occur more frequently. Such hydrodynamic characteristics have been intensively discussed in a literature; however, their impact and the resulting damage have not yet been examined in a comprehensive manner due to small samples of storm events in one region that leads to high uncertainty in frequency analysis. In the context of climate change impact assessment on extreme events, considerable ensembles of climate data have become available, contributing to smaller uncertainty in frequency analysis of flood damages. This study presents a case study of frequency estimation of fluvial and pluvial floods in an urban area set in Nagoya City, Japan. We applied a large ensemble climate simulation database, d4PDF, to a combined pluvial and fluvial flood model, from which we derived flood risk curves for each type of flooding. The results indicated that pluvial flooding presents comparable economic risk to fluvial flooding (16% and 17% lesser damage at 50- and 100-year return periods, respectively) despite its significantly shallower flood depths (area with flood depth over 45 cm was only 10.5% and 5.4%, respectively). This is because pluvial floods widely occur over the city, including areas further away from the river. Furthermore, probably similar with other mega cities with long history, fluvial flood risk has been managed by settling the central economic district (originally the Nagoya Castle founded several centuries ago) on higher altitudes. The results suggest that pluvial flooding could have comparable economic risks to fluvial flooding in urban areas where major economic assets are widely sprawled over the city as well as historical countermeasures are implemented against fluvial flooding. Pluvial floods, countermeasures against which tend to be smaller than fluvial floods, should be managed at a comparable level in urban areas.</p>

Project Completion Report Analysis: Implications for the Portfolio

This investigation builds on the Alvarez et al. (2021) Project Completion Report (PCR) analysis and its aim is to assess the implications of that study for the current portfolio of projects under execution at the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). We use the sample of PCRs which reached operational closure (CO) in 2017 and 2018 to estimate the impact that design and execution performance characteristics of projects played in the likelihood of ending as successful and/or effective. Based on the estimated coefficients, we construct risk curves to isolate the effect specific characteristics have on the likelihood of a project being classified as unsuccessful/ineffective. We then use the estimated coefficients and, using the actual values for the current portfolio of projects in execution, identify the fraction of the portfolio that is at risk of ending as unsuccessful/ineffective projects. According to our analysis, of the 249 projects assessed, 39 have a 50% or less chance of being successful. Thirteen (13) projects have less than a 10% chance. For about 70% of the projects analyzed, given the characteristics they exhibit, the likelihood that they end up successful has already been curtailed. The type of analysis presented here can help IDB Management identify key performance indicators to keep track of during execution to periodically assess the level of risk it is willing to accept in terms of projects ending unsuccessful/ineffective as rated by the current PCR methodology.