Characteristics of a new regional seismic-intensity prediction equation for Spain

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (3) ◽  
pp. 817-832
Author(s):  
Julio Mezcua ◽  
Juan Rueda ◽  
Rosa M. García Blanco
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Equation ◽  
Seismic Intensity ◽  
Intensity Prediction

Developing the First Intensity Prediction Equation Based on the Environmental Scale Intensity: A Case Study from Strong Normal-Faulting Earthquakes in the Italian Apennines

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (5) ◽  
pp. 2611-2623 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Francesca Ferrario ◽  
Franz Livio ◽  
Stefano Serra Capizzano ◽  
Alessandro M. Michetti
Keyword(s):  
Time Window ◽  
Near Field ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Prediction Equation ◽  
Seismic Intensity ◽  
Intensity Prediction ◽  
Empirical Relations ◽  
Italian Apennines ◽  
Local Intensity ◽  
Esi Scale

Abstract Earthquakes produce effects on the built and natural environment, the severity of which decays with distance from the epicenter. Empirical relations describing the intensity attenuation with distance are fundamental for seismic hazard assessment and for deriving parameters for preinstrumental events. Seismic intensity is usually assigned based on damage to buildings and infrastructures; this can be challenging for intensity degrees higher than X or when macroseismic fields of multiple events close in time are overlapping. A complementary approach is the study of earthquake environmental effects (EEEs), which are used to assign intensity on the environmental scale intensity (ESI) scale. However, a quantitative comparison between the ESI and traditional scales, and an equation describing the ESI attenuation with distance are still lacking. Here, we analyze 14 historical and instrumental events (time window 1688–2016) in the central and southern Apennines (Italy), comparing ESI and Mercalli–Cancani–Sieberg (MCS) intensities. Our results show that ESI consistently provides higher intensity near the epicenter and the attenuation is steeper than MCS. We derive the first intensity prediction equation for the ESI scale, which computes local intensity as a function of distance and epicentral intensity value. We document that, in the near field, the MCS attenuation for shallow crustal events occurred in the twenty-first century is steeper than previous events, whereas the ESI attenuation shows a consistent behavior through time. This result questions the reliability of current empirical relations for the investigation of future events. We recommend including EEEs in intensity assignments because they can guarantee consistency through time and help in evaluating the spatial and temporal evolution of damage progression during seismic sequences, thus ultimately improving seismic risk assessment.

scholarly journals On the Effect of Synthetic and Real Data Properties on Seismic Intensity Prediction Equations

2019 ◽  
Vol 176 (10) ◽  
pp. 4261-4275
Author(s):  
Roman N. Vakarchuk ◽  
Päivi Mäntyniemi ◽  
Ruben E. Tatevossian
Keyword(s):  
Real Data ◽  
Seismic Intensity ◽  
Prediction Equations ◽  
Intensity Prediction

Intensity Prediction Equation for Austria: Applications and analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
María del Puy Papí Isaba ◽  
Stefan Weginger ◽  
Maria-Theresia Apoloner ◽  
Yan Jia ◽  
Helmut Hausmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Focal Depth ◽  
Prediction Equation ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Hypocentral Distance ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Local Site ◽  
Intensity Prediction ◽  
First Results ◽  
Epicentral Intensity ◽  
The Impact

<p>We present the results of the intensity prediction equation for Austria as a function of moment magnitude, focal depth and hypocentral distance from the source. This equation aims to be simple and correct to generate shakemaps in near-real-time for crisis management and risk assessment in terms of the impact of an earthquake. Before the model computation, the dataset was carefully selected from the Austrian Earthquake Catalogue (AEC). Then, the model was derived through two Ordinary Least Square Adjustments; the first one was used to calibrate the epicentral intensity, whereas the second one aimed to derive an intensity attenuation law. Additionally, first own-approach to remove local site effects was used to refine the model. In total, the used dataset includes 42 earthquakes befalling in Austria and border regions between 2004 and 2018. Their local magnitude varies between 3.0 and 5.4. In total, 3,214 IDPs with intensity values between III and VII-VIII (EMS-98) were used.</p><p>Applications and analysis of the model will be presented. Furthermore, first results to an Austrian hazard map based on intensities will be introduced.</p>

Development of wide-area seismic intensity prediction system using microtremor array survey in Banda Aceh

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takao Sasaki ◽  
Asril ◽  
Yoshinori Furumoto ◽  
Chisa Hikime ◽  
Tetsuya Oba
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Intensity ◽  
Wide Area ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Intensity Prediction ◽  
Banda Aceh

scholarly journals Reference soil condition for intensity prediction equations derived from seismological and geophysical data at seismic stations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Panzera ◽  
Paolo Bergamo ◽  
Donat Fäh
Keyword(s):  
Shear Wave ◽  
Wave Velocity ◽  
Shear Wave Velocity ◽  
Soil Condition ◽  
Prediction Equation ◽  
Geophysical Data ◽  
Seismic Stations ◽  
Intensity Prediction ◽  
Reference Soil ◽  
The Difference

Abstract In 2011, an amplification map achieved by macroseismic information was developed for Switzerland using the collection of macroseismic intensity observations of past earthquakes. For each village, a ΔIm was first derived, which reflects the difference between observed and expected macroseismic intensities from a region-specific intensity prediction equation. The ΔIm values are then grouped into geological/tectonic classes, which are then presented in the macroseismic amplification map. Both, the intensity prediction equation and the macroseismic amplification map are referenced to the same reference soil condition which so far was only roughly estimated. This reference soil condition is assessed in this contribution using geophysical and seismological data collected by the Swiss Seismological Service. Geophysical data consist of shear-wave velocity profiles measured at the seismic stations and earthquake recordings, used to retrieve empirical amplification functions at the sensor locations. Amplification functions are referenced to a generic rock profile (Swiss reference rock condition) that is well defined, and it is used for the national seismic hazard maps. Macroseismic amplification factors Af, derived from empirical amplification functions, are assigned to each seismic station using ground motion to intensity conversions. We then assess the factors dΔf defined as the difference between Af and ΔIm. The factor dΔf accounts for the difference between the reference soil condition for the intensity prediction equation and the Swiss reference rock. We finally analysed relationships between Af and proxies for shear-wave velocity profiles in terms of average shear-wave velocity over defined depth ranges, such as VS,30, providing an estimate of the reference shear velocity for the intensity prediction equation and macroseismic amplification map. This study allows linking macroseismic intensity observations with experimental geophysical data, highlighting a good correspondence within the uncertainty range of macroseismic observations. However, statistical significance tests point out that the seismic stations are not evenly distributed among the various geological–tectonic classes of the macroseismic amplification map and its revision could be planned merging classes with similar behaviour or by defining a new classification scheme.

New Intensity Prediction Equation for Iran

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Somayeh Ahmadzadeh ◽  
Gholam Javan Doloei ◽  
Hamid Zafarani
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Equation ◽  
Intensity Prediction

A New Ground Motion Prediction Equation for Japan Applicable up to M9 Mega-Earthquake

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 878-888 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nobuyuki Morikawa ◽  
◽  
Hiroyuki Fujiwara
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Prediction Equation ◽  
Seismic Intensity ◽  
Moment Magnitude ◽  
Motion Prediction ◽  
Ground Motion Prediction Equation ◽  
Ground Motion Prediction ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Complete Amplitude

In this study we suggest a new ground motion prediction equation applicable up to the moment magnitude 9 using the strong motion records from the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. We determined a base model with moment magnitude and the shortest distance from the source fault as parameters. In order to avoid overestimating amplitude atmagnitude larger than 8, we examined two models – a quadratic magnitude term and a linear magnitude term with a complete amplitude saturation term at someMw. We then adopt additional correction terms corresponding to amplification by deep sediments or shallow soft soils, and anomalous seismic intensity distribution in order to improve prediction.

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